Fantasy football: Spotting the next great tight end

Tuesday August 4, 2009 7:24 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Life is all about options.

For instance, I wouldn’t normally buy chicken nuggets out of an office vending machine. But when the other choices are bland energy bars and economy-size packs of Twizzlers, I’ll roll the dice on some poultry jerky every time.

Believe it or not, similar thinking applies to NFL tight ends.

Ask yourself this: What do the top fantasy football tight ends – Dallas’ Jason Witten, San Diego’s Antonio Gates and Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez -- all have in common?

Their offenses have no more than one top-flight wide receiver, meaning their quarterbacks have little choice but to use their tight ends as No. 1 or No. 2 options in the passing game. 

When evaluating this year’s class of tight ends — especially when trying to identify some breakout candidates — it’s important to first look at the wide receivers on their teams.

Here are a few tight ends who are in ideal situations to thrive this season:

Greg Olsen, Chicago
If the regular season began today, the Bears’ starting wideouts would be Devin Hester, a former defensive back still learning to play receiver, and Earl Bennett, who has never caught a pass in the NFL. New Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, who leaned on his tight ends in Denver, should quickly learn that Olsen is his most reliable option.

John Carlson, Seattle
The Seahawks reeled in a big fish in free agency with wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is expected to be quarterback Matthew Hasselbeck’s new go-to guy. However, No. 2 wideout Deion Branch has never had a 1,000-yard season and can’t seem to stay healthy, likely paving the way for a big year from Carlson, who was the seventh highest scoring fantasy tight end as a rookie in 2008.

Dustin Keller, N.Y. Jets
Wide receiver Laveranues Coles signed with Cincinnati, leaving Jerricho Cotchery as the Jets’ top receiver. The candidates to start opposite Cotchery are an unimpressive group of inexperienced players – Chansi Stuckey, Brad Smith and David Clowney. Reports out of Jets spring practices indicated that Keller was clearly Gang Green’s best receiver.

- - - -

Some tight ends facing stiff competition for targets:

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
The Steelers’ Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes account for one of the league’s better wide receiver duos.

Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesot
Bernard Berrian is entrenched as the No. 1 wideout, and Vikings coach Brad Childress has fallen in love with rookie Percy Harvin.

Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans
The Saints have too many strong receiving options – including Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush – for Shockey to post elite stats.
 

Fantasy Football: Playoff heroes often overrated

Thursday July 30, 2009 3:13 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Any time a player has a big game in the playoffs, you can bet he will emerge as the next hot item — like iPhones or Tickle Me Elmos — in the following season’s fantasy football drafts.
Fantasy owners love trendy players and big names. That’s why playoff heroes, including the following, often see their fantasy stock become inflated — going a round or two earlier than they should.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh
Holmes achieved NFL stardom when he made the game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLIII. However, he has never had a 1,000-yard season and has averaged just 52 catches during his first three NFL seasons. Yet Holmes’ current ADP (average draft position) is in the fifth round in 12-team leagues.

To compare, Holmes’ teammate Hines Ward, who has averaged 75 receptions since 2006 and has scored five more touchdowns than Holmes over the past three seasons, is being selected in the seventh round.

Darren Sproles, RB, San Diego
The diminutive Sproles amassed 256 yards of offense and three touchdowns in the Chargers’ two playoff games in 2008. But San Diego star LaDainian Tomlinson was limited to five carries in those contests because of a groin injury.

Now LT is back, and Chargers coach Norv Turner recently said Sproles’ primary role would again be as a special teams ace.

Yet Sproles, who accounted for just 672 yards of offense in the 2008 regular season, is being drafted late in the seventh round, ahead of Seattle’s Julius Jones, Baltimore’s LeRon McClain and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham — all of whom are expected to have even greater roles in their teams’ committee backfields.

Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis
It’s been nearly six years since Vinatieri kicked his last Super Bowl-winning field goal for the Patriots, but his reputation has endured the test of time.

The truth is that the 36-year-old Vinatieri, now with Indianapolis, is far from an elite kicker these days. Last season, he was 28th in the league in field goals and 22nd in scoring among kickers.

Vinatieri should not be selected in the 13th round (his current ADP); he probably should not be drafted at all.

Donald Driver's Monday Night Football performance assures that fantasy football championship is decided by 1 point

Tuesday December 23, 2008 1:47 AM By Max J. Dickstein

Donald Driver’s Monday night performance — six catches for 63 yards in a Green Bay Packers loss to the Chicago Bears — helped beat my Shabbat Ballers by 1 point in a fantasy football championship that really meant something to amNewYork’s sports editor.

Driver handled the driver's seat well for his team, though several other Week 16 events contributed to this tantalizingly close loss for the Shabbat Ballers.

Notably, Kel Varnsen IV also defeated the Ballers in the 12-team league's championship game last year.

Now I will go cry some more.

— Max J. Dickstein

Looking ahead to 2009

Tuesday December 16, 2008 11:30 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Chicago's Matt Forte should be the No. 2 pick in 2009 fantasy drafts. (Photo by Getty)

As the 2008 fantasy football season wraps up, it’s time to look ahead to 2009. Here are my top 20 picks for next season.

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota

He’s had back-to-back seasons of 1,300 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns, and he’ll be just 24 years old entering next season.

2. Matt Forte, RB, Chicago

I suspect Michael Turner will be the fashionable No. 2 pick next season, but Forte gets the nod in my mind because he’s an exceptional receiver (58 catches this season).

3. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta

You’ve got to love his monster-game potential and four multi-touchdown games this season. But it is somewhat concerning that he’s not a factor in the passing game (just six receptions).4. Clinton Portis, RB, Washington

He’s amassed at least 1,500 yards of offense in seven of his eight NFL seasons. And despite that it seems as though he’s been around forever, he’ll turn just 28 in 2009.

5. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco

I anticipate he’ll be underrated heading into next season because he plays for a struggling franchise. But thanks to his receiving skills, he should be a safe bet for 1,500 yards and at least eight TDs, with the potential to top 2,000 yards.

6. Marion Barber, RB, Dallas

“The Barbarian” is on pace for more than 1,450 yards of offense and 10 touchdowns – which would make for his third-straight season with double-digit TDs.

7. Steve Slaton, RB, Houston

A rookie this season, Slaton has rushed for 1,124 yards and eight touchdowns, and added another 305 yards as a receiver.

8. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee

He’s arguably the most explosive running back in the NFL. The only factor that will keep him from going higher is the presence of goal-line vulture LenDale White in Tennessee.

9. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

He’s passed for 300 yards eight times this season and multiple touchdowns in nine games – and that was with Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush missing significant playing time with injuries.

10. Tom Brady, QB, New England

Don’t expect another 50-touchdown season, but with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to, Brady, who missed virtually all of 2007 with a torn ACL in his left knee, should reclaim a spot among the fantasy football elite.

11. Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants

When healthy, the Giants’ wrecking ball of a running back rarely ever disappoints his owners. But over the past two seasons, injuries have been enough of a concern to bump him down, likely into the early part of the second round.

12. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego

I expect I’m in the minority in saying this: L.T. should not be a first-round pick next season. In June, he’ll turn 30, the age when most running backs begin a rapid decline. His recent injuries and drop-off in production are indications that he’s not worth a top-round gamble.

13. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia

Westbrook, too, will turn 30 next year and has never been the healthiest player.

14. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina

He was the top-scoring fantasy running entering Sunday, but it’s hard to believe that teammate Jonathan Stewart won’t see an increased role in the offense next season, eating into Williams’ carries.

15. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

If not for a thumb injury that sidelined him for three games, Romo’s fantasy stats would be right up there with Brees’ and Warner’s.

16. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis

He might slip in drafts because he plays for a bad team and is coming off an injury-plagued season. But because he’ll be just 26 and is a receiving threat, he could be a second-round steal.

17. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona

If not for concerns about his age (he’ll be 38 in 2009) and his durability, Warner would easily be a top-10 pick.

18. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona

Was the highest-scoring and most consistent receiver this season.

19. Randy Moss, WR, New England

Moss should return to greatness when Brady returns under center.

20. Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

Despite a slow start, Manning has thrown for two touchdowns or more in eight games -- just one fewer than Brees and Warner.

Fantasy football: These 8 sure ‘busted’ out

Wednesday December 10, 2008 11:03 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Braylon Edwards was arguably the most disappointing player in fantasy football this season. (Photo by Getty)

By Ryan Chatelain

Capturing fantasy football glory requires talent — and luck. Injuries can send a promising fantasy season south, but you also need to avoid drafting proven players who turn in a stinker of a season.

Now, I call out those players who let down their owners — this year’s fantasy All-Bust Team.

Quarterback

Last season, Cleveland’s Derek Anderson emerged from obscurity and was one of the NFL’s biggest surprises. But Anderson, considered a top-six fantasy QB before the season, fell back to earth. He completed only 50.2 percent of his passes and tossed just nine TDs against eight picks. He was benched for Brady Quinn in Week 10.Running backs

Willis McGahee was a second- or third-round draft pick in most 12-team leagues. He rushed for at least 990 yards in each of his previous four seasons, but he has just 521 yards through Week 14 and didn’t touch the ball at all in two games when he was seemingly healthy.

The writing was on the wall that Edgerrin James, 30, was in decline. But that didn’t stop many fantasy owners from picking the Cardinals star in the third to fifth rounds. James, now third on Arizona’s depth chart, has rushed for 395 yards.

Wide receivers

Braylon Edwards was arguably the No. 3 receiver prospect during the preseason, behind only Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Plagued by dropped passes, Edwards failed to reach 70 yards in nine of 13 games and ranks just 31st among fantasy wideouts in standard scoring leagues.

The Bengals’ Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson has only surpassed 60 yards receiving once this season and ranks 46th among fantasy receivers. (He was sixth in 2007.)

Tight end

What a bizarre 2008 for Kellen Winslow. He was hospitalized for a mysterious illness, suspended for criticizing the Browns organization and then had a potentially season-ending ankle injury. And even when Winslow, a top-three preseason tight end, was on the field, he was dreadful — only once did he eclipse 65 yards receiving.

Kicker

In many leagues, the Colts’ Adam Vinatieri was the second or third kicker drafted — mainly based on his reputation. Yet the Super Bowl hero is the 30th-ranked fantasy kicker.

Defense

The San Diego Chargers were widely considered to have the second-best fantasy defense before the season. But superstar linebacker Shawne Merriman proved how valuable he is when he ended up on the injured reserve and the Chargers, who have the No. 18 fantasy defense to date, struggled to stop just about everyone.

