The Golden Globes aren’t the most credible of awards, if only because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association isn’t the most discerning of groups, but attention must be paid. These are our predictions in the major film categories for this Sunday’s awards show:

Best Motion Picture — Drama

“Hell or High Water”

“Lion”

“Manchester by the Sea”

“Moonlight”

“Hacksaw Ridge”

Will win: “Manchester by the Sea”

Should win: “Moonlight”

My say: These are the two best narrative motion pictures of the year. “Manchester by the Sea” gets the edge thanks to the awards-season attention around Casey Affleck’s lead performance and Kenneth Lonergan’s longstanding credibility in show business. “Moonlight” achieves a radical transcension of stereotypes surrounding male sexuality and urban life in America.

Best Actress — Drama

Amy Adams, “Arrival”

Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Ruth Negga, “Loving”

Natalie Portman, “Jackie”

Will win: Isabelle Huppert

Should win: Natalie Portman

My say: Huppert is an icon and her performance in “Elle” is an immaculate portrait of grace and intelligence under extreme duress. But Portman gave a definitive portrayal of Jackie Kennedy, in which the character is at once present and absent, a ghost in her own home and life.

Best Actor — Drama

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Joel Edgerton, “Loving”

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”

Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”

Denzel Washington, “Fences”

Will win: Casey Affleck

Should win: Casey Affleck

My say: A Denzel Washington surprise is possible, but this category should deservedly belong to Affleck, whose performance in “Manchester by the Sea” is a masterpiece of suppression and understatement.

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

“20th Century Women”

“Deadpool”

“Florence Foster Jenkins”

“La La Land”

“Sing Street”

Will win: “La La Land”

Should win: “La La Land”

My say: This is the safest bet of the night as far as the movies categories are concerned. There is nothing stopping a victory for the musical tribute to Los Angeles, and all that the city’s represented to generations of dreamers.

Best Actress — Musical or Comedy

Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”

Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”

Hailee Steinfeld, “The Edge of Seventeen”

Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Will win: Emma Stone

Should win: Annette Bening

My say: Stone gives a wonderful performance in “La La Land” — she sings exceptionally well and offers the sort of real-world shadings and complications that only a top-level talent can provide — but Bening is authentically vibrant and vulnerable, smart and confused, in control and overwhelmed, in “20th Century Women.” It’s some of her best work ever.

Best Actor — Musical or Comedy

Colin Farrell, “The Lobster”

Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”

Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

Jonah Hill, “War Dogs”

Ryan Reynolds, “Deadpool”

Will win: Ryan Gosling

Should win: Colin Farrell

My say: Gosling is a winning song-and-dance jazz man in “La La Land,” and he continues shifting his image away from the sort of intensely dramatic parts that were once closely associated with him. But Farrell is even better in the absurdist, deadpan world of “The Lobster,” as a man tasked with finding a mate before he’s turned into the crustacean.