Arizona Super Bowl prediction: Long marches downfield will key Cardinals' win

Thursday January 29, 2009 2:57 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

The steel-hearted punishers of Pittsburgh: overwhelming favorites.

Kurt Warner’s heart-warming Cardinals: plucky overachievers.

The expected story: The Steelers’ fortitudinous defense writes a brutal final chapter to ’Zona’s Cinderella tale. But I see a brewing upset.

The Cardinals’ historically high-flying passing game is peaking; Warner has thrown eight touchdowns against just two interceptions in three playoff games. He picks from among a trio of 1,000-yard-receiver targets: solid Steve Breaston, arduous Anquan Boldin and lyrical Larry Fitzgerald, sure to further smash his single-postseason receiving record of 419 yards.

If the platoon of Tim Hightower and Edgerrin James gets even modest traction in the running game, Arizona will enjoy prolonged marches downfield.

Pittsburgh’s defense can stop game-breaking plays and keep Warner relatively contained. But that is enough for the Cardinals, who can win behind carefully contructed drives like those that defeated the Eagles’ heralded defense two weeks ago.

The key is to outclass the hobbled offense of Ben Roethlisberger (not in Warner’s class) and keep Arizona’s average defense rested enough to make a key stop in a close game.

Arizona 21, Pittsburgh 20

Column: Roger Federer prepares to face a Spanish lefty (Rafael Nadal?) in the Australian Open final

Thursday January 29, 2009 1:27 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Photo by Getty

By Max J. Dickstein

Roger Federer, one win from tying Pete Sampras with a 14th major title on Sunday, has nothing — and everything — to prove.

He is one of history’s greatest athletes, but Federer’s best-matched contemporary, Rafael Nadal, owns a 12-6 record against him. Federer has made 19 straight Grand Slam semifinals, but a major title on clay, at the French Open, still eludes the 27-year-old Swiss.

Whether it is top-ranked Nadal or the sizzling 14th seed, Fernando Verdasco, a Spanish lefty will be second-seeded Federer’s foe in the Australian Open final. (The Spaniards played Friday, a day after Federer crushed Andy Roddick, 6-2, 7-5, 7-5, in the first men’s semifinal.)

Federer’s career doesn’t parallel those of Patrick Ewing or Dan Marino or other all-time greats who couldn’t “win the big one.” Federer has already done so 13 times over. Rather, the perception is that this tennis player’s accolades, more sterling with each Grand Slam, do not yet reflect the utter perfection he could achieve.

Federer is like a master builder who has lain the foundation for his greatest project and built its first 13 floors. Now, with time and 22-year-old Nadal as his opponents, Federer is trying to complete the project by tying Sampras’ record Sunday and then by winning this June on Paris clay — cementing his legacy.

Giants' Jacobs: Plaxico saga cost us championship

Thursday January 29, 2009 12:05 PM By Ryan Chatelain

If Plaxico Burress didn’t accidentally shoot himself, the Giants would be bathing in champagne Sunday while celebrating back-to-back Super Bowl championships, star running back Brandon Jacobs said.

“If we have Plax on our team, we go 15-1, and we win the Super Bowl,” Jacobs said. “I'm not afraid to say that, and I'll say it to anybody on any team.”

Speaking to reporters Thursday in Tampa, Fla., where the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals will compete in Super Bowl XLIII, Jacobs said the team’s chemistry changed with Burress gone.

“We had a different identity with him, and we didn't have enough time to change our identity to be effective at what we wanted to do.”

Burress was arrested in November after he shot himself in the leg while at a Manhattan nightclub. He faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted of criminal gun possession. Days after the incident, the Giants suspended Burress for the rest of the season.Big Blue had a 9-1 record with their star receiver in the lineup, but was 3-4, including a divisional playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, without him.

But Jacobs insisted he hopes Burress will return to the Giants in 2009 and that he had no feelings toward his teammate.