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SIT

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta< (vs. Tampa Bay)

The Bucs have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Le’Ron McClain, RB, Baltimore (vs. Pittsburgh)

There’s never any telling who the Ravens’ leading rusher will be from week to week. Why bother guessing at all against the NFL’s top run defense?

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston (vs. Tennessee)

The Titans have allowed a league-low two TDs to wide receivers.

START

Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago (vs. New Orleans)

The Saints are allowing 231 yards per game through the air.

Dominic Rhodes, RB, Indianapolis (vs. Detroit)

Both the Titans’ and Vikings’ No. 2 backs had nice games vs. the Lions in recent weeks.

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo (vs. Jets)

The erratic Evans should be fine against the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense.

Fantasy football: All-Surprise Team

Tuesday December 2, 2008 2:40 PM By Ryan Chatelain

The Saints' Lance Moore is the eight-best fantasy receiver this season. (Photo by Getty Images)

You can read all the magazines and Web sites, crunch statistics and stress over questions like “L.T. or A.P.?” But every year, there’s a batch of fantasy studs who few had on their draft-day radar.

As the fantasy season winds down, here is my annual All-Surprise Team.

Quarterback

Following early-season growing pains, the Patriots’ Matt Cassel developed into a quality fantasy starter in the injured Tom Brady’s absence. Cassel’s stats — 2,784 passing yards, 13 TDs and 10 interceptions — won’t wow anyone. But thanks in part to his rushing numbers (200 yards, two TDs), Cassel has been the eighth-best fantasy quarterback in standard scoring leagues.Running Backs

During the preseason, rookie Steve Slaton was behind three other running backs on Houston’s depth chart. When injuries forced Slaton into action, he amassed 1,154 yards of offense and nine TDs, making him the eighth-best fantasy back.

Derrick Ward has quietly assembled the 22nd-best fantasy year among running backs. The Giants’ No. 2 back has rushed for 630 yards, with another 371 yards gained as a receiver.

Wide Receivers

New Orleans’ Lance Moore became Drew Brees’ favorite target when No. 1 receiver Marques Colston missed five games earlier this season. But Moore continued to put up big numbers even after Colston’s return, with 59 catches, 739 yards and eight touchdowns. Moore is the ninth-most productive fantasy receiver.

Most fantasy owners assumed that Houston’s Kevin Walter had 800 yards receiving in 2007 only because Andre Johnson missed seven games with a bum knee, so many steered clear of Walter on draft day. Johnson, however, has stayed healthy this year, and Walter ranks No. 16 among fantasy receivers with 705 yards and seven scores.

Tight End

Seahawks rookie John Carlson has been the seventh-best fantasy tight end, with 456 yards and three TDs. His 105-yard game against Dallas on Sunday proved that quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who recently returned to the lineup, likes looking Carlson’s way — a sign that Carlson could be in for an even bigger 2009.

Kicker

No one ever doubted Jason Elam’s ability, but entering 2008, it was thought that Atlanta, which went 4-12 in 2007, wouldn’t score many points. On the contrary, the 8-4 Falcons have provided their three-time Pro Bowler with plenty of scoring opportunities, and he has connected on 24 of 26 field goal attempts. He ranks third among fantasy kickers.

Defense

The Jets don’t spring to mind when naming the NFL’s best defenses. But Gang Green is fourth in the league at stopping the run, has forced 21 turnovers and has scored four defensive TDs. Add it all up, and the Jets are the ninth-best fantasy “D.”

Fantasy football: 4 difference makers in a pinch

Wednesday November 26, 2008 7:09 AM By Ryan Chatelain

If your team is in the middle of the pack of your fantasy football league’s standings at this point, it’s time to shake up your lineup to have any shot at the playoffs.

Luckily, there may be some potential difference makers still available. Not only should these players be owned in every league of 12 teams or more, they should probably be in someone’s starting lineup.

Tyler Thigpen, QB, Kansas City

Thigpen has thrown for eight touchdowns and averaged 247 yards in his last three games, placing him in the top three of all fantasy quarterbacks during that span.

And Thigpen’s remaining schedule is soft. After this week’s tough game against Oakland

(10th against the pass), Thigpen faces Denver, San Diego and Miami; all have pass defenses ranked in the bottom eight of the league. Somehow, Thigpen is owned in just 45 percent of Yahoo leagues.Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Miami

The second-year speedster has scored at least eight fantasy points in four of his last five games and has been the seventh-best fantasy receiver over the past three weeks.

He should continue to put up big numbers now that Dolphins receiver Greg Camarillo is out for the season with a knee injury, freeing Ginn up to make more plays. Also,

Miami’s upcoming schedule includes patsies St. Louis, San Francisco and Kansas City.

Ginn is owned in just 49 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Mark Bradley, WR, Kansas City

The former Bear has been a significant part of the Chiefs’ offense since signing as a free agent last month, thanks in part to Thigpen’s ascension.

Bradley has 50 yards receiving or a touchdown in five straight games and has been the 13th-best fantasy receiver over the last three weeks. He’s owned in 17 percent of

Yahoo leagues and 24 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets

Over the past three weeks, Keller has been the second-best fantasy tight end, amassing at least six catches in each of those three contests.

With Denver, San Francisco and Seattle left on the Jets’ schedule, there’s no reason to believe Keller will slow down, yet he’s owned in only about half of Yahoo and ESPN.com leagues.

- - - - - -

SIT

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia (vs. Arizona)

McNabb was yanked at halftime last week. He’ll get the start against the Cardinals, but

who’s to say whether he’ll finish this game?

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay)

Thomas is tempting because he scored three TDs in the past two games, but the Bucs

are tough against the run and Reggie Bush should be back.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City (vs. Oakland)

Few receivers have big games against Raiders All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who held

Carolina’s Steve Smith to one nine-yard catch on Nov. 9.

John Carlson, TE, Seattle (vs. Dallas)

The Cowboys have only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends this season.

START

Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo (vs. San Francisco)

Edwards broke out of his slump against Kansas City on Sunday. He gets another easy matchup this week, facing the 29th-ranked pass defense.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami (vs. St. Louis)

Brown is third in the AFC in rushing TDs, and no team has given up more rushing TDs than the Rams.

Antonio Bryant, WR, Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans)

Injuries have forced the Saints to promote backups to the starting lineup. Bucs coach Jon Gruden should find a way to exploit New Orleans’ biggest weakness.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Denver (vs. Jets)

Only one team has allowed more fantasy points to tight ends this season than Gang Green has.

Sit these studs? Only at your peril

Thursday November 20, 2008 1:09 PM By Ryan Chatelain

By Ryan Chatelain

The matchup was unfavorable to say the least: Brandon Jacobs vs. the Ravens, the NFL’s second-stingiest team against the run.

Owners of Jacobs who had another strong running back option likely benched the Giants standout. Those who started him hoped he could grind out at least a touchdown.

Here is Jacobs’ surprising stat line after the first quarter on Sunday: eight rushes, 70 yards and two scores. (With a large lead and an ailing knee, Jacobs only carried the ball once more during Big Blue’s 30-10 rout of Baltimore.)

Sometimes fantasy footballers pay too much attention to matchups. Yes, they are a vital tool for setting your lineup, but there are times when it’s best to look the other way.Here is my advice:

Look ahead to fantasy playoff matchups

Tuesday November 11, 2008 6:38 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons (Photo by Getty Images)

By Ryan Chatelain

No one wants to see their fantasy football team cruise through the regular season only to bow out in the first round of the playoffs.

To avoid going one-and-done in the postseason, it’s important to look ahead to your players’ matchups in weeks 15 and 16, the fantasy playoffs in most leagues.

If any of your players have especially brutal games those weeks, you might want to think of a Plan B -- either trade him for someone with a more promising postseason slate or make sure you have a reliable option on your bench.

Here are five players with particularly unfavorable matchups in the fantasy playoffs:

Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta

The Falcons’ breakout star will meet Tampa Bay (11th in the NFL against the run) in Week 15 and Minnesota (third) in Week 16. That’s particularly bad news for Turner owners considering he has been superb against poor defenses but unimpressive against quality defenses. The Buccaneers, for example, held Turner to 42 yards rushing earlier this season.Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

Let’s face it, Big Ben, who ranks 20th in the NFL in passing yards, has been a disappointment this season. So it’s tough to imagine him putting up great games in your fantasy playoffs against Baltimore and Tennessee Both rank in the top 12 in stopping the pass.

Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas

Owens hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards receiving since Oct. 5, and he hasn’t broken the 100-yard mark all season. In weeks 15 and 16, the Cowboys face the Giants (second against the pass) and Baltimore (ninth). And who’s to say whether the temperamental All-Pro hasn’t lost all interest by that point?

Marion Barber, RB, Dallas

While it will be tough to bench Barber, the heart and soul of the Cowboys offense, fantasy owners with other viable options should consider it. Not only are the Giants and Ravens tough against the pass (don’t forget, Barber has the third most catches on the Cowboys), those defenses also rank in the top seven in stopping the run.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants

Big Blue takes on the Cowboys (11th against the pass) and Carolina (fourth) in the fantasy playoffs. Manning hasn’t passed for more than 200 yards in five straight games. That’s a sign that the Giants prefer to establish the run first – a philosophy they’d be wise to continue following in weeks 15 and 16.

WEEK 11: START/SIT

Start

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta (vs. Denver). The rookie has tossed two touchdowns in each of his last three games, and the Broncos are in the NFL’s bottom five against the pass.

Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta (vs. Denver). The Falcons’ No. 2 running back has averaged 83 yards of offense over his past three contests and scored TDs each of the past two weeks.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City (vs. New Orleans). Bowe has caught five passes in seven of nine games, and the Saints’ pass defense is ranked 27th.

Sit

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville (vs. Tennessee). The Titans have allowed just five passing scores this season, second fewest in the NFL.

Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay (vs. Chicago). If the Bears could hold Tennessee’s Chris Johnson and LenDale White to a combined 22 yards, they can shut down Grant, too.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (vs. Ravens). Plax hasn’t surpassed 35 yards in four straight games, and the Ravens are ranked ninth against the pass.

Shop them while it's hot

Tuesday October 21, 2008 3:45 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Braylon Edwards has struggled this season and has a tough schedule ahead. (Getty Images)

By Ryan Chatelain

It can be difficult to let go, especially when one of your fantasy players is performing well or has an All-Pro reputation.

