Fantasy Baseball: Don’t neglect gems you’ve already got (sleepers who are keepers)

Photo credit: Game Face

Jay Bruce (Getty Images)

By Kyle Stack

Special to amNewYork

As February turns into March, most keeper-league fantasy baseball owners are facing deadlines for their lists of retained players. It's not necessarily an easy process, but owners can often overthink their choices.

There are plenty of fringe players to keep your mind racing back and forth between keeping or purging. Here are five under-the-radar sleeper picks who could be much more popular this time next year.

Chris Davis, Texas Rangers (1B/3B)

Meet the majors’ next 40-home run hitter.

Davis swatted 17 homers and 23 doubles in just 295 at-bats last season, and he posted a fantastic 14.1 HR/AB ratio in over 1,000 minor league at-bats. His combined career 29.8 strikeout percentage in the minors and majors is nearly Ryan Howard-like, but his combined .285 batting average has proven he can overcome that weakness.

Throw in third-base eligibility and ample playing time in a homer-friendly park, and you have a fantastic power bat waiting to be kept.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds (OF)

Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks — another much-hyped young outfielder — has received more adoration in many fantasy baseball circles, but Bruce will outproduce him this season.

His 21 homers in 413 at-bats last season were more than Upton has hit in any professional season, and Bruce can push that total to more than 30 in a full year. He is Cincy’s uncontested right fielder, so all that’s left for Bruce to show is that he can be as much an offensive force on the road (.636 on-base plus slugging percentage in ’08) as at home (.892).

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (SP)

I don’t typically advocate using keeper selections on pitchers (injuries have greater effects on their performance, making their statistics more unpredictable), but Greinke is an exception.

Most casual MLB fans haven’t heard of him for one glaring reason: he’s a Royal. Nevertheless, Greinke is poised to become an elite starter. He’s a growing strikeout monster (9.1 K/9 rate post-All Star last season) who peeled 2.33 runs off his ERA and 0.28 off his WHIP from 2005-08. He’s on the verge of combining 200 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP this year.

Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B/SS)

Age: 27 (Turns 28 on Sept. 22)

Ramirez is at the age when most players reach their power ceiling, so he lacks the statistical upside of others on this list. The rewarding aspect of owning Ramirez, though, is that he is eligible at the two middle infield positions, both of which lack significant depth. It’s usually more sensible to retain your best players, regardless of positional scarcity, but Ramirez is a 20 homer/15 steal player who will hit for a respectable average.

He batted .290 last year, and his .294 bases on balls in play average suggests a tad more luck could lead to a .300-plus mark.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox (OF)

Outfielders are sometimes viewed as a dime a dozen, especially if they aren’t locks for 25-plus homers. Ellsbury won’t go deep 20 times, but the center fielder will give owners loads of his best fantasy-related asset: steals.

What separates Ellsbury, a good bet for 50-plus stolen bases, from other speedsters like Juan Pierre or Willy Taveras is that he isn’t one-dimensional. Ellsbury hit with enough pop last year (22 doubles, .729 OPS) to make him somewhat of a poor man’s Jose Reyes.

And as Boston’s leadoff hitter, Ellsbury should easily surpass 100 runs scored with Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and crew hitting behind him.Five more fantasy prospects to appreciate:

• David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays. Strong-armed phenom seems primed for No. 5 starter role.

• Jose Lopez, 2B, Seattle Mariners. 20 homers/80 RBIs are plausible at a depleted position.

• Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks. Quickly approaching second tier at his position.

• Lastings Milledge, OF, Washington Nationals. Has 25 homer/35 steal potential in improving offense.

• Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles. Rookie’s likely May call-up will be worth the wait.

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