“A lot of people don’t know anything about what happens or how targeted we are,” Jacobs said. “I'm not going to blame him from protecting himself, but in the end he harmed himself.”

The Giants wouldn’t comment on Jacobs’ remarks Thursday.

Amani Toomer speaks up, shows concern for his future with the Giants

Wednesday January 28, 2009 2:55 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Photo by Getty

Amani Toomer has never been one to speak out against the Giants. But after Big Blue's dismal end to the season, Toomer chimed in, offering his two cents on why the Giant's couldn't recover after Plaxico Burress was removed from the lineup.

"The last couple of games I wasn't a big part of the offense and we lost a big percentage of the games [four of the last five]," Toomer said. "I feel like you can't tell me [that] didn't play a big role in [the losing]. I think it did."

But not wanting to seem too hasty, the 13-year veteran receiver decided to clear the air a little on his Web site, posting a few interview excerpts about the previous day's comments.“I absolutely did not intend to criticize nor did I criticize the coaching staff’s game plans," Toomer said in the posted interview. "What I did say was that I thought the team as a whole had less focus this year than they did last year and that I almost could see this [Eagles] loss coming.”

However, on a new Giants deal, Toomer spoke frankly about his future.

“Based on how my role declined near the end of the season, I just don’t know how the Giants view my role ... If I were to come back and not really have a chance to compete, then I’d rather go someplace else where I would have a chance to compete. So, I guess it’s fair to say I am conflicted.”

— amNY

The Equalizer: Los Angeles Galaxy vs. AC Milan tiff over David Beckham helps legitimize U.S. soccer

Wednesday January 28, 2009 9:41 AM By Max J. Dickstein

Photo by Getty

By Andrew Keh

Special to amNewYork

Los Angeles Galaxy coach Bruce Arena fired a stern warning this week to AC Milan after several members of the club’s top brass publicly expressed their desire to acquire Galaxy captain David Beckham, currently on loan with the Italian side until March 8, on a permanent basis.

In doing so, Arena may have unknowingly advanced Major League Soccer another baby-step toward global legitimacy.

Arena, the former Red Bulls coach, conveyed some amount of exasperation on Monday when he said, “I’m not sure if it’s appropriate for club officials at the biggest clubs in the world to be making comments without having contact with us.”

Milan’s coach Carlo Ancelotti hit back the next day with some passive-aggressive comments of his own, saying, “Milan is a serious club, a very serious club,” before lathering Beckham, an Englishman, with unabashed adoration.

International rhubarbs between club coaches have a long and glorious history on the other side of the Atlantic. Verbal slighting of this kind is an art, and Europeans, as with many other arts, are its original masters.Consider Manchester United coach Alex Ferguson, who, when faced with yet another inquiry last month about the possible sale of star winger Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, declared, “Would I get into a contract with that mob? Absolutely no chance. I wouldn’t sell them a virus.”

Such tiffs are a weekly banality in Europe, but they have generally not found their way to the United States.

Clearly, the press has made more of Arena’s exchange than necessary. By the lofty standards of such garrulous masters as Inter Milan’s Jose Mourinho, the run-in was downright polite.

But its occurrence, in all seriousness, is a real byproduct of American soccer’s recent maturation. American players, now more than ever, are desirable commodities for European clubs.

Some prospects, such as Wake Forest’s Marcus Tracy, who eschewed the M.L.S draft to sign with a Danish club, are jumping straight to Europe. Others, such as Chivas USA’s Sacha Kljestan, who scored a hat-trick for the U.S. this weekend against Sweden, are transfer targets for major clubs.

Arena himself is in the unenviable position of having his two top players, Beckham and Landon Donovan, away on loan, with near-constant speculation that one or both will not return.

The business of moving players can get ugly; that American coaches would one day have to get down and dirty and join in the transfer window tug-of-wars of international soccer was a forgone conclusion.

But for discerning soccer fans in America — who, by nature, I think, crave acceptance — Arena’s little spat should mark a noteworthy moment in the country’s continued emergence.