But as I wrote last week, predicting any sudden rises or falls in a player’s value can be an important ingredient on your way to building a championship team.

The following players will have a difficult road throughout the remainder of the fantasy regular season. It’s time to at least consider cashing in on their recent success or big-name status by trading for a player with a rosier future.

Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland

Edwards, who has treated footballs like hot potatoes this season, has failed to reach 60 yards receiving in five of his six games. Although he has nice matchups in two of his next three games (against Jacksonville on Sunday and against Denver in Week 10), he also faces four top-10 pass defenses before the end of the fantasy regular season (Week 14 in most leagues).

Edwards’ 154-yard performance on “Monday Night Football” in Week 6 might have been just the ticket to raise his trade value. But act fast before he turns in another stinker.Ryan Grant, RB, Packers

There’s no better time to trade Grant than before his next game. (The Packers have a bye this week, so you have a nice-sized window to move him.)

Sure, Grant has rushed for at least 80 yards in his last three games and finally had a 100-yard effort this past Sunday against Indianapolis. But considering his last three opponents were the Falcons, Seahawks and Colts – all have poor run defenses – and that Grant is averaging just 3 yards per carry in his last two games, it’s evident the Giants castoff is still struggling.

Once Grant returns from his bye, he will be in for quite a challenge as he squares off against three straight top-10 run defenses (Tennessee, Minnesota and Chicago).

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston

Schaub is averaging 318 yards and two touchdowns over his past three games. But those games have come against Jacksonville, Miami and Detroit, who all ranked in the league’s bottom 10 in defending the pass.

In fact, in his only two games against quality defenses — the Steelers and Titans — Schaub struggled mightily, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions.

Now five of Schaub’s next seven games come against top-10 pass defenses – and don’t overlook the fact that there was a quarterback controversy brewing in Houston when Schaub wasn’t playing well earlier this season.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati

There's plenty of reason to believe Houshmandzadeh's season will get worse.

First of all, quarterback Carson Palmer is reportedly considering season-ending Tommy John surgery, meaning Harvard alum Ryan Fitzpatrick would remain the starter in Cincy.

But more important, when looking at pass defenses, no team faces a tougher schedule through Week 14 than the Bengals. In fact, after Cincinnati returns from its Week 10 bye, it will go up against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis – all top-10 pass defenses.

All of the above can be applied to Chad Ocho Cinco as well.

BYE WEEK FILL-INS

Some options to replace your prized players who may have Week 8 off:

Matt Cassel, QB, New England (vs. St. Louis). Tom Brady’s replacement is coming off a three-TD outing and is facing the Rams, ranked 25th against the pass.

Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle (vs. San Francisco). Morris was on his way to a big game Sunday in Tampa (56 yards on six carries) before the trailing Seahawks scrapped the run.

Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia (vs. Atlanta). Returning from a sports hernia, Curtis, an 1,100-yard receiver in 2007, is expected to be reinserted into the Eagles’ starting lineup Sunday.

Billy Miller, TE, New Orleans (vs. San Diego). Jeremy Shockey is hinting that he won’t play in London, and Miller is averaging 57 yards over his last three games.

Matt Bryant, K, Tampa Bay (vs. Dallas). He’s averaging multiple field goals in his last five games.

San Francisco defense (vs. Seattle). Surprisingly, the 49ers are a top-10 fantasy unit and are playing a Seahawks offense that is ranked 28th in the NFL.

Fantasy Football: Buying low

Tuesday October 14, 2008 12:47 PM By Ryan Chatelain

By Ryan Chatelain

ryan.chatelain@am-ny.com

Unless you’re one of the fortunate few to have a bench loaded with talent, trading in fantasy football is often counterproductive. You might improve your team’s running back situation, but does it make much sense if you’re sacrificing a star quarterback?

That’s why, in an attempt to gain more value than their giving up, fantasy football diehards throw around stock market terms such as “buy low” and “sell high.” They’re trying to predict which players will soon experience a hot streak or a slump.

As the trading season heats up, here are five players who are buy-lows. (Next week: sell-highs.)

Torry Holt, WR, Rams

Usually a sure bet for 90 catches and 1,100 yards, Holt is on pace for just 64 catches and 672 yards this season. But new coach Jim Haslett, who led St. Louis to an upset win over the Redskins on Sunday, might have breathed new life into the Rams. And more important for Holt (pictured), seven of St. Louis’ next eight games are against teams with pass defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets

When looking at opposing run defenses, no team has an easier schedule through Week 14 – the end of the fantasy regular season in most leagues -- than the Jets. Jones, who scored three touchdowns last week against the Bengals, should shine against foes such as Kansas City, St. Louis, Denver and San Francisco.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina

Carolina faces just one top-10 pass defense through Week 14. Forget about his dismal performance Sunday against Carolina; Delhomme should have big games against aerial lightweights New Orleans, Oakland, Detroit and Atlanta.

Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans

Over the first few weeks of the season, the Saints remained cautious with McAllister, coming off two offseason knee surgeries. But New Orleans is utilizing him more now as the Saints face a string of mediocre run defenses.

Zach Miller, TE, Oakland

Miller is the Raiders’ leading receiver. OK, that might not be much to brag about, but his remaining schedule includes games against the Jets, Falcons, Dolphins, Broncos and Chargers, who have all struggled mightily against the pass.

- - - -

BYE WEEK FILL-INS

Some options to replace your prized players who may have Week 7 off:

Brad Johnson, QB, Dallas (vs. St. Louis). It’s not often you can grab a starting QB on a very good offensive team that is playing an abysmal defense.

Sammy Morris, RB, New England (vs. Denver). He’s the Patriots’ leading rusher, is a goal-line threat and is facing a defense that has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than any team in the NFL.

Kevin Walter, WR, Houston (vs. Detroit). Walter has been a top-13 fantasy receiver over the past three weeks, and the Lions are ranked 30th against the pass.

Robert Royal, TE, Buffalo (vs. Chargers). San Diego has given up five TDs to tight ends, two more than any other team in the league.

Matt Bryant, K, Tampa Bay (vs. Seattle). Bryant has kicked at least two field goals in five of six games.

Jets defense (vs. Oakland). The Jets have a mediocre real-life defense, but thanks to 10 turnovers and a pair of touchdowns, they have a top-10 fantasy defense.

Photo by Getty Images

Fantasy Football: Don't neglect your loved ones

Tuesday October 7, 2008 11:34 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Allison Lodish is a fantasy sports widow.

In August, Lodish, 35, of Kentfield, Calif., and two others launched Women Against Fantasy Sports (womenagainstfantasysports.com) as a humorous jab at fantasy addicts who neglect their significant others.

The site, which includes a forum for fantasy victims to vent, has quickly found a following and is even selling apparel, including panties that read “CLOSED For the Fantasy Season.”

I asked Lodish about the site and for tips on how we can avoid taking our love for fantasy sports too far.

amNY: Why are you against fantasy sports?

Lodish: I started the site because my husband took it from being a hobby to being almost a full-time job. He really started spending so much time that it was driving me crazy. So I started the site as sort of a playful retaliation and just a place for people to poke some fun and share some stories.

amNY: The site seems like it has caught on pretty quickly. Are you surprised by the response?

Lodish: I had an idea that we would have some sort of effect. I had no idea it would be so much so quickly, and it’s great. I think it just shows that we struck a nerve.

amNY: What are the worst stories you’ve heard about a fantasy sports addict neglecting a significant other?

Lodish: My favorite is the one about the husband. He and his wife had just got married. They were on their honeymoon night — they literally had just got married. They were up in the honeymoon suite. He said he was going to check on the flight for the next day, and he actually went down into the lobby to make a trade.

And then there’s a woman who had her baby in the beginning of August, and her husband had his fantasy draft that night and left her.

amNY: Give me some pointers on how we can find some middle ground and still play fantasy sports but not neglect our significant others.

Lodish: I would just try to say keep it to less than double digits during the week as far as hours spent. Try to just keep one computer on at a time. It’s really just creating a balance. And you know, bribery could work with some people. Not me, but with others for sure.

amNY: And what about talking to our friends on the phone about our teams?

Lodish: Do you need to? Just be sneaky. What we don’t know won’t hurt us. That’s my motto.

- - -

BYE WEEK FILL-INS

Some options to replace any of your prized players who have Week 6 off:

Gus Frerotte, QB, Vikings (vs. Lions). The 15-year veteran faces the 29th-ranked pass defense.

Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders (vs. New Orleans). A lot of owners gave up on Fargas, a 1,000-yard rusher last season, after he injured his groin. (He’s only owned in 29% of Yahoo leagues.) He’s expected to return this week.

Matt Jones, WR, Jaguars (vs. Denver). He’s caught at least five passes in four of five games.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (vs. Cincinnati). He has TD receptions in each of the last two games, a sign that Brett Favre trusts the rookie near the goal line.

Jason Elam, K, Falcons (vs. Chicago). He’s made multiple field goals in four of five games this season and gets the Bears indoors.

Panthers defense (vs. Tampa Bay). It’s hard to believe that the Carolina D, a top-eight fantasy defense, is still available in 68 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

Fantasy Football: Need a new defense?

Tuesday September 30, 2008 3:16 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Two weeks ago, you might have been licking your chops over the prospect of the dependable, punishing Patriots defense facing the inept Dolphins offense.

New England was sure to rack up solid, if not ridiculous, fantasy numbers against a team that averaged just 12 points in its first two games. No way could you lose, right?

Then Miami running back Ronnie Brown gutted the Patriots like a dead fish and had a hand in five touchdowns — four rushing and one passing.

The Patriots, who rank 24th among fantasy defenses in standard scoring leagues, aren’t alone. Jacksonville and Dallas are also among the highly regarded units on draft day that have not lived up to expectations.

It may be time to move in another direction, or at least add a second defense and play the best matchups week to week.

Don’t think defenses make a huge difference in fantasy football? In Week 3 against Pittsburgh, the Eagles allowed just six points, forced three turnovers, amassed eight sacks and scored a safety — a total of 24 fantasy points.

Here are some defenses likely still available in your league that are worth taking a chance on.

Jets

After allowing 83 points in their last two games, the Jets are surprisingly the eighth-best fantasy defense to date. Gang Green has made up for its shortcomings by forcing nine turnovers and scoring two touchdowns.

Six of the Jets’ next nine contests are against offenses ranked 20th or worse, including Cincinnati, Oakland and Kansas City in consecutive games after this week’s bye.

Redskins

While their fantasy numbers don’t look stellar, the Redskins have held some high-octane offenses — the Giants, Saints and Cowboys — in check thus far.

