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  • Fantasy football: Spotting the next great tight end

    Life is all about options.

    For instance, I wouldn’t normally buy chicken nuggets out of an office vending machine. But when the other choices are bland energy bars and economy-size packs of Twizzlers, I’ll roll the dice on some poultry jerky every time.

    Believe it or not, similar thinking applies to NFL tight ends.

    Ask yourself this: What do the top fantasy football tight ends – Dallas’ Jason Witten, San Diego’s Antonio Gates and Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez -- all have in common?

    Their offenses have no more than one top-flight wide receiver, meaning their quarterbacks have little choice but to use their tight ends as No. 1 or No. 2 options in the passing game. 

    When evaluating this year’s class of tight ends — especially when trying to identify some breakout candidates — it’s important to first look at the wide receivers on their teams.

    Here are a few tight ends who are in ideal situations to thrive this season:

    Greg Olsen, Chicago
    If the regular season began today, the Bears’ starting wideouts would be Devin Hester, a former defensive back still learning to play receiver, and Earl Bennett, who has never caught a pass in the NFL. New Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who leaned on his tight ends in Denver, should quickly learn that Olsen is his most reliable option.

    John Carlson, Seattle
    The Seahawks reeled in a big fish in free agency with wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is expected to be quarterback Matthew Hasselbeck’s new go-to guy. However, No. 2 wideout Deion Branch has never had a 1,000-yard season and can’t seem to stay healthy, likely paving the way for a big year from Carlson, who was the seventh highest scoring fantasy tight end as a rookie in 2008.

    Dustin Keller, N.Y. Jets
    Wide receiver Laveranues Coles signed with Cincinnati, leaving Jerricho Cotchery as the Jets’ top receiver. The candidates to start opposite Cotchery are an unimpressive group of inexperienced players – Chansi Stuckey, Brad Smith and David Clowney. Reports out of Jets spring practices indicated that Keller was clearly Gang Green’s best receiver.

    - - - -

    Some tight ends facing stiff competition for targets:

    Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
    The Steelers’ Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes account for one of the league’s better wide receiver duos.

    Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesot
    Bernard Berrian is entrenched as the No. 1 wideout, and Vikings coach Brad Childress has fallen in love with rookie Percy Harvin.

    Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans
    The Saints have too many strong receiving options – including Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush – for Shockey to post elite stats.
     

  • Fantasy Football: Playoff heroes often overrated

    Santonio Holmes

    Any time a player has a big game in the playoffs, you can bet he will emerge as the next hot item — like iPhones or Tickle Me Elmos — in the following season’s fantasy football drafts.
    Fantasy owners love trendy players and big names. That’s why playoff heroes, including the following, often see their fantasy stock become inflated — going a round or two earlier than they should.

    Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh

    Holmes achieved NFL stardom when he made the game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII. However, he has never had a 1,000-yard season and has averaged just 52 catches during his first three NFL seasons. Yet Holmes’ current ADP (average draft position) is in the fifth round in 12-team leagues.

    To compare, Holmes’ teammate Hines Ward, who has averaged 75 receptions since 2006 and has scored five more touchdowns than Holmes over the past three seasons, is being selected in the seventh round.

    Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego
    The diminutive Sproles amassed 256 yards of offense and three touchdowns in the Chargers’ two playoff games in 2008. But San Diego star LaDainian Tomlinson was limited to five carries in those contests because of a groin injury.

    Now LT is back, and Chargers coach Norv Turner recently said Sproles’ primary role would again be as a special teams ace.

    Yet Sproles, who accounted for just 672 yards of offense in the 2008 regular season, is being drafted late in the seventh round, ahead of Seattle’s Julius Jones, Baltimore’s LeRon McClain and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham — all of whom are expected to have even greater roles in their teams’ committee backfields.

    Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis
    It’s been nearly six years since Vinatieri kicked his last Super Bowl-winning field goal for the Patriots, but his reputation has endured the test of time.

    The truth is that the 36-year-old Vinatieri, now with Indianapolis, is far from an elite kicker these days. Last season, he was 28th in the league in field goals and 22nd in scoring among kickers.

    Vinatieri should not be selected in the 13th round (his current ADP); he probably should not be drafted at all.