Andrew Keh is amNewYork’s soccer columnist.

Super Bowl quarterback Kurt Warner rose from his days as a Giants quarterback also-ran behind Eli Manning

Monday January 26, 2009 1:48 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Kurt Warner in 2004 (Getty Images)

By Kevin Garrity

Special to amNewYork

This is the way sports work,” Chad Pennington said, “the way the game of football works.”

That was Dec. 28, after Pennington realized his dream scenario in the regular-season finale against the Jets, beating the team that released him and giving Pennington’s Dolphins an AFC East title.

I was thinking that this Pennington quote could also fit with Kurt Warner, whose Arizona Cardinals will face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday.

After all, Arizona wasn’t supposed to be in Tampa; Eli Manning and the Giants were the sure bet to be representing the NFC there. But that’s how the game of football works.

It was just four years ago that the Giants brought Warner in as insurance for Manning, the No. 1 overall draft pick. General manager Ernie Accorsi and coach Tom Coughlin didn’t want to throw Manning into the fire, so Warner was named the starter toward the end of the preseason in 2004.

Released by the Rams after the 2003 season, Warner was glad to get this chance to prove himself. Things started out well for Warner and the Giants. They were 5-2 and Warner, a two-time MVP with St. Louis, had thrown for more than 1,500 yards and four touchdowns.But just two weeks later, the Giants had fallen to 5-4 and Warner was showing his 33 years by getting sacked 13 times in two games. Coughlin made the move to the young Manning.

I remember the first Wednesday after Manning was given the job. There we were, the hordes of Giants media trying to get our microphones and notepads as close to Manning as possible. And there was Warner, looking old, getting into his practice pads two lockers over. Not one reporter in sight.

If ever there was a scene of an NFL quarterback at the end of the road, that was it.

But you can’t count out a guy who paid his dues in arena football and NFL Europe. And you can’t count out a guy who was signed by St. Louis to back up Trent Green, then led “The Greatest Show on Turf” to two Super Bowls.

In 2005, he signed with Arizona, where he was expected to keep the seat warm for Matt Leinart. Now, Warner has done it again. There will be plenty of reporters to deal with in Tampa, and Warner will love every minute of it.

That’s the way sports work.

Pettitte's back with Yanks at bargain price

Monday January 26, 2009 11:34 AM By Pete Catapano

(AP Photo)

By Pete Catapano

So Andy Pettitte's first loss of the 2009 season has come in January.

The Yankee fan-favorite is putting the finishing touches on a $6 million, one-year contract with the Bombers.

If Pettitte does reach incentives, however, he could make up to $12 million.

Now, it's time for some math, everyone. In December, the Yankees offered the left-hander a $10 million deal, which he rejected.

"They weren't happy with our offer, and we weren't happy with what they wanted," Hal Steinbrenner said at news conference earlier this month.

So, Pettitte and his camp, which my have set out false rumors of interest in him from other teams, bungled horribly and overestimated his value on the market.

Once Houston backed off on their interest in Pettitte on Friday, his value sunk even lower. So now, instead of taking a $6 million pay cut from last year, its now more than $10 million.

While it's fair to say the most Yankee fans are thrilled to have him back, it's also probably fair to say $6 million is about right for a pitcher who went 14-14 last year with a 4.54 ERA.

Now that's settled. Here's our projected starting rotation for the Yankees:

CC Sabathia

Chien Mien Wang

A.J. Burnett

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

Not too shabby.

The foul to end all fouls

Sunday January 25, 2009 9:26 AM By Emily Ngo

Arizona and Houston. Charge. Stomp. Ouch. Bad.

— Emily Ngo

How Berdych saved Federer at the Australian Open

Sunday January 25, 2009 9:26 AM By Max J. Dickstein

Photo by Getty

By Max J. Dickstein

Up 40-15 in the seventh game of the third set, Tomas Berdych shanked several easy shots yesterday and essentially saved Roger Federer.