Things are about to get easier for Washington. After a tough game this Sunday against the Eagles, the Redskins will enter a stretch in which they’ll play four of the NFL’s seven worst offenses: St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh.

Colts

The Colts were the league’s stingiest in points allowed last season. Seven of their next nine games come against offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league, including the Ravens, Browns and Bengals. However, don’t expect monster fantasy numbers from the Indianapolis defense until safety Bob Sanders returns from ankle and knee injuries. He’s expected back in late October.

- - - - -

BYE WEEK FILL-INS

Some options to replace any of your prized players who have Week 5 off:

Warrick Dunn, RB, Buccaneers (vs. Denver). The 33-year-old wonder has been a top-30 fantasy running back thus far.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints (vs. Minnesota). With Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey out with injuries, Moore is developing into Drew Brees’ favorite target in the interim.

Anthony Fasano, TE, Dolphins (vs. San Diego). The Chargers have given up a TD to a tight end in each of their first four games.

Joe Nedney, K, 49ers (vs. Patriots). Nedney has already booted 10 field goals, two from beyond 40 yards.

Carolina defense (vs. Kansas City). The Chiefs have scored 14 or fewer points in three of their four games.

Kyle Orton, QB, Bears (vs. Detroit). Orton has thrown five scores in his past two games.

Fantasy football: Star players letting you down?

Tuesday September 16, 2008 6:22 PM By Ryan Chatelain

So that can’t-miss draft pick can’t do anything right, and you’re already contemplating a move to help salvage your season.

It’s true that some of the NFL’s biggest names have accounted for fantasy football’s biggest disappointments through the first two weeks. But that doesn’t necessarily mean success isn’t just around the corner for them.

Here’s a glimpse at some of those stars and their prospects for snapping out of early-season funks.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego

L.T.’s ailing toe can be blamed for his slow start (he ranks 34th among running backs in standard-scoring leagues), but the injury isn’t considered serious. People also tend to forget that Tomlinson stumbled out of the gates in 2007, only to finish yet another season as the top fantasy running back.

Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

Manning missed the entire preseason with a knee injury and then returned to find his security blanket, center Jeff Saturday, out with his own knee problems — a torn MCL. Since 2000, Saturday had started all but two games for the Colts entering this season. Saturday opted out of surgery on his knee and could return this week, meaning Manning will soon get his groove back.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati

Yes, Palmer has encountered tough matchups this month against Baltimore and Tennessee. But 228 yards passing, three interceptions and no touchdowns through two games? Something is clearly wrong in the Queen City, and it starts with the Bengals’ inept running game. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for Palmer. His next five opponents include the Giants, Cowboys and Steelers.

Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City

Johnson only managed 22 yards rushing against a Raiders defense that yielded 146 yards per game on the ground in 2007. L.J. appears to be a victim of the Chiefs’ lack of a threat at quarterback and poor blocking from the offensive line.

Randy Moss, WR, New England

While the “Freak” will undoubtedly see his stats take a hit without Tom Brady around, Moss still racked up 116 yards with Matt Cassel at quarterback for most of the season opener. The key to Moss’ success will be for Cassel to get No. 3 receiver Jabar Gaffney more involved in the offense so that defenses worry a little less about Moss.

Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis

The Rams have the NFL’s worst offense and defense thus far. As a result, St. Louis will find itself down big on the scoreboard often, limiting Jackson’s second-half carries. Jackson, thanks in part to his pass-catching skills, should probably stick around in your starting lineup, but you should lower your expectations.

WEEK 3: PLAYERS TO START AND SIT

Start

Brett Favre, QB, Jets (vs. San Diego). Favre’s completing nearly 70 percent of his throws, and the Chargers’ pass defense is ranked 31st in the NFL.

LenDale White, RB, Titans (vs. Houston). White is clearly the goal-line back in Tennessee, and Houston gave up three rushing scores in Week 1.

David Patten, WR, New Orleans (vs. Denver). The Saints and Broncos are in the bottom five in pass defense, setting the stage for a shootout at Mile High.

Sit

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville (vs. Indianapolis). Garrard will continue to struggle if the Jags can’t establish their running game.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina (vs. Minnesota). The rookie is off to a good start, but just ask the Colts’ Joseph Addai (15 carries for 20 yards in Week 2) about the Vikes’ run defense.

Roy Williams, WR, Detroit (vs. San Francisco). Williams says he feels like just “a role player.” With just six catches through two games, he’s probably right.

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Send your fantasy comments or questions to me at ryan.chatelain@am-ny.com.

Fantasy football: Star players letting you down?

Tuesday September 16, 2008 2:22 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Carson Palmer has some tough matchups ahead. (Photo by Getty)

So that can’t-miss draft pick can’t do anything right, and you’re already contemplating a move to help salvage your season.

It’s true that some of the NFL’s biggest names have accounted for fantasy football’s biggest disappointments through the first two weeks. But that doesn’t necessarily mean success isn’t just around the corner for them.

Here’s a glimpse at some of those stars and their prospects for snapping out of early-season funks.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego

L.T.’s ailing toe can be blamed for his slow start (he ranks 34th among running backs in standard-scoring leagues), but the injury isn’t considered serious. People also tend to forget that Tomlinson stumbled out of the gates in 2007, only to finish yet another season as the top fantasy running back.

Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

Manning missed the entire preseason with a knee injury and then returned to find his security blanket, center Jeff Saturday, out with his own knee problems — a torn MCL. Since 2000, Saturday had started all but two games for the Colts entering this season. Saturday opted out of surgery on his knee and could return this week, meaning Manning will soon get his groove back.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati

Yes, Palmer has encountered tough matchups this month against Baltimore and Tennessee. But 228 yards passing, three interceptions and no touchdowns through two games? Something is clearly wrong in the Queen City, and it starts with the Bengals’ inept running game. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for Palmer. His next five opponents include the Giants, Cowboys and Steelers.

Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City

Johnson only managed 22 yards rushing against a Raiders defense that yielded 146 yards per game on the ground in 2007. L.J. appears to be a victim of the Chiefs’ lack of a threat at quarterback and poor blocking from the offensive line.

Randy Moss, WR, New England

While the “Freak” will undoubtedly see his stats take a hit without Tom Brady around, Moss still racked up 116 yards with Matt Cassel at quarterback for most of the season opener. The key to Moss’ success will be for Cassel to get No. 3 receiver Jabar Gaffney more involved in the offense so that defenses worry a little less about Moss.

Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis

The Rams have the NFL’s worst offense and defense thus far. As a result, St. Louis will find itself down big on the scoreboard often, limiting Jackson’s second-half carries. Jackson, thanks in part to his pass-catching skills, should probably stick around in your starting lineup, but you should lower your expectations.

- - - - -

WEEK 3: PLAYERS TO START AND SIT

Start

Brett Favre, QB, Jets (vs. San Diego). Favre’s completing nearly 70 percent of his throws, and the Chargers’ pass defense is ranked 31st in the NFL.

LenDale White, RB, Titans (vs. Houston). White is clearly the goal-line back in Tennessee, and Houston gave up three rushing scores in Week 1.

David Patten, WR, New Orleans (vs. Denver). The Saints and Broncos are in the bottom five in pass defense, setting the stage for a shootout at Mile High.

Sit

David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville (vs. Indianapolis). Garrard will continue to struggle if the Jags can’t establish their running game.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina (vs. Minnesota). The rookie is off to a good start, but just ask the Colts’ Joseph Addai (15 carries for 20 yards in Week 2) about the Vikes’ run defense.

Roy Williams, WR, Detroit (vs. San Francisco). Williams says he feels like just “a role player.” With just six catches through two games, he’s probably right.

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Send your fantasy comments or questions to me at ryan.chatelain@am-ny.com.

Fantasy Football: Week 1 revelations

Wednesday September 10, 2008 1:15 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Willie Parker scored more touchdowns in Week 1 than he did all of last season.

Week 1 is always the trickiest week to set your fantasy lineups. After all, it’s in the season openers when we learn the true roles of many players, news that can send an athlete’s stock soaring or plummeting.

Here are several revelations from Week 1:

Jay Cutler is poised to join the elite quarterbacks. The third-year Bronco made a statement Monday night when he passed for 299 yards and two touchdowns against a strong Raiders secondary – and that was with his favorite target, Brandon Marshall, serving a suspension.

Willie Parker is far from done. Many fantasy footballers backed off Parker because the Steelers spent their first-round draft choice on running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall’s preseason case of fumble-itis, however, opened the door Sunday for Parker to run for 138 yards and three touchdowns, one more score than he had in all of 2007.

Laurence Maroney shouldn’t be in your starting lineup. The Patriots running back had just as many carries (10) as teammate Sammy Morris. Maroney doesn’t catch many passes (just four last season), and when Morris was healthy in 2007, Maroney didn’t score touchdowns. Those shortcomings qualify him as a fantasy liability.

There’s a time-share in Denver. Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has fooled us again when it comes to his running game. While everyone assumed Selvin Young was Denver’s featured back, it was Andre Hall who led the team in carries, with 10. Young had seven attempts.

Hold off on the Reggie “Bust” talk. Reggie Bush may not have panned out as a great traditional running back, but the Saints star is still dynamic enough to gain yards in a variety of ways. That was evident by his performance Sunday against Tampa Bay, when he had 51 yards rushing, 112 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Ahmad Bradshaw is not the Giants’ No. 2 running back. Derrick Ward had 11 offensive touches while Bradshaw had none, despite that Bradshaw was drafted higher in virtually all leagues. Giants coach Tom Coughlin says he botched the rotation and Bradshaw should see more playing time in the future. But Bradshaw’s lack of action speaks louder than Coughlin’s words.

NFL FANTASY WEEK 2: PLAYERS TO START AND SIT

Start

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (vs. St. Louis). Manning faces a Rams pass defense that gave up 414 yards to the Eagles last week.

Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland). Ward is coming off a two-TD game and is playing against a lousy Browns secondary.

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee (vs. Cincinnati). Fresh off his 127-yard coming-out party against the Jags, the rookie goes up against the Bengals, who gave up 229 yards on the ground in Week 1.

Sit

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle (vs. San Francisco). The Seahawks are without receivers Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and Bobby Engram and running back Maurice Morris.

Greg Lewis, WR, Philadelphia (vs. Dallas). Don’t be fooled by his 100-yard game against the Rams.

Chris Perry, RB, Cincinnati (vs. Tennessee). The new Bengals starting running back faces a Titans defense that gave up just 1.9 yards per carry to Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor last week.

