NCAA Preview: Three cinderella possibilities

Photo credit: Game Face

By Ravi Shankar

Special to amNewYork

Davidson. Wichita State. George Mason.

For some March Madness fans, the Cinderella stories are more memorable than the champions themselves.

Underestimate these three low-seeded teams at your own peril.

(12) Northern Iowa Panthers (23-10, 14-4)

Could Upset Because: Big lineup, solid road record in underrated conference

The competitive Missouri Valley Conference has a history of March surprises, producing three Sweet 16 teams since 2006. Northern Iowa won “Arch Madness”, the conference’s St. Louis tournament. The Panthers also shared the MVC’s regular-season title with Creighton with the help of an 11-game win streak in January. And in a conference known for raucous, sellout home crowds, Northern Iowa went 8-1 on the road. A 60-57 overtime win over Illinois State gave UNI the conference tournament title.

The Panthers are more than mid-major in size. Forward Adam Koch, 6-foot-8, and 7-foot-1 center Jordan Eglseder combine for 22 ppg. point guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe often slashes and dishes to them. Shooting guard Ali Farokhmanesch chips in two 3-pointers made per game; forward Lucas O’Rear won the conference’s Sixth Man Award.

Early-round road: vs. (5) Purdue; vs. (4) Washington/ (13) Mississippi St.

For UNI to beat defensive-minded Purdue, Ahelegbe must exploit his five-inch height advantage over Boilermakers point guard Lewis Jackson. Potential second-round opponent Washington poses a tougher threat with its transition offense, but can be beaten by a tempo-controlling defense.

(13) Cleveland State Vikings (25-10, 12-6)

Could Upset Because: Experienced core, tested against top-25 teams

The Vikings halted Butler’s recent dominance of the Horizon league by stunning the Bulldogs in a conference championship final held on Butler’s home floor in Indianapolis. This is Cleveland State’s first NCAA berth since 1986 when, incidentally, the 14th-seeded Vikings upset No. 3 and No. 6 seeds en route to the Sweet 16. Building off of last year’s 21-13 NIT-invited result, Cleveland State played a relatively strong non-conference schedule for a lesser-known, minor conference school: at Washington, West Virginia and Syracuse, whom the Vikings defeated 72-69 on senior point guard Cedric Jackson’s buzzer beating 60-foot heave on Dec. 15.

The multi-faceted Jackson (10.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.4 apg and 3.0 spg) pairs with small forward J’Nathan Bullock (team-leading 15.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg), giving the Vikings strong senior leadership. In the Horizon final against Butler, Jackson had 19 points (including 4-of-8 on 3-pointers), 7 rebounds and 8 assists, and was named conference tournament MVP. What’s more, Cinderella stories are nothing new to third-year coach Gary Waters, who coached Kent State to a first round upset victory as a No. 13 seed in the 2001 NCAA Tournament.

Early-round road: vs. (4) Wake Forest; vs. (5) Utah/ (12) Arizona

Bigger, faster Wake Forest is less experienced and more careless with the ball (15.8 turnovers per game), giving Cedric Jackson, the nation’s No. 2 thief (3.0 steals per game), a chance to capitalize. Second-round possibilities include Utah — another turnover-prone team with a strong inside game — or Arizona (19-13), whose star-studded lineup can’t seem to consistently win.

(7) California Golden Bears (22-10, 11-7)

Could Upset Because: Strength of schedule, wins against top-25 teams

It’s rare that the Pac-10’s third-place team can be considered a sleeper, but Cal really isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Even Pac-10 regular-season champion Washington earned only a No. 4 seed. Washington, UCLA and Arizona State commanded most of the attention in the conference this year, but Cal quietly finished tied for third with ASU. Those same Sun Devils blew out the visiting Golden Bears to end the regular season, and Berkeley didn’t help its cause with a lackluster quarterfinal against USC in the conference tournament. Still, Cal won seven games against eventual NCAA tournament teams selected.

Cal’s backcourt features two All-Pac-10 first teamers, point guard Jerome Randle and shooting guard Patrick Christopher. The speedy, 5-foot-10 Randle was the conference’s third-highest scorer this season with 18.4 ppg. The Golden Bears led the conference in 3-point percentage (.434) and were second in free throw percentage (.756) — statistics that are hallmarks of Cinderellas from years past.

Early-round road: vs. (10) Maryland; vs. (2) Memphis/(15) Cal St. Northridge

Cal is active enough on the boards to exploit Maryland’s poor rebounding ability, but it will need to shut down the Terps’ small forward Greivis Vasquez to advance. Beating likely second-round opponent Memphis will require both Cal guards to clamp down on Tigers’ big, athletic point guard, Tyreke Evans.

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