Off and running: Steals on the rise

6/17/09
stolen bases
By Ryan Chatelain

Off and running: Steals on the rise

Photo credit: Game Face

Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford could become the first player since Rickey Henderson in 1988 to steal 90 bases. (Photo by Getty)

By Ryan Chatelain

Check the runner at first. For the first time in years, chances are good he’ll be running.

The stolen base has re-emerged this season as a major part of America’s favorite pastime. And the reason that this once-dying art form has returned is largely believed to be the same reason that led to its decline earlier this decade: steroids.

Fueled by the steroids era, baseball saw all-time highs earlier this decade in its power numbers but also its lowest stolen base totals since the early 1970s.

This season, major league teams are on pace to steal 343 more bases than in 2008, and the league as a whole should easily surpass 3,000 steals for the first time in nine years.

“I think people were so infatuated with the home run,” said Tampa Bay Rays speedster Carl Crawford. “Now that the home run totals are going down a little bit, the stolen bases are getting everyone a little bit more excited.”

Crawford, who set a modern-day record last month by swiping six bags in a game, leads the majors with 36 steals and could be become the first player to snatch 90 bases since Oakland’s Rickey Henderson in 1988.

“Maybe it’s because the hitting numbers are down and guys are trying to manufacture more runs,” Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte theorized earlier this month. “But it doesn’t seem like it because you’ve got guys sitting with almost 20 homers already two months into the season.”Pettitte is right. While homers are not nearly as prevalent as they were five to 10 years ago, they are up slightly from last season, meaning this year’s rise in kleptomania may be driven in part by a myth among big-league managers who are increasingly looking to move runners into scoring position.

“What you have is the perception — that because we have a testing program and nobody’s on steroids — there’s less power,” said Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, which analyzes baseball statistics. “That’s not actually true.”

Surprisingly, the American League – which usually trails the National League in steals because it uses the designated hitter – is almost single-handedly responsible for this year’s surge in thefts.

Sheehan noted that not only are players running more, they are becoming more efficient at swiping bags. The American League is stealing bases at a .756 success rate, which would tie a record set by the National League in 2007.

“I think teams have gotten much better at timing pitchers’ moves, figuring out how fast a catcher can get a throw down,” Sheehan said. “It’s not a technological advancement. It’s an evolution of the game. ”
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stolen bases

Off and running: Steals on the rise

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