Fantasy Football: Beware of the next Frisman Jackson

Tuesday September 2, 2008 8:30 PM By Ryan Chatelain

If your fantasy football team stumbles out of the gates this weekend, remember this name: Frisman Jackson.

In 2005, Jackson, a Cleveland Browns wide receiver, had eight receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown in the season opener – just the type of performance that causes a knee-jerk reaction from fantasy owners unsure about their receiving corps.

Jackson proved to be a waste of a fantasy roster spot. He finished the season with 24 catches for 287 yards and never smelled the end zone again.

Far too often, fantasy footballers panic after having a disappointing Week 1. They release a good player who struggled in Week 1 for someone who will more than likely prove to be, well, a Frisman Jackson.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying never to gamble on a relatively unknown player who pops up with a monster game. After all, for every dozen Frisman Jacksons, there's a Maurice Jones-Drew or Ryan Grant – a fantasy stud who emerges from nowhere and turns a good fantasy team into a great one.

The key is to be smart about the players you pick up and release. Don't toss aside a proven or promising athlete who had a lousy season opener so that you can add a player who probably won't pan out.

Before tweaking your roster, ask yourself a couple of questions:

1. Does the player I'm considering adding have a real chance to continue his success?

For example, if Carolina wide receiver Dwayne Jarrett surprises with a big game Sunday, recognize that it would not have been possible if not for the suspension of Steve Smith.

2. Is it really time to give up on the player I'm about to release?

In 2006, many fantasy owners released Buffalo wide receiver Lee Evans after he only had four catches for 44 yards through the first two games.

I know. I was one of them.

Evans, the Bills' first-round draft choice a year earlier, ended up with nearly 1,300 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. I ended up with bruises from kicking myself.

To master the waiver wire, you must find that perfect balance. Rolling the dice here and there can be healthy. Roll them indiscriminately, and you're just begging for a Frisman Jackson.

PLAY

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona (vs. San Francisco)

Not only did Warner toss 21 touchdowns in the final eight games of last season, he also passed for 484 yards in his only appearance against the Niners.

Selvin Young, RB, Denver (vs. Oakland)

The Raiders gave up 146 yards per game on the ground in 2007, and the Broncos always run the ball well.

Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay (vs. New Orleans)

Galloway has had at least 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in his last seven games against the Saints.

BENCH

Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis (vs. Philadelphia)

Bulger had a poor 2007 and was less than stellar in the preseason. The Eagles defense has a strong pass rush and added Pro Bowler Asante Samuel to an already good secondary.

LenDale White, RB, Tennessee (vs. Jacksonville)

White only averaged 39 yards rushing in two games against the Jaguars in 2007, and now he's expected to lose about half his carries to rookie speedster Chris Johnson.

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo (vs. Seattle)

I might have regretted cutting him in 2006, but now I find him to be a frustratingly inconsistent player. And the Seahawks defense allowed the fewest touchdown passes in the league last season.

Fantasy Football: Players to avoid

Tuesday August 26, 2008 1:36 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Read the full article by clicking here.

In addition to those who made the cut in the article, I also have tried to steer clear of these players this season:

All Texans running backs. Ahman Green is 31 years old and injured. Chris Brown is always hurt. If neither Green nor Brown is in the lineup, there’s no telling whether Chris Taylor or Steve Slaton would get the start. Save yourself some headaches and just avoid the whole complicated situation.

Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay. He suffered a pretty gruesome leg injury last season. Many wondered if it would end his career. I believe he’ll return at some point in his career, maybe even later this year. But don’t expect him to be his old self in 2008. Besides, the Bucs have enough options at running back (Earnest Graham, Michael Bennett and Warrick Dunn) to keep Cadillac parked so that he can fully recover.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins. He’s not awful as a No. 4 receiver on your team, but he’s usually overrated in fantasy rankings. The former Jet has only surpassed 1,000 yards one of the past four seasons. His reliability index is a miserable .357. (Click here for an explanation of the reliability index.)

Jerry Porter, WR, Jacksonville. He’s been fighting a hamstring injury and has yet to play in a preseason game. That’s a major concern for a receiver trying to learn a new offense and build chemistry with a new quarterback. And oh yeah, Porter has never had a 1,000-yard season.

Donte Stallworth, WR, Cleveland. He was disappointing with Tom Brady as his quarterback, and that’s tough to do. There’s a reason he is playing for his fourth team in four seasons.

All Seahawks receivers. Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are out with injuries, leaving Nate Burleson, who is averaging just 33 receptions over the past three seasons, as the Seahawks’ only experienced receiver to begin the season. But even Burleson is an unknown because his inconsistent play throughout his career makes him a huge question mark after Branch and Engram return. Making matters worse, Matt Hasselbeck seems to have a chronic back injury that may or may not be a factor during the season. Again, let someone else in your league worry about this mess.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Denver. The fact that rookie Eddie Royal appears to have beaten him out of a starting job is an indication that Jackson's best days are behind him.

Fantasy football: Creating a 'reliability index'

Tuesday August 19, 2008 1:38 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Raise your hand if you're the most reliable fantasy football running back. (Photo by Getty Images)

By Ryan Chatelain

In the eyes of many fantasy footballers, Adrian Peterson should be this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick.

They vividly recall when the Minnesota running back had games of 224 and 296 rushing yards last season and almost single-handedly helped his fantasy owners win those weeks.

They seem to forget, however, about Peterson’s miserable Week 14 (3 yards on 14 carries), and how he managed only 63 rushing yards over the final two weeks when the Vikings were battling for a playoff spot.

Last summer, I thought it would be helpful to gauge a player’s dependability from week to week. In other words, would you rather a running back who will score 25 points one week and just five the next, or one who is a safe bet for at least 15 points every week?

So I created a stat that I call the “reliability index.”

Without boring you too much with the math, the reliability index awards a quarterback, for example, a “win” for every game he scores at least 15 points, a “tie” for 10 to 14 points and a “loss” for nine or fewer. Those numbers are then converted into a number similar to a winning percentage in sports standings.Let’s take Giants quarterback Eli Manning, for example. In 2007, he had three “wins,” nine “losses” and four “ties.” His reliability index of .313 meant he was one of the shakiest fantasy QBs.

The standards vary according to the expectations of each position. The “win” threshold for a running back is 12 points and 10 for a wide receiver or tight end — meaning the reliability index should only be used to compare athletes at the same position. If a player missed a game, it is not factored in.

Here are some revelations made possible by the reliability index. (Only players who scored 75 or more points in standard-scoring leagues and who are currently on an NFL roster were considered.)

• New England quarterback Tom Brady (.938), Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook (.906), Houston wide receiver Andre Johnson (.833) and Dallas tight end Jason Witten (.625) were the most dependable players at their positions last season.

• San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers (.375), Cincinnati running back Rudi Johnson (.364), Washington receiver Santana Moss (.357) and Giant-turned-Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey (.250) had painfully low scores.

• Peterson’s reliability index of .607 was just 12th among running backs.

• Giants running back Brandon Jacobs was the sixth most dependable running back (.727). His only “loss” was the season opener, when he left early with a knee injury.

• New Orleans’ Reggie Bush (.542) was more trustworthy than Jacksonville’s Maurice-Jones Drew (.469).

• Jets wideout Jerricho Cotchery (.533) was more reliable than Giants star Plaxico Burress (.500).

The reliability index is not a magic formula that should be used alone on draft day. But it can help separate two otherwise seemingly comparable players and could help you avoid those frustrating weeks when your star performer scores a goose egg.

* * *

Here is a breakdown of players' reliability for last season. Again, only players who scored at least 75 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues and are currently on an NFL roster appear.

Fantasy Football: Updated rankings by position

Friday August 15, 2008 7:24 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Trust in L.T. again this year if you have the top pick. (Photo by Getty Images)

QUARTERBACKS

1. Tom Brady (NE)

2. Tony Romo (Dal)

3. Peyton Manning (Ind)

4. Drew Brees (NO)

5. Carson Palmer (Cin)

6. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit)

7. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea)

8. Derek Anderson (Cle)

9. David Garrard (Jax)

10. Jay Cutler (Den)

11. Brett Favre (NYJ)

12. Donovan McNabb (Phi)

13. Matt Schaub (Hou)

14. Marc Bulger (SL)

15. Eli Manning (NYG)

16. Philip Rivers (SD)

17. Jason Campbell (Was)

18. Jon Kitna (Det)

19. Jake Delhomme (Car)

20. Aaron Rodgers (GB)

21. Vince Young (Ten)

22. Matt Leinart (Ariz)

23. Jamarcus Russell (Oak)

24. Tavaris Jackson (Min)

25. Kurt Warner (Ariz)

26. Trent Edwards (Buf)

27. Jeff Garcia (TB)

28. Chad Pennington (Mia)

29. Rex Grossman (Chi)

30. Chris Redman (Atl)RUNNING BACKS

1. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)

2. Brian Westbrook (Phi)

3. Adrian Peterson (Min)

4. Joseph Addai (Ind)

5. Steven Jackson (SL)

6. Clinton Portis (Was)

7. Frank Gore (SF)

8. Marion Barber (Dal)

9. Marshawn Lynch (Buf)

10. Ryan Grant (GB)

11. Larry Johnson (KC)

12. Jamal Lewis (Clev)

13. Willis McGahee (Balt)

14. Brandon Jacobs (NYG)

15. Earnest Graham (TB)

16. Ronnie Brown (Mia)

17. Thomas Jones (NYJ)

18. Reggie Bush (NO)

19. Laurence Maroney (NE)

20. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)

21. Michael Turner (Atl)

22. Darren McFadden (Oak)

23. LenDale White (Ten)

24. Selvin Young (Den)

25. Matt Forte (Chi)

26. Willie Parker (Pit)

27. Edgerrin James (Ariz)

28. Rudi Johnson (Cin)

29. DeAngelo Williams (Car)

30. Julius Jones (Sea)

31. Chris Johnson (Ten)

32. Rashard Mendenhall (Pit)

33. Fred Taylor (Jax)

34. Jerious Norwood (Atl)

35. Chester Taylor (Min)

36. Jonathan Stewart (Car)

37. Ahman Green (Hou)

38. Maurice Morris (Sea)

39. Kevin Smith (Det)

40. Felix Jones (Dal)

41. Ricky Williams (Mia)

42. Kenny Watson (Cin)

43. Justin Fargas (Oak)

44. Deuce McAllister (NO)

45. Tatum Bell (Det)

46. Ray Rice (Balt)

47. Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)