If Berdych had calmed his nerves, the free-swinging Czech likely would have ousted the second-seeded Federer from the Australian Open in three shocking sets.

But Berdych’s attention and belief slipped enough to allow the Swiss to dig out of a two-set hole with only occasional difficulty.

Two possibilities remain now: either Federer was exposed as vulnerable and runs the risk of a meek loss to another big hitter, Juan Martin Del Potro, in their quarterfinal tomorrow; or the 27-year-old rides his accustomed second-week momentum past elite peers to claim his record-tying 14th Grand Slam.

Torre tell-all: A-Rod was 'A-fraud'

Sunday January 25, 2009 8:56 AM By Pete Catapano

In his soon-to-be released book on his time with the Bombers called "The Yankee Years," a bleak picture of the team's relationship with star Alex Rodriguez is painted.

According to two published reports, teammates frequently called Rodriguez "A-Fraud."

In addition, the book details how A-rod was obsessed with teammate and friend Derek Jeter.

The 477-book, written with Tom Verducci, will be released on Feb. 3. Torre, who last managed the Yankees in the 2007 season, is beginning the second year of a three-contract as manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

— Pete Catapano

(AP Photo)

Phillies try killing Mets with kindness

Thursday January 22, 2009 3:44 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Ed Condran

Special to amNewYork

Because Phillies shortstop/oracle Jimmy Rollins missed a media luncheon at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia this week, there were no salvos fired at the Mets.

Rollins, Public Enemy No. 1 in Queens, has been lobbing verbal grenades at the orange and blue ever since he declared his squad the team to beat two years ago at the same Philly function.Rollins backed up his words by winning the National League MVP while leading the Phillies to a 2007 NL East division title — followed by the Phillies’ World Series victory last October.

However, Phillies setup man Ryan Madson refused to offer bulletin-board material for the Mets, his team’s archrival.

“I’ll let Jimmy make those statements and predictions,” Madson said. “I will say that the Mets are a very good team. There is no question about that. They’re going to be tough. But as far as the Phillies-Mets thing goes, I’ll just let what we did last October speak for itself.”

While the Phillies became champions, the Mets missed the playoffs with a second straight September swoon.

The teams’ bullpens highlighted the difference. The Phillies’ staff was anchored by closer Brad Lidge, perfect in 48 save situations, and Madson, who hit 98 on the radar gun during the stretch drive. Meanwhile, the Mets tied a franchise record by blowing 29 saves, 16 after the All-Star break.

“I think you have to note that Billy Wagner got hurt and it’s so difficult to replace your closer mid-season like the Mets had to do,” Madson said. “That’s part of the reason the Mets finished the way they did.”

The Mets replaced Wagner, out for 2009 with an elbow injury, with Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez, who signed a three-year, $37 million deal in December.

Phillies reliever Scott Eyre, who watched Rodriguez emerge during the 2002 World Series from the opposing dugout, said the Mets have improved dramatically by adding the former Angel, who posted a MLB-record 62 saves last season.

“I watched him [as a San Francisco Giant] and he’s just as good as you think he is,” Eyre said. “He shuts teams down and he’ll be great in New York because he’s outstanding in pressure situations. He’s not afraid of anybody and he has a great arm.”

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel expects the Mets to add a significant piece to their 2009 puzzle.

“I don’t think the Mets are done yet,” Manuel said. “I bet they add [Oliver] Perez to their rotation. I think they’ll add him or someone else. They improved their bullpen so much with those two pickups (Rodriguez and setup man J.J. Putz). I think the NL East is going to be very tough, but then over the last few seasons, when hasn’t the NL East been really tough?”

Real NBA injuries cause fantasy basketball pain

Wednesday January 21, 2009 2:42 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Photo by Getty

By Kyle Stack

Special to amNewYork

One of the pitfalls of playing fantasy basketball is the daily duty of having to track your players’ injuries. Although many types of injuries might be familiar to attentive sports fans, their explanations are often blurry.

