Australian Open surprises: Who will stun tennis fans this time?

Wednesday January 14, 2009 3:19 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

When the tennis year crackles to life at the Australian Open each January, unheralded players make stunning runs to their first Grand Slam final.

Consider the past three men’s runners-up: Marcos Baghdatis (unseeded, 2006), Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed, 2007) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (unseeded, 2008).

What emboldens these men? Do they negotiate the change from northern winter to Australian summer better than others? Are these showmen consumed by the sense of possibility that pervades the year’s first major?

For whatever reason, a Cinderella tale is likely to unfold again at Melbourne Park, where first-round play begins Monday.Yes, the champion is almost certain to be defending champion Novak Djokovic, top-ranked Rafael Nadal, three-time Aussie champion Roger Federer or fourth-ranked Scotsman Andy Murray.

Fans’ hearts, however, might belong to a new breakout star. Here are three possibilities:

Sam Querrey: The free-swinging San Franciscan, ranked 39th, uncorks a huge serve that keeps him in any match. Steadily improving at 21, he can crack up an interview room, too; his sense of humor will help him keep things in perspective on the court.

Kei Nishikori: The Japanese 19-year-old, ranked 59th, stands into baseline rallies like a seasoned pro. He fought his way into the round of 16 at last year’s U.S. Open, the other major played on hardcourts.

Juan Martin Del Potro: The 6-foot-6 Argentine won four straight tournaments last summer behind a booming serve. He’s ranked No. 9 and the tennis world expects much from the 20-year-old this season; a run to the final is within his grasp.

UPDATE Jan. 22: Kei Nishikori and Sam Querrey were knocked out in the first round, both in straight-set losses

Only Juan Martin Del Potro soldiered on to the second round.

So back to the drawing board on the Aussie predictions angle. Yikes!

Venus Williams, once a popular pick to win the Australian Open, is a seven-time major champion — twice on New York’s hardcourts at the U.S. Open. Those facts made the “Why not Venus?” buzz at the only other hardcourt Grand Slam seem reasonable.

In an Aussie Open preview on Jan. 15, I took the Williams bait. “At 28, she’s still producing great tennis,” I wrote then.

But Williams looked like an ineffectual soul-searcher during her second-round loss on Thursday; she played like her own worst enemy and made me feel like a fool.

When I prognosticate, I am revealing the results of honest reflection on the ability of a particular pick.

I’d prefer to be sincere and wrong than correct while riding a mindless bandwagon. In this case, I have been all of the above — except correct.

— Max