48. Chris Brown (Hou)

49. Andre Hall (Den)

50. Adrian Peterson (Chi)

51. Leon Washington (NYJ)

52. Pierre Thomas (NO)

53. Lamont Jordan (NE)

54. Ladell Betts (Was)

55. Dominic Rhodes (Ind)

56. Steve Slaton (Hou)

57. Brandon Jackson (GB)

58. Jamal Charles (KC)

59. Michael Pittmann (Den)

60. Warrick Dunn (TB)

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Randy Moss (NE)

2. Terrell Owens (Dal)

3. Braylon Edwards (Cle)

4. Reggie Wayne (Ind)

5. Larry Fitzgerald (Ariz)

6. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cin)

7. Marques Colston (NO)

8. Chad Johnson (Cin)

9. Torry Holt (SL)

10. Andre Johnson (Hou)

11. Steve Smith (Car)

12. Anquan Boldin (Ariz)

13. Brandon Marshall (Den)

14. Wes Welker (NE)

15. Roy Williams (Det)

16. Santonio Holmes (Pit)

17. Plaxico Burress (NYG)

18. Greg Jennings (GB)

19. Roddy White (Atl)

20. Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ)

21. Donald Driver (GB)

22. Marvin Harrison (Ind)

23. Calvin Johnson (Det)

24. Laveranue Coles (NYJ)

25. Chris Chambers (SD)

26. Dwayne Bowe (KC)

27. Lee Evans (Buf)

28. Kevin Curtis (Phi)

29. Derrick Mason (Bal)

30. Hines Ward (Pit)

31. Santana Moss (Was)

32. Bernard Berrian (Min)

33. Patrick Crayton (Dal)

34. Bobby Engram (Sea)

35. Nate Burleson (Sea)

36. Joey Galloway (TB)

37. Reggie Brown (Phil)

38. Javon Walker (Oak)

39. D.J. Hackett (Car)

40. Anthony Gonzalez (Ind)

41. Sidney Rice (Min)

42. Donte Stallworth (Cle)

43. Deion Branch (Sea)

44. Ronald Curry (Oak)

45. Isaac Bruce (SF)

46. Jerry Porter (Jax)

47. Robert Meachem (NO)

48. Justin Gage (Ten)

49. Drew Bennett (SL)

50. Bryant Johnson (SF)

51. Reggie Williams (Jax)

52. Vincent Jackson (SD)

53. Ted Ginn (Mia)

54. Amani Toomer (NYG)

55. Jabar Gaffney (NE)

56. Kevin Walter (Hou)

57. Laurent Robinson (Atl)

58. Mark Clayton (Bal)

59. James Hardy (Buf)

60. Antwaan Randle El (Was)

TIGHT ENDS

1. Jason Witten (Dal)

2. Antonio Gates (SD)

3. Kellen Winslow (Cle)

4. Tony Gonzalez (KC)

5. Dallas Clark (Ind)

6. Chris Cooley (Was)

7. Jeremy Shockey (NO)

8. Todd Heap (Bal)

9. Vernon Davis (SF)

10. Heath Miller (Pit)

11. Tony Scheffler (Den)

12. Owen Daniels (Hou)

13. Ben Watson (NE)

14. Alge Crumpler (Ten)

15. Greg Olsen (Chi)

16. Donald Lee (GB)

17. L.J. Smith (Phi)

18. Zach Miller (Oak)

19. John Carlson (Sea)

20. Marcedes Lewis (Jax)

KICKERS

1. Nick Folk (Dal)

2. Mason Crosby (GB)

3. Josh Brown (SL)

4. Rob Bironas (Ten)

5. Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

6. Robbie Gould (Chi)

7. Shayne Graham (Cin)

8. Nate Kaeding (SD)

9. Phil Dawson (Cle)

10. Adam Vinatieri (Ind)

11. Josh Scobee (Jax)

12. Jason Hanson (Det)

13. Neil Rackers (Ariz)

14. Shaun Suisham (Was)

15. Matt Bryant (TB)

TEAM DEFENSES

1. San Diego

2. Minnesota

3. New England

4. Chicago

5. N.Y. Giants

6. Dallas

7. Pittsburgh

8. Green Bay

9. Jacksonville

10. Seattle

11. Philadelphia

12. Indianapolis

13. Tampa Bay

14. Baltimore

15. Denver

Fantasy Football: Mock draft

Tuesday August 12, 2008 4:44 PM By Ryan Chatelain

With the 11th pick in this fantasy mock draft, Team #11 selects Clinton Portis, running back, Washington Redskins. (Photo by Getty)

amNewYork fantasy football columnist Ryan Chatelain recently participated in an online mock draft (he’s Team 11) and offered comments on players selected in the first five rounds (and his own players through all 15 rounds)

FIRST ROUND

Team #1 -- LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego

Still the most dependable RB and has monster-game potential.

Team #2 -- Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia

Scored more fantasy points than Adrian Peterson in 2007.

Team #3 -- Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota

Will almost single-handedly beat teams at least a couple of times.

Team #4 – Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis

A strong runner, above-average receiver and goal-line threat.

Team #5 -- Tom Brady, QB, New England

Don’t expect 50 TD passes again, but he’s still first-round worthy.

Team #6 -- Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis

Could gain 2,000 yards — if he ever ends his holdout.

Team #7 -- Randy Moss, WR, New England

Was about 60 fantasy points better than any other WR in ’07.

Team #8 -- Marion Barber, RB, Dallas

TD-scoring stud finally gets his chance to be the starter.

Team #9 -- Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco

Still racked up 1,500 yards in a “bad” season in 2007.

Team #10 -- Terrell Owens, WR, Dallas

A great fantasy receiver, but a questionable first-round pick.

Team #11 -- Clinton Portis, RB, Washington

A safe bet for 1,500 yards and double-digit TDs when healthy.

Team #12 -- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo

Promising young back should take another step forward.SECOND ROUND

Team #12 -- Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis

Probably won’t reach 1,500 yards again, but should still be great.

Team #11 -- Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland

Rarely let his fantasy owners down last season.

Team #10 -- Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville

Failed to reach 70 yards of offense in 10 games last year.

Team #9 -- Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City

High risk, high reward; he played just eight games last season.

Team #8 -- Willis McGahee, RB, Baltimore

Could miss season opener with knee injury.

Team # 7 -- Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

A bargain in the middle of the second round.

Team #6 -- Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay

Has only had a half of a good season, but not a reach here.

Team #5 -- Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona

Became youngest receiver to have two 100-catch seasons.

Team #4 -- Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland

Coming off a strong year and is still on the right side of 30.

Team #3 -- Andre Johnson, WR, Houston

Has only had one 1,000-yard season since 2004.

Team #2 -- Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans

Was arguably the best WR during the second half of ’07.

Team #1 -- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati

One of the most-targeted WRs and best red-zone threats.

THIRD ROUND

Team #1 -- Tony Romo, QB, Dallas

Has a case for being the No. 2 fantasy QB.

Team #2 -- Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati

Could his ankle injury result in a slow start?

Team #3 -- Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans

“Bust” still had more than 1,000 yards in just 12 games.

Team #4 – Wes Welker, WR, New England

Led the NFL with 112 receptions last season.

Team #5 – Santonio Holmes, WR, Pittsburgh

Shouldn’t have been taken above Holt, Smith and Boldin.

Team #6 – Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis

Six straight seasons of 90-plus catches.

Team #7 – Steve Smith, WR, Carolina

Two-game suspension lowers his value.

Team #8 – Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

Set NFL record for pass completions in 2007.

Team #9 – Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants

He’s consistently inconsistent and is always battling injuries.

Team #10 – Roy Williams, WR, Detroit

Fifth-year pro was a 1,300-yard receiver in 2006.

Team #11 – Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants

Had at least 80 yards of offense in every game he finished in ’07.

Team #12 – Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona

Injury history and contract dispute are concerns.

FOURTH ROUND

Team #12 – Thomas Jones, RB, Jets

His stock has been rising since the Brett Favre trade.

Team #11 – Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay

Helped by pass-catching ability and goal-line success.

Team #10 – Laurence Maroney, RB, New England

Value suffers because he only caught four passes last year.

Team #9 – Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati

Tossed at least 26 TDs each of the past three seasons.

Team #8 – Jason Witten, TE, Dallas

It’s a toss-up between him and Antonio Gates as NFL’s top TE.

Team #7 – Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh

Rashard Mendenhall should steal a chunk of his carries.

Team #6 – Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego

A bit concerning: Had one catch in three of his last five games.

Team #5 – Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami

A potential steal here if he returns strong from an ACL tear.

Team #4 – Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver

A top 10 receiver if not for his two-to-three-game suspension.

Team #3 – Marvin Harrison,WR, Indianapolis

Coming off an injury-plagued year at age 36. Who knows?

Team #2 – Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City

Jennings, Cotchery or Coles would’ve been better pick here.

Team #1 – Michael Turner,RB, Atlanta

A fantasy darling, but he could struggle with a bad team.

FIFTH ROUND

Team #1 – Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona

Was decent but unspectacular last season. Just turned 30.

Team #2 – Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland

Rookie from Arkansas has Adrian Peterson-type potential.

Team #3 – Chris Chambers, WR, San Diego

Only has one 1,000-yard season in his eight-year career.

Team #4 – Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets

Had 82 grabs for 1,130 yards last year. And now Favre is his QB.

Team #5 – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina

Rookie from Oregon is struggling to return from toe surgery.

Team #6 – Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay

Will he have same rapport with Rodgers as he did with Favre?

Team #7 – Selvin Young, RB, Denver

Should be a 1,000-yard back, assuming Broncos stick with him.

Team #8 – Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

Was great in 1,292-yard 2006, but lousy in 2007.

Team #9 – Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets

Favre could make 30-year-old into a downfield threat again.

Team #10 – Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh

Only had 732 yards last season. His best days are behind him.

Team #11 – Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle

Engram and Branch are hurt. Should’ve gone with Big Ben.

Team #12 – Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

Doubt he’ll throw 32 TDs again, but should be solid overall.

SIXTH ROUND

Team #12 – Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland

Team #11 – Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit

I’ve been ranking Johnson lower than most people and was surprised to land him here. (I like his skills, but prefer to select players who are more proven.) Expect him to go in the fourth or fifth round of most drafts.