With help from Will Carroll, a writer for Baseball Prospectus and Football Outsiders who specializes in sports injuries, here are detailed descriptions of three common basketball injuries:

Knee bone bruise

Carroll cautions that there are two types of knee bone bruises: the typical bone bruise might sideline players for only a few games, while the more serious bruise disrupts the knee internally.

“It’s actually inside the knee, where the femur and tibia meet, behind the patella,” Carroll said in a telephone conversation from his Indianapolis office. “That means they’ve lost cushioning, that the meniscus is damaged, and in some cases, the meniscus is gone and the bones are banging into each other.”

Carroll noted that the meniscus and soft tissue in the knee act as a shock absorber that wears down. The amount of time a bone bruise sidelines a player depends on the force of the impact and the speed of treatment. “It’s a little bit of how quickly it gets ice, how hard the hit was and what your pain response is,” Carroll said.

“You hear somebody has a bone bruise, immediately get NBA TV ... and see if you can see the injury,” Carroll said. Fantasy owners can then judge whether the injury is serious.Hamstring strain

Is there a correlation between a team’s style of play and a player’s susceptibility to this strain?

“On a common-sense level, I can say there’s a connection,” Carroll said. “On a data-driven level, I don’t have enough data to say that definitively.”

But there’s no doubt that a hamstring strain — a tearing of the muscle fibers in the rear of the thigh — is more prevalent in basketball than in other sports.

“They do more jumping than running, really, and so their quads tend to be ... stronger, outside the range you’d like to see, compared to the hamstring,” Carroll said of hoopsters.

Grade 1 strains aren’t documented as much as more servere ones. “You don’t see the minor ones, because it seems like they play through those,” Carroll said. Grades 2 and 3 are becoming more common; surgery is sometimes an option.

“It’s insane how tight they are, but also how weak they are in things they don’t do,” Carroll said of basketball players’ hamstring muscles. “Guys who play two positions are actually a little more healthy ... because they’re having to do more things, and they’re more well-rounded physically.”

Shoulder strain

Boston’s Kendrick Perkins is the most prominent NBAer currently afflicted with this injury, which Carroll said typically occurs in the same way.

“Almost always in basketball, shoulder strains are the result of going up for a rebound,” Carroll said. Carroll said players will occasionally strain their shoulders while getting fouled on a shot attempt, when their shoulder is pulled backward in the process.

“It’s basically the muscle going past its breaking point and being stretched and tearing,” Carroll said. “How much it tears determines how long somebody will be out.”

Grade 1 strains, which Carroll noted are the most common, often derail players for a couple of weeks. Perkins’ shoulder falls into that category. Grade 2 strains can shelve a player up to a month; Grade 3 strains threaten to wipe out a player’s season.

Rehabilitation is best without too much weight training, Carroll said.

“If you strengthen [the injured muscles], you’re gonna lose flexibility,” he said. “If you lose flexibility, you’re gonna open yourself up to more risk.”

New Jets coach Rex Ryan was once a gangly defensive end for Southwestern Oklahoma State University

Monday January 19, 2009 8:33 AM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan has accepted the Jets' head-coaching offer.

We decided to look back at Ryan's early life a bit today and found out that he wasn't always the imposing man who officially steps into the Jets coaching job at the formal announcement and news conference on Wednesday.

So we called Southwestern Oklahoma State University, where Rex and his twin brother, Rob, both played football from 1981 to 1984 under coach Bob Mazie.

Rex received his bachelor's degree in May, 1987, and we are working on finding more detail about the three-year gap between athletic and academic letters. (It probably has to do with the fact that Rex received a bachelor of science degree and a master's degree in physical education from Eastern Kentucky in 1988.)

Rex arrived on the Southwestern campus in Weatherford, Okla., as 6-foot-2, 180-pound defensive back in the fall of 1981. Here is what the campus looks right right now. The Ryan twins grew up in Lincolnshire, Ill., a Chicago suburb where their father, Buddy, lived when he was the longtime defensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears.

