Just as last year's Tony Awards was essentially a contest between "Matilda" and "Kinky Boots" for Best New Musical, this year "A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder," an old-fashioned operetta which received the lion's share of nominations, and "Beautiful," the crowd-pleasing Carole King musical, are fighting it out, with "Aladdin" serving as a dark-horse candidate. The show airs on CBS/2 on Sunday night at 8 p.m.

While I personally think "Beautiful" will ultimately take the prize, my dislike of "Gentleman's Guide" is affecting my prediction. In any event, the four nominated musicals haven't really fired up the Broadway community. The question isn't what musical will win, but who really cares what wins.

The same goes for Best Play. The LBJ drama "All the Way" should win but that has more to do with it being a showcase for so many fine actors, like Bryan Cranston, who will probably take Best Actor in a Play.

Best Revival of a Play is interesting. "Twelfth Night" was a critical and commercial smash, but people also remember "The Glass Menagerie" fondly. Let's also not forget "A Raisin in the Sun," which received raves.

"Violet" deserves to win Best Revival of a Musical but it has unfortunately not caught on at the box office. "Les Miz" is raking in big bucks but many people are sick of it.

The first Broadway production of "Hedwig and the Angry Inch" is extremely exciting and should win. Neil Patrick Harris will no doubt win Best Actor in a Musical.

Audra McDonald will probably pick up her sixth Tony for her performance as Billie Holiday in "Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill." Jessie Mueller, who plays Carole King in "Beautiful," is expected to win Best Actress in a Musical, but Kelli O'Hara, who starred in "The Bridges of Madison County," could pull an upset.

Here's the real question for this year's Tony Awards: What will Hugh Jackman do in his attempt to outshine four-time host Neil Patrick Harris? Might they do a song-and-dance together? Likewise, will Carole King perform with the cast of "Beautiful"?

 

Complete List of Matt Windman's Tony Award predictions:

Best Play

Prediction: "All the Way"

I voted for: "Casa Valentina"

Best Musical

Prediction: "Beautiful"

I voted for: "Beautiful"

Best Revival of a Play

Prediction: "The Glass Menagerie"

I voted for: "Twelfth Night"

Best Revival of a Musical

Prediction: "Hedwig and the Angry Inch"

I voted for: "Violet"

Best Book of a Musical

Prediction: "A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder"

I voted for: "Beautiful"

Best Original Score

Prediction: "The Bridges of Madison County"

I voted for: "The Bridges of Madison County"

Best Actor in a Play

Prediction: Bryan Cranston ("All the Way")

I voted for: Mark Rylance ("Richard III")

Best Actress in a Play

Prediction: Audra McDonald ("Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill")

I voted for: Audra McDonald ("Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill")

Best Actor in a Musical

Prediction: Neil Patrick Harris ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

I voted for: Neil Patrick Harris ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

Best Actress in a Musical

Prediction: Jessie Mueller ("Beautiful")

I voted for: Sutton Foster ("Violet")

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Prediction: Mark Rylance ("Twelfth Night")

I voted for: Mark Rylance ("Twelfth Night")

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Prediction: Celia Keenan-Bolger ("The Glass Menagerie")

I voted for: Celia Keenan-Bolger ("The Glass Menagerie")

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Prediction: James Monroe Iglehart ("Aladdin")

I voted for: James Monroe Iglehart ("Aladdin")

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Prediction: Lena Hall ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

I voted for: Lena Hall ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Prediction: Beowulf Boritt ("Act One")

I voted for: Es Devlin ("Machinal")

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Prediction: Christopher Barreca ("Rocky")

I voted for: Alexander Dodge ("A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder")

Best Costume Design of a Play

Prediction: Jenny Tiramani ("Twelfth Night")

I voted for: Jenny Tiramani ("Twelfth Night")

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Prediction: Linda Cho ("A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder")

I voted for: Isabel Toledo ("After Midnight")

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Prediction: Natasha Katz ("The Glass Menagerie")

I voted for: Jane Cox ("Machinal")

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Prediction: Kevin Adams ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

I voted for: Kevin Adams ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

Best Sound Design of a Play

Prediction: Steve Canyon Kennedy ("Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill")

I voted for: Matt Tierney ("Machinal")

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Prediction: Tim O'Heir ("Hedwig and the Angry Inch")

I voted for: Brian Ronan ("Beautiful")

Best Direction of a Play

Prediction: Tim Carroll ("Twelfth Night")

I voted for: Tim Carroll ("Twelfth Night")

Best Direction of a Musical

Prediction: Darko Tresnjak ("A Gentleman's Guide to Love & Murder")

I voted for: Leigh Silverman ("Violet")

Best Choreography

Prediction: Warren Carlyle ("After Midnight")

I voted for: Warren Carlyle ("After Midnight")

Best Orchestrations

Prediction: Jason Robert Brown ("The Bridges of Madison County")

I voted for: Jason Robert Brown ("The Bridges of Madison County")