Team #10 – LenDale White, RB, Tennessee

Team #9 – Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati

Team #8 – Roddy White, WR, Atlanta

Team #7 – Julius Jones, RB, Seattle

Team #6 – Derek Anderson, QB, Cleveland

Team #5 – Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City

Team #4 – Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia

Team #3 – Matt Forte, RB, Chicago

Team #2 – Fred Taylor, RB, Jacksonville

Team #1 – Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis

SEVENTH ROUND

Team #1 – Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis

Team #2 – Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay

Team #3 – David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville

Team #4 – Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas

Team #5 – Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit

Team #6 – Santana Moss, WR, Washington

Team #7 – Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle

Team #8 – Rashard Mendenall, RB, Pittsburgh

Team #9 – Bobby Engram, WR, Seattle

Team #10 – Chris Cooley, TE, Washington

Team #11 – Jeremy Shockey, TE, New Orleans

Shockey is expected to be the No. 2 receiving option on an offense that loves to pass. If he stays healthy, he should catch at least catch 60 balls.

Team #12 – Joey Galloway, WR, Tampa Bay

EIGHTH ROUND

Team #12 – DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina

Team #11 – Kevin Curtis, WR, Philadelphia

I’m not in love with Kevin Curtis, but landing a guy who had 77 catches for 1,110 yards as my No. 3 receiver isn’t too shabby.

Team #10 – San Diego Defense

Team #9 – Dallas Defense

Team #8 – Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego

Team #7 – Donte Stallworth, WR, Cleveland

Team #6 – Chester Taylor, RB, Minnesota

Team #5 – Bernard Berrian, WR, Minnesota

Team #4 – Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh

Team #3 – Deuce McAllister, RB, New Orleans

Team #2 – Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis

Team #1 – Derrick Mason, WR, Baltimore

NINTH ROUND

Team #1 – Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland

Team #2 – Minnesota Defense

Team #3 – Alge Crumpler, TE, Tennessee

Team #4 – Felix Jones, RB, Dallas

Team #5 – Chicago Defense

Team #6 – Ahman Green, RB, Houston

Team #7 – Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco

Team #8 – Kevin Jones, RB, Chicago

Team #9 – Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis

Team #10 – Brett Favre, QB, N.Y. Jets

Team #11 – Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee

I felt like I had to grab my fourth running back by the ninth round to have a shot at someone decent. Johnson is a rookie speedster who is making noise in training camp and could steal carries from LenDale White.

Team #12 – Ricky Williams, RB, Miami

10TH ROUND

Team #12 – Eli Manning, QB, N.Y. Giants

Team #11 – Javon Walker, WR, Oakland

I would not be surprised one bit if Walker flops in Oakland. But he’s been successful at times during his career and seems worthy of a 10th-round gamble, in my opinion.

Team #10 – Jay Cutler, QB, Denver

Team #9 – L.J. Smith, TE, Philadelphia

Team #8 – N.Y. Giants Defense

Team #7 – Pittsburgh Defense

Team #6 – New England Defense

Team #5 – Bryant Johnson, WR, San Francisco

Team #4 – Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, N.Y. Giants

Team #3 – Matt Schaub, QB, Houston

Team #2 – Jerry Porter, WR, Jacksonville

Team #1 – D.J. Hackett, WR, Carolina

11TH ROUND

Team #1 – Jacksonville Defense

Team #2 – Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego

Team #3 – Deion Branch, WR, Seattle

Team #4 – Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina

Team #5 – Cadillac Williams, RB, Tampa Bay

Team #6 – Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia

Team #7 – LaMont Jordan, RB, New England

Team #8 – Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay

Team #9 – Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota

Team #10 – Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta

Team #11 – Ladell Betts, RB, Washington

He’s my Clinton Portis insurance policy.

Team #12 – Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore

12TH ROUND

Team #12 – Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville

Team #11 – Jason Campbell, QB, Washington

Admittedly, he looks like one of the worst fantasy backup QBs on paper. I just have a gut feeling about him.

Team #10 – Ben Watson, TE, New England

Team #9 – Ted Ginn, WR, Miami

Team #8 – Isaac Bruce, WR, San Francisco

Team #7 – Tony Scheffler, TE, Denver

Team #6 – Vince Young, QB, Tennessee

Team #5 – Josh Brown, K, St. Louis

Team #4 – Baltimore Defense

Team #3 – James Hardy, WR, Buffalo

Team #2 – Owen Daniels, TE, Houston

Team #1 – Chris Brown, RB, Houston

13TH ROUND

Team #1 – Nick Folk, K, Dallas

Team #2 – Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore

Team #3 – Steve Slaton, RB, Houston

Team #4 – Kenny Watson, RB, Cincinnati

Team #5 – Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit

Team #6 – Darrell Jackson, WR, Denver

Team #7 – Nate Kaeding, K, San Diego

Team #8 – Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England

Team #9 – Leon Washington, RB, N.Y. Jets

Team #10 – Brandon Stokley, WR, Denver

Team #11 – Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle

Mike Holmgren is saying Julius Jones and Morris are interchangeable starters, although many fantasy footballers seem to assume it’s Jones’ job.

Team #12 – Green Bay Defense

14TH ROUND

Team #12 – Rob Bironas, K, Tennessee

Team #11 – Seattle Defense

In hindsight, I should have grabbed Green Bay’s defense in the 13th round. But Seattle could very well end up being the better defense of the two.

Team #10 – Philadelphia Defense

Team #9 – Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans

Team #8 – Devin Hester, WR, Chicago

Team #7 – Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona

Team #6 – Mason Crosby, K, Green Bay

Team #5 – Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Carolina

Team #4 – Terry Glenn, WR (free agent)

Team #3 – Indianapolis Defense

Team #2 – T.J. Duckett, RB, Seattle

Team #1 – Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh

15TH ROUND

Team #1 – Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta

Team #2 – Neil Rackers, K, Arizona

Team #3 – David Akers, K, Philadelphia

Team #4 – Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona

Team #5 – Aaron Stecker, RB, New Orleans

Team #6 – Michael Bush, RB, Oakland

Team #7 – Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis

Team #8 – DeShaun Foster, RB, San Francisco

Team #9 – Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore

Team #10 – Jason Hanson, K, Detroit

Team #11 – Robbie Gould, K, Chicago

Always draft your kicker in the final round. Far too often, the kicker you thought was the best before the season turns out to be mediocre, and a seemingly mediocre kicker ends up leading the league in scoring.

Team #12 – Chris Henry, WR (free agent)

Avoid a lousy fantasy draft

Tuesday August 5, 2008 6:52 PM By Ryan Chatelain

No one wants to emerge from a fantasy football draft feeling demoralized about his new team, believing he’s already out of contention even before the first Cincinnati Bengal gets arrested this season.

But here’s the good news: Lousy fantasy drafts are always avoidable — if you do your homework.

Here are four tips for preparing like a champ.

1. Pulling rank

Don’t rely on a single Web site or magazine’s player rankings. Use them as a starting point, but then adjust your list, taking into account any stats that catch your eye, player news or your own gut feelings. “This magazine has Ryan Grant as a first-round pick,” you might say. “But I’d like to see more of a proven track record, so I’m going to slide him down below Willis McGahee.”

This practice might seem elementary to many veteran fantasy footballers, but you’d be surprised how many people will pick up their first magazine on the way to a draft party.2. Who’s down with ADP?

ADP stands for average draft position — an incredibly powerful tool. It’s a math formula that compiles the results of mock drafts, giving you an idea of when a certain player might be available. Too many owners develop man-crushes on a player and draft him too early. If Detroit’s Calvin Johnson (ADP: fifth round) is the best available receiver on your list and it’s only the third round, you should instead grab a player at another position, knowing you’re still almost guaranteed Johnson in the fourth round.

My general rule of thumb is to reach no more than one round higher than the ADP. Web sites with good ADP indexes include fantasyfootballcalculator.com and ESPN.com.

3. Mock, mock, mock!

Join a few mock drafts at ESPN.com or fantasyfootballcalculator.com, experimenting with different strategies. After each mock, ask yourself if you’re satisfied with the team you picked. After a handful of test runs, not only will you have developed a solid game plan for draft day, you’ll also have an excellent idea of which players will be available in each round.

4. Check him out

After participating in enough mock drafts, you’ll notice you keep ending up with some of the same players over and over again. Now it’s time to be certain you truly want those athletes on your team. Conduct an Internet news search to ensure there are no red flags on the player. For example, did you know Raiders receiver Javon Walker tried to retire last week? If that concerns you, drop him in your rankings and select a wideout you’re more confident about.

Fantasy Football: Player rankings

Friday August 1, 2008 8:32 AM By Ryan Chatelain

As promised, here are my fantasy football player rankings. You’ll notice that I don’t always agree with the status quo, but I’ve tried to explain why I like players more or less than most other fantasy pundits. (FYI: I haven't gotten around to seriously rating defenses and kickers yet.)

Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady, Patriots

Don’t expect 50 TDs again. 35 maybe. Regardless, you’d be crazy to take any other QB over him.

2. Tony Romo, Cowboys

Romo put up bigger fantasy numbers than Peyton Manning last season, and I’m a little concerned that Manning could get off to a slow start if he misses the preseason.

3. Peyton Manning, Colts

I said I was only a “little concerned” about his injury.

4. Drew Brees, Saints

If he avoids the slow start he had last year, he’ll but right there with the top 3 quarterbacks.

5. Carson Palmer, Bengals

Coming off a down year. But we know what he’s capable of, and he has arguably the best tandem of wide receivers to throw to.

6. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

Others are down on him some because the Seahawks lack great receivers. But they lacked great receivers last year, too, and Hasselbeck passed for 28 TDs and nearly 4,000 yards.

7. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

I’m not expecting 32 TDs from him again.

8. Derek Anderson, Browns

In the back of my mind, I think his high interception total and low completion percentage could still pave the way for Brady Quinn to step in if the Browns struggle.

9. Donovan McNabb, Eagles

High risk/high reward.

10. Jay Cutler, Broncos

Still improving. Could really use someone to step up as a strong No. 2 receiver.11. Marc Bulger, Rams

If he returns to his 2006 form, could be a huge steal.

12. David Garrard, Jaguars

Had he not missed four games last season, he would have been a top 8 fantasy QB.

13. Matt Schaub, Texas

Just call it a hunch that he’ll break out this season if healthy.

14. Eli Manning, Giants

Yes, he won a Super Bowl. But I also still remember how badly he struggled at times last season.

15. Philip Rivers, Chiefs

Had nine games last year in which he threw one or no touchdowns.

16. Jake Delhomme, Panthers

I expect he’ll bounce back strong.

17. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

He seems ready to step in as the starter and has talent around him.

18. Jon Kitna, Lions

Had 4,000 yards last season ... but also 20 picks.

