MLB Fantasy Reality: Behind RBIs, HRs & ERA, obscure stats help predict basic ones

3/3/09
mark teixeira
By Max J. Dickstein

MLB Fantasy Reality: Behind RBIs, HRs & ERA, obscure stats help predict basic ones

Photo credit: Game Face

Mark Teixeira, Photo by Getty

By Kyle Stack

Special to amNewYork

The task of figuring out which baseball statistics are most crucial can overwhelm fantasy owners.

Fortunately, there are a few unconventional stats that can closely predict the more common stats categorized in fantasy leagues. Here are four:

BABIP

(Batting average on balls in play)

This is based primarily on luck. Once a batter hits a ball into play, it’s largely out of his control whether it’s caught by the defense.

The typical mean for BABIP is in the .290-.300 range, although more skilled hitters will have naturally higher BABIPs. The Mets’ David Wright has a career .341 BABIP, primarily because he is such a good hitter that his high batting averages are based more on skill than luck.

But looking at the Cubs’ Milton Bradley, his .396 BABIP last season was inordinately high compared with the rest of his career. That indicates his luck should regress closer to the mean this year, so it’s unlikely he’ll approach his .321 batting average of 2008.

FB%

(Fly ball percentage)

Calculated by dividing the number of fly balls hit by the sum of fly balls, ground balls and line drives, FB% can measure home run probability.

Mark Teixeira of the Yankees is an annual 30-home run threat because 39 percent of his career balls hit in play are flies. The more often you put the ball in the air, the more likely you are to go yard. A player who maintains his FB% yet sees a dip in home runs is likely just having bad luck.

GB/FB

(Ground ball/fly ball rate)

The alarms should go off if you find your favorite pitcher with a GB/FB rate near 1-to-1 or below.

You should want your pitchers to serve as many ground balls as possible, since they’re easier for defenses to corral than liners and flies. (You might say pop-ups are desirable, but fly balls can become home runs.)

Padres ace Jake Peavy, for example, is an elite pitcher despite a career GB/FB rate of 1.08 because San Diego’s PETCO Park has one of the largest outfields in the majors.

K/9

(Strikeouts per 9 innings rate)

The K/9 rate is calculated by multiplying total strikeouts by nine, then dividing by total innings.

Any pitcher with a rate of 7 or higher is valuable in fantasy, no matter how high his ERA or WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). Strikeout pitchers are more likely to have lower pitching averages; they can get batters out without depending on their defense to convert the out.

A K/9 rate of 9 or higher is considered elite, although most starters won’t post a double-digit K/9 rate due to their high number of innings. Boston’s John Smoltz and the Cubs’ Rich Harden were the only two to do so last season.
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mark teixeira

MLB Fantasy Reality: Behind RBIs, HRs & ERA, obscure stats help predict basic ones

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