Fantasy Football: Playoff heroes often overrated

Thursday July 30, 2009 3:13 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Any time a player has a big game in the playoffs, you can bet he will emerge as the next hot item — like iPhones or Tickle Me Elmos — in the following season’s fantasy football drafts.
Fantasy owners love trendy players and big names. That’s why playoff heroes, including the following, often see their fantasy stock become inflated — going a round or two earlier than they should.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh
Holmes achieved NFL stardom when he made the game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII. However, he has never had a 1,000-yard season and has averaged just 52 catches during his first three NFL seasons. Yet Holmes’ current ADP (average draft position) is in the fifth round in 12-team leagues.

To compare, Holmes’ teammate Hines Ward, who has averaged 75 receptions since 2006 and has scored five more touchdowns than Holmes over the past three seasons, is being selected in the seventh round.

Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego
The diminutive Sproles amassed 256 yards of offense and three touchdowns in the Chargers’ two playoff games in 2008. But San Diego star LaDainian Tomlinson was limited to five carries in those contests because of a groin injury.

Now LT is back, and Chargers coach Norv Turner recently said Sproles’ primary role would again be as a special teams ace.

Yet Sproles, who accounted for just 672 yards of offense in the 2008 regular season, is being drafted late in the seventh round, ahead of Seattle’s Julius Jones, Baltimore’s LeRon McClain and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham — all of whom are expected to have even greater roles in their teams’ committee backfields.

Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis
It’s been nearly six years since Vinatieri kicked his last Super Bowl-winning field goal for the Patriots, but his reputation has endured the test of time.

The truth is that the 36-year-old Vinatieri, now with Indianapolis, is far from an elite kicker these days. Last season, he was 28th in the league in field goals and 22nd in scoring among kickers.

Vinatieri should not be selected in the 13th round (his current ADP); he probably should not be drafted at all.