Southwestern's former coach, Bob Mazie, struck up a relationship with Buddy Ryan

at a football camp and recruited the twins to Weatherford.

Thanks to Southwestern's sports information director, Justin Tinder, for the information and photo.

All-Pennsylvania Super Bowl? Steelers and Eagles have conference championship edge

Thursday January 15, 2009 3:32 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By amNewYork

The thought of a Giants-Jets Super Bowl matchup is now just a foolish memory. Instead, this conference championship weekend, we face the prospect of a Super Bowl matchup that would divide Pennsylvania’s loyalties. Here are our picks:

Eagles at Cardinals

Sunday, 3 p.m., FOX

The Cardinals’ all-around efforts earned convincing postseason victories over Atlanta (30-24) and Carolina (33-13). In both games, the Arizona ‘D’ coaxed turnovers from two usually steady quarterbacks and neutralized two elite rushing offenses.

Philadelphia, however, conquered the Giants 23-11 last week by presenting insurmountable problems. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Donovan McNabb is in a groove, and his running back, Brian Westbrook, is as much a threat in the passing game as on the ground. It’s too much of a task for Arizona’s overachieving defense, even if the Cardinals’ vaunted aerial game has a big day at home.

Philadelphia 31, Arizona 24

Ravens at Steelers

Sunday, 6:30 p.m, CBS

If you love defense, this clash between the league’s top two defenses has all the makings of a classic. The Steelers won both regular-season meetings between the AFC North rivals — although the second win came after a controversial call on a game-winning touchdown.

The Ravens’ defense should contain resurgent running back Willie Parker, meaning that neither team is expected to produce a 100-yard rusher. But Pittsburgh’s passing attack — with Super Bowl champion quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and formidable receivers Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington — has an edge over rookie Joe Flacco and his stable of unimpressive wideouts.

Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17

Column: Let’s check some of that Yankees, Mets fever

Thursday January 15, 2009 3:15 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

The champion Giants have left the scene, joining the colossal folly of the Jets on the NFL postseason sidelines.

So we all see it coming: “Pitchers and catchers.”

The preseason baseball prattle will soon flow from New York fans’ mouths, the speakers intentionally heedless of so many years of waiting till next year.

After an offseason — and fortune — spent addressing last season’s deficiencies, Yankees and Mets players may begin reporting to their spring training grounds in Florida on Feb. 14.

The teams’ additions seem to call for giddy, carnival-barker praise.

“Admire the pinstriped pair of aces, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, as good as 40 games won!”

“Behold sure-gloved slugger Mark Teixeira, the second coming of Don Mattingly at first base!”

“Hearken to Mets bullpen beasts K-Rod and J.J. Putz, ready to seal up a World Series Game 7 victory in six strikeouts!”

Please.Free-agent pickups held effusive news conferences and two new stadiums will glitter on opening day in April, but before the season actually begins, let’s allow ourselves a note of caution.

Roster upgrades don’t forgo the need for another season of surprises and streaks, disappointments and injuries — all far less predictable than a new signee’s pledge that he’s in New York to win a title.

Because for these two teams, problems persist.

The Yankees own 26 World Series titles, but none since 2000, when millions misplaced on sour talent began to crush the franchise underneath its own bloat.

The Mets, fine-tuners of the agonizing September collapse, just watched the archrival Phillies enact the title run they seemingly can't.

A long season on the field will allow us to measure hope against reality.

Bring on the baseball.

Australian Open surprises: Who will stun tennis fans this time?

Wednesday January 14, 2009 3:19 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

When the tennis year crackles to life at the Australian Open each January, unheralded players make stunning runs to their first Grand Slam final.

Consider the past three men’s runners-up: Marcos Baghdatis (unseeded, 2006), Fernando Gonzalez (10th seed, 2007) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (unseeded, 2008).