19. Jason Campbell, Redskins

The jury’s still out on him.

20. Vince Young, Titans

If he could just put up numbers like he did as a rookie, he would be a worthy No. 2 quarterback.

Running backs

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers

He’s more consistent than A.P. and still has the potential for the monster games.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

Here’s a scary thought: He still has plenty of room to improve.

3. Brian Westbrook, Eagles

Was the second most productive fantasy RB in 2007.

4. Steven Jackson, Rams

Has the potential to be a 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver.

5. Joseph Addai, Colts

Good runner, good receiver, strong goal-line threat.

6. Clinton Portis, Redskins

A sure thing for 1,200 yards when healthy.

7. Willis McGahee, Ravens

I don’t understand why so many others have him as a second-round pick. 1,400 yards of offense and 8 TDs should land him in the first round.

8. Marshawn Lynch, Bills

Should continue to improve, but I’d like to see him get more involved in the passing game.

9. Marion Barber, Cowboys

I love his TD total and how hard he plays. I’m a tad concerned, however, that he has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season. But I expect that to change this season.

10. Larry Johnson, Chiefs

Has the potential to be a top 3 back again. But I have doubts whether any RB can be great in the Chiefs’ offense.

11. Ryan Grant, Packers

I loved what I saw from him last year. But keep in perspective that he has only been productive for a half of a season.

12. Frank Gore, 49ers

Great in 2006, terrible last season. Can new offensive coordinator Mike Martz get him back on track?

13. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers

I think he’s being undervalued. He had over 1,400 yards of offense last year despite not taking over as the starter until Week 6. Don’t expect Cadillac Williams to do much, if returns at all, this season.

14. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

Was tearing up the league last year before he tore up his knee. He’s a gamble, but worth the risk late in the second round or early in the third.

15. Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Still managed 1,000 yards last year despite battling injuries. Imagine if he stays healthy.

16. Reggie Bush, Saints

Some are calling him a bust, but he had over 1,000 yards of offense in just 12 games. I expect the Saints to use him in different ways to increase his production.

17. Jamal Lewis, Browns

All the stats say he should go higher. I just have a feeling the Jamal Lewis bubble will burst this season.

18. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

A guy I feel is overvalued by others. Consider this: Reggie Bush, in a subpar season, averaged more fantasy points per game than MJD, who failed to score 12 or more points in 11 games last season (standard scoring).

19. Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots

Finished last season strong. But he’s not involved enough in the passing game.

20. LenDale White, Titans

Reports out of Nashville say White, a 1,100-yard rusher last season, is working harder and is in the best shape of his career.

21. Selvin Young, Broncos

I’m assuming Denver coach Mike Shanahan will name him the starter. But no one can ever truly predict Shanahan.

22. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders

Just don’t expect the next Adrian Peterson.

23. Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks

Could break out in Seattle.

24. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons

He's talented, but plays on a bad team.

24. Willie Parker, RB, Steelers

Rookie Rashard Mendenhall is expected to steal 40% of his workload.

25. Matt Forte, RB, Bears

Could end up being the top fantasy rookie RB this season.

26. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals

It’ll be interesting to see if he bounces back from a dreadful 2007.

27. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers

Being overvalued in mock drafts. DeAngelo Williams should ensure a running back-by-committee setup in Carolina.

28. Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals

Turns 30 on Friday.

29. Thomas Jones, RB, Jets

Coming off a poor season and he turns 30 in August.

30. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers

If he indeed gets 40% of the Steelers’ workload, including goal-line carries, he’ll make a solid No. 3 RB.

Wide Receivers

1. Randy Moss, Raiders

23 TDs and nearly 1,500 yards last season. It’s a no-brainer that he should be the first WR off the board.

2. Terrell Owens, Cowboys

Not taking into account the year he was tossed off the Eagles roster, he has put up seven straight 1,100-yard seasons.

3. Braylon Edwards, Browns

Very reliable. Only had one poor game last season.

4. Reggie Wayne, Colts

Should put up big numbers, but don’t expect 1,500 yards again.

5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals

I have him rated higher than most. But what’s not to like? He tied for the NFL lead in receptions in ’07 and is the first person Carson Palmer looks for near the goal line.

6. Steve Smith, Panthers

If Jake Delhomme stays healthy, Smith should bounce back with a strong season

7. Marques Colston, Saints

Was arguably the best receiver in the NFL during the second half of ’07.

8. Torry Holt, Rams

In 2006, he had 93 catches for 1,188 yards. In 2007, he had 93 catches for 1,189 yards. There’s no reason not to expect more of the same in 2008.

9. Chad Johnson, Bengals

Injury concerns cost him a couple of spots in the rankings.

10. Brandon Marshall, Broncos

Was the NFL’s most targeted receiver last season.

11. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

I have him ranked lower than most. Probably because I’m expecting a healthy Anquan Boldin to steal about 20 catches from his total.

12. Andre Johnson, Texans

Another guy I have pegged lower than most magazines. I like his skills, but I can’t look past the fact that he’s been a disappointment to his fantasy owners two of the last three years.

13. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals

Has averaged 85 catches over the last three seasons despite missing six games.

14. Wes Welker, Patriots

Tied for NFL lead in receptions with 112 in 2007.

15. Roy Williams, Lions

Was a 1,300-yard receiver in 2006. Battled injuries last season.

16. Santonio Holmes, Steelers

Big-play wideout who is improving, but only caught 52 balls in 2007.

17. Greg Jennings, Packers

Like Holmes, he’s a rising star.

18. Plaxico Burress, Giants

Concerns: He always seems to be batting injuries, and he was too inconsistent last season.

19. Marvin Harrison, Colts

Is coming off an injury-plagued season and turns 36 in August. But when healthy, has been a sure bet for 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns.

20. Calvin Johnson, Lions

He’s not a slam dunk to have a big season, but his potential makes him worth the gamble.

21. Roddy White, Falcons

Before last season, people were calling White a bust. Turns how he just needed a quarterback, instead of a running back, throwing him the ball.

22. Donald Driver, Packers

Some analysts say he’s on the decline. But I think Driver, 33, still has a couple of good years left in him.

23. Laveranues Coles, Jets

Could put up big numbers, but the Jets’ QB situation isn’t great.

24. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs

I’m rating him lower than most others. The Chiefs offense just scares me.

25. Bobby Engram, Seahawks

Gut feeling: I think he could be one of the biggest steals in the draft.

26. Derrick Mason, Ravens

He’s being greatly undervalued in mock drafts. You might be able to land Mason, who had 103 catches in 2007, in the 10th or 11th round.

27. Chris Chambers, Dolphins

He’s too inconsistent for my taste.

28. Javon Walker, Raiders

Too many unknowns. I could see him being great in Oakland, but I can also see him being a flop.

29. Lee Evans, Bills

Was great in 2006 but lousy in 2007.

30. Hines Ward, Steelers

Another WR I’m rating lower than others are. I think the emerging Santonio Holmes and rookie Limas Sweed will eat into his already declining numbers.

Tight Ends

1. Jason Witten, Cowboys

At first, I assumed I would be in the minority who believes Witten should be the first TE off the board. But surprisingly to me, he has been the first TE to go in the handful of mock drafts I’ve done thus far.

2. Antonio Gates, Chargers

The reason he’s not No. 1: In three of the Chargers’ last five games in 2007, he was held to just one catch. Is that because of the addition of Chris Chambers?

3. Kellen Winslow, Browns

I’d like to see him become more of a threat near the goal line.

4. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs

He shows no signs of slowing down.

5. Chris Cooley, Redskins

One of the most underrated fantasy players. He’s quiet, but solid.

6. Dallas Clark, Colts

Can he come close to 11 TDs again? I’m thinking more like 7.

7. Todd Heap, Ravens

He’s one of the best TEs in the game when healthy. Could be a steal.

8. Vernon Davis, 49ers

Didn’t live up to the hype last season, but was still a legitimate fantasy starter. And he still has plenty of upside.

9. Jeremy Shockey, Saints

The fact that he never finishes a season healthy has to be a concern.

10. Heath Miller, Steelers

Pittsburgh likes to use him a lot near the goal line.

11. Owen Daniels, Texans

He racks up the catches and yards, but needs to find the end zone more.

12. Tony Scheffler, Broncos

Is solid but not spectacular.

13. Donald Lee, Packers

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of rapport he develops with Aaron Rodgers.

14. Ben Watson, Patriots

Still has a lot of upside.

15. Greg Olsen, Bears

Might be ripe for a breakout season.

16. L.J. Smith, Eagles

Could be a steal in the last round of your draft. He was one of the better TEs before missing most of last season with an injury.

17. Alge Crumpler, Titans

Gut feeling: I think his numbers will take a huge hit now that he’s at the mercy of Vince Young.

18. Randy McMichael, Rams

St. Louis just doesn’t throw to him enough.

19. Desmond Clark, Chicago

Has put up solid stats the past two seasons, but will the Bears make an effort to get Greg Olsen more involved in the offense, eating into Clark’s production?

20. Leonard Pope, Cardinals

He’s still young and has potential.

Photo by AP

Fantasy Football: Go for upside in later rounds

Tuesday July 29, 2008 1:40 PM By Ryan Chatelain

My weekly fantasy football column returns to amNewYork on Wednesday. This week's topic: Young players who are likely to be selected in the second half of fantasy drafts and who might be ripe for a breakout season. Basically, a very specific group of sleepers.

Here's the column: http://www.amny.com/sports/am-fantasy0730,0,586182.story

Of the six I mentioned, I most like Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall (pictured at right carrying veteran players' equipment this week). If he indeed gets 40 percent of Pittsburgh's workload and goal-line carries, he'll make a nice No. 3 running back on your team or an excellent No. 4 back.

Here are a few other late-round sleepers I like that didn't make the article:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay -- He knows the offense well, seems very mature, has looked good in limited action and has a good cast of supporting characters around him.

Felix Jones, RB, Dallas -- He's not expected to see as many touches as Julius Jones did, but he should be a significant part of the Cowboys' offense, making him a legit No. 4 running back.

Steve Smith, WR, Giants -- Amani Toomer will soon be 34, Plaxico Burress always seems to be battling some injury, and Smith has plenty of upside.

Keep checking Game Face throughout the season for fantasy "extras" that don't make the paper, including this Friday, when I post my player rankings. Also, I would love to make the column and these blog posts more interactive, so if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to e-mail them to me at ryan.chatelain@am-ny.com (or post a comment below).

(Photo by AP)