Legit? Sizing up hot MLB starts

Photo credit: Game Face

Zach Duke’s efficient 2.63-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio should help maintain his early success. (Image: Getty)

By Kyle Stack

You can count on three things at the beginning of every fantasy baseball season: 1) Mark Teixeira will flirt with the Mendoza Line, 2) at least one team in your league will overpay for saves/steals, and 3) there will be a litany of breakout players whose hot starts you have to determine to be legit or facades. The first two will take care of themselves, but the third is vital to either building on your early success or fostering a turnaround. Here are six surprising players to evaluate after the season's first month:

Facade

Alberto Callaspo (2B/SS, KCR)

Callaspo, a career .266 hitter in 399 at-bats entering the year, is fifth in the Majors in batting average (.379). To his benefit, he batted .337 and .341 in consecutive Triple-A seasons from 2006-07. But he might never have met Lady Luck the way he has this year. His .388 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unsustainable, and his 18.1 line drive percentage (percentage of batted balls that are liners) is very low for a player with his batting average.Kevin Milwood (SP, TEX)

It's not good news when a pitcher who has a 2.78 ERA has given up roughly two more earned runs per game on the road (3.80) than at his bandbox for a home ballpark (1.88). That's the quagmire Millwood faces. He has a career 4.80 ERA at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, so that 1.88 figure will correct itself in a bad way. It doesn't help matters that his HR/9 rate has significantly increased (at 1.4 vs. a 0.9 career rate) while his K/9 rate has dramatically dipped (5.0 against 7.1 for his career).

Scott Richmond (SP, TOR)

Try not to pay attention to the 4-0 record. Wins are unpredictable since pitchers have little to no control over their run support. Other stats from Richmond (2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.7 K/9) are impressive at first glance, but the career Minor Leaguer hasn't suddenly cracked the code to prolonged Major League pitching success. His 3.6 BB/9 rate is abysmal, especially since three of the five offenses he's faced rank in the latter half in walks. Also concerning is the 24.4 line drive percentage he's allowed, meaning that lineups are making fantastic contact against him.

Legit

Brandon Inge (3B, DET)

You might look at his eight homers and .609 slugging percentage and think to yourself, "There's no way this guy is for real." His slugging percentage is nearly higher than his on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (.672) last year. He's only three homers off his '08 total. Even though Inge's .287 batting average might shrink to the .250s range, his power is legit. He swatted 27 long balls and drove in 83 runners as Detroit's full-time hot cornerman in '06.

Adam Jones (OF, BAL)

Despite his 20/20 potential, Jones' greatest attribute this year will be runs scored; he's tied for the league lead with teammate Nick Markakis at 29. Batting second in the high-powered O's offense could net him 100-plus trips across the plate. A .395 BABIP will ensure that his .350 batting average falls, but the 23-year-old is showing greater plate discipline. His strikeout percentage is down 3.5 percent from last year, and he's cut his number of swings at pitches outside the strike zone by over nine percent.

Zach Duke (SP, PIT)

While another Zack (Greinke) has moved past sleeper status into full-fledged elite starter territory, Duke is keeping fantasy owners skeptical of his long-term value. A 1.12 WHIP is unusually low for him -- he hasn't finished a year below 1.50 since '05 -- but he has legit stats to support the mark. His K/9 rate has improved a full strikeout from last year, to 5.2. More optimistically, he's cut his BB/9 rate to 2.0, thus opening a strikeout-to-walk ratio to a very respectable 2.63-to-1.

All stats referenced are through May 5.

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