What emboldens these men? Do they negotiate the change from northern winter to Australian summer better than others? Are these showmen consumed by the sense of possibility that pervades the year’s first major?

For whatever reason, a Cinderella tale is likely to unfold again at Melbourne Park, where first-round play begins Monday.Yes, the champion is almost certain to be defending champion Novak Djokovic, top-ranked Rafael Nadal, three-time Aussie champion Roger Federer or fourth-ranked Scotsman Andy Murray.

Fans’ hearts, however, might belong to a new breakout star. Here are three possibilities:

Sam Querrey: The free-swinging San Franciscan, ranked 39th, uncorks a huge serve that keeps him in any match. Steadily improving at 21, he can crack up an interview room, too; his sense of humor will help him keep things in perspective on the court.

Kei Nishikori: The Japanese 19-year-old, ranked 59th, stands into baseline rallies like a seasoned pro. He fought his way into the round of 16 at last year’s U.S. Open, the other major played on hardcourts.

Juan Martin Del Potro: The 6-foot-6 Argentine won four straight tournaments last summer behind a booming serve. He’s ranked No. 9 and the tennis world expects much from the 20-year-old this season; a run to the final is within his grasp.

UPDATE Jan. 22: Kei Nishikori and Sam Querrey were knocked out in the first round, both in straight-set losses

Only Juan Martin Del Potro soldiered on to the second round.

So back to the drawing board on the Aussie predictions angle. Yikes!

Venus Williams, once a popular pick to win the Australian Open, is a seven-time major champion — twice on New York’s hardcourts at the U.S. Open. Those facts made the “Why not Venus?” buzz at the only other hardcourt Grand Slam seem reasonable.

In an Aussie Open preview on Jan. 15, I took the Williams bait. “At 28, she’s still producing great tennis,” I wrote then.

But Williams looked like an ineffectual soul-searcher during her second-round loss on Thursday; she played like her own worst enemy and made me feel like a fool.

When I prognosticate, I am revealing the results of honest reflection on the ability of a particular pick.

I’d prefer to be sincere and wrong than correct while riding a mindless bandwagon. In this case, I have been all of the above — except correct.

— Max

The Equalizer: Marta’s star to grace women's professional soccer in the U.S.

Wednesday January 14, 2009 3:12 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Andrew Keh

Special to amNewYork

In Brazil, there are soccer players whose skills are so transcendent, whose identities are so singular, that they require only one name.

Pelé. Ronaldo. Ronaldinho. Kaká.

Marta.

Women’s Professional Soccer conducts its inaugural draft tomorrow in St. Louis. But regardless of what happens then, the Los Angeles Sol already has its jewel.

On Tuesday, the club officially announced its signing of the Brazilian megastar in a reported three-year, $1.5 million deal. That same day, the 22-year-old Marta was named the FIFA World Player of the Year for the third straight time.

Some have scoffed at the viability of a women’s soccer league in America. These same critics are likely to belittle the idea of women’s professional sports in general.

But, as it’s often said, art has no gender. And Marta is surely an artist.Her defining moment on a soccer pitch came at World Cup 2007 in Brazil’s 4-0 semifinal win over the United States. With her team up 1-0 in the first half, Marta received a ball in the left corner of the field, with defender Stephanie Lopez tight on her back. In one motion, she flicked the ball in the air to her left, while spinning around Lopez to her right. After reuniting with the ball on the other side, Marta easily dribbled by another defender to score.

On the play’s corresponding YouTube clip — which has nearly a million views and offers the rapturous description, “Pure Brazilian Talent! Amazing Goal!” — a commentator can be heard saying, in Portuguese, “There are no words…”

Two years ago, David Beckham was brought to L.A. to recapture the star power and magic of Pelé during his days with the popular New York Cosmos of the presently now-defunct NASL. The jury on Beckham’s career with the L.A. Galaxy is still out.

Now, another international star — affectionately called “Pelé in skirts” in her home country — arrives in the same city with the same goal.

For the record, Pelé has acknowledged the similarities between himself and one of the two players, and it was not the Englishman.

Awful New York Islanders push youth movement

Monday January 12, 2009 2:57 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Young Isles Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau, Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen figure to see more ice time. (Photos: Getty)

By Bill Weisbrod

Special to amNewYork

The good news for the Islanders is that veterans Doug Weight, Bill Guerin and Mark Streit have been healthy and productive for much of this season.

The bad news is that the struggling team’s younger players haven’t.

The NHL-worst Isles (12-26-4) are on pace for their worst season since 2000-01, with only 25 points through 42 games. The prospect of relying on aging veterans doesn’t prefigure long-term success for the franchise.

Fresh off a four-game West Coast swing that produced zero points in the standings and extended their winless streak on the road to 13, the Islanders plan to get their under-30 players in the lineup on a regular basis for the rest of the season, and to figure out what roles their top draft picks from the past few years will play.

First-year Islanders coach Scott Gordon said the team can live with the growing pains of players it considers its future — just so long as those pains are figurative and don’t keep anyone off the ice.

Starting Tuesday night at home against the Rangers (25-15-4), there are regular NHL shifts, in 2009 and beyond, for the taking.“The biggest thing is the continued development of our younger players,” Gordon said, “getting them to progress in the second half and having them have something to build on for next year.”

Weight missed the last two games of the Western trip with a leg injury and isn’t expected to dress tonight, so if the Rangers can contain the Streit-quarterbacked power play (17th in the NHL compared to the Rangers’ 27th), the success of the Rangers’ defense-and-goaltending-centric approach will depend on stopping the Islanders’ younger skill forwards.

“In particular Josh Bailey, Kyle [Okposo], Blake Comeau, Frans Nielsen,” Gordon said. “Those are second-year players. Those are the guys we want to see make the biggest strides just for the fact that they are potentially going to have a big role for us.”

Through the first 42 games, Weight and Guerin, 37 and 38, respectively, lead Islanders forwards in both points and ice time per game. Streit, an All-Star defenseman, leads the Islanders in both categories.

But Weight has joined center Mike Comrie and goaltender Rick DiPietro on the list of Islanders who have lost large portions of the season to injury.

Bailey, Okposo and Nielsen have also missed significant time with injuries this season, but the team wants its blue-chippers to fill the void.

Former first-round draft picks Okposo and Bailey each have a goal and an assist this month, including the first goal of the 19-year-old Bailey’s NHL career. Comeau, a winger who started the season with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL, has two goals and four assists in his past eight games.

Nielsen, a center from Denmark, hasn’t played since Nov. 21, but has resumed skating in practice and is expected back in the Isles’ lineup soon.

Gordon said having bodies back in the lineup will give the team some continuity from one night to the next.

“The biggest change is that we’re getting guys back healthy,” he said. “If we can get those guys back healthy and try to keep some kind of consistency with our lineup, that will be huge for us.”

Time to say bye to playoff byes?

Sunday January 11, 2009 1:23 PM By Ryan Chatelain

By Ryan Chatelain

As I write this (at halftime of the Steelers-Chargers game), home teams that “enjoyed” some downtime last week are 0-3 this weekend.

What once was considered easy street to a conference championship game is suddenly being called into question. In each of the previous seasons, teams that earned a first-round bye were 2-2 in the divisional playoff round. Each of the previous three Super Bowl champs (the Giants, Colts and Steelers) had to play on wild-card weekend, making you wonder if having to play on the first week of the playoffs helps a team maintain its momentum.

Of course, we might be able to chalk up this trend up to coincidence. From 2001-2004, after all, bye-week teams went 13-3 in divisional playoff games and won four straight Super Bowls.

But perhaps the time is ripe now for the NFL to rekindle its discussion about expanding its playoffs.

I had never been a proponent of increasing the postseason field. I think sending 12 of 32 teams to the playoffs feels just right. (Sixteen teams in the NBