MLB Preview: Who will be the next unexpected National League World Series representative?

Photo credit: Game Face

New closer Francisco Rodriguez should help get the Mets an NL East title. (Getty Images)

By Ravi Shankar

Special to amNewYork

National League baseball has seen a trend of unexpected World Series representatives over the past several seasons, with Philadelphia, Colorado, St. Louis and Houston being the last four.

Gone are the days of perennial contenders of the Atlanta Braves variety. The new model for NL success is short-term focused: assemble a good team on paper, make mid-season trades if in contention and hope for a hot streak in October.

With more talent flowing out of the NL than into it this past offseason, expect to see similar playoff races to 2008. However, don’t be surprised if the best team isn’t the one that ultimately competes in the World Series.

NL East

The New York Mets should finally close out a division championship thanks to their new late-inning stoppers, Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. However, holes in production need to be filled at second base, corner outfield, and the back-end of the rotation.

The Philadelphia Phillies rode a power-laden lineup and flawless bullpen to a World Series victory. But the loss of RF Pat Burrell, a shallow rotation and more realistic expectations of the relief corps downgrade Philly down to a wild-card contender.

The Atlanta Braves lost 2008 to pitching injuries and let 1B Mark Teixeira go at the trade deadline. Improved health, the addition of SP Javier Vazquez and some young batting talent will put the Braves back above .500 in 2009.

The Florida Marlins, led by the game’s best-hitting shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, are building a speedy, defense-geared squad that’s probably a year away from playoff contention.

The Washington Nationals upgraded offensively by adding 1B Adam Dunn, but the hacking slugger won’t be enough to overcome Washington's utter lack of pitching talent.NL Central

The Chicago Cubs posted an NL-best 855 runs last regular season before running out of gas in October. The addition of breakout OF Milton Bradley and a potential full season from ace SP Rich Harden will get the Cubs back into the playoffs, but whether they can overcome their 100-year championship drought remains to be seen.

The St. Louis Cardinals, carried on the shoulders of MVP 1B Albert Pujols, disproved skeptics with 86 wins. The Cards’ pitching is sound with the return of SP Chris Carpenter and a young core of skilled relievers, but Pujols’ infieldmates lack the talent needed for a playoff run.

The Milwaukee Brewers will miss SP CC Sabathia’s 11-2 record and 1.65 ERA in 17 starts. His departure to the Yankees leaves a rotation in search of an ace and a bullpen still in shambles, but the Brew Crew’s bats should serve up enough offense for a .500 finish.

The Cincinnati Reds are in the midst of a youth movement, with second-year GM Walt Jocketty having dealt fixtures Ken Griffey Jr. (OF) and Adam Dunn (1B). Starting pitchers Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto, and OF Jay Bruce and 1B Joey Votto — all 25 or younger — are the new faces of a franchise that’s still a year away from contention.

The Houston Astros failed to add any quality arms to help 17-game-winner Roy Oswalt, a managerial lapse that won’t be compensated for by a productive ’Stros offense.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will likely set a new MLB record in futility 2009 with their 17th consecutive losing season. Last July’s trade of OF Jason Bay to Boston leaves the Bucs with no All-Star talent.

NL West

The Los Angeles Dodgers were smart to re-sign colorful OF Manny Ramirez, whose .396 avg and .743 slg in 53 games helped clinch the West for the Dodgers. With Joe Torre managing a talented roster and few threats in their division, a return to the playoffs is likely for L.A.

The Arizona Diamondbacks boast one of the NL’s best pitching staffs, but the Snakes’ young offensive core is still a year away from playoff-level hitting.

The San Francisco Giants changed the face of their franchise last year from the controversial Barry Bonds to the diminutive Tim Lincecum, and the 25-year old responded with a Cy Young performance. An inexperienced offense will keep the Giants from contending in 2009.

The Colorado Rockies further distanced themselves from their 2007 World Series appearance by trading their franchise player, OF Matt Holliday.

The San Diego Padres began a rebuilding phase in 2008 but made very little progress during the offseason, with ownership changes dominating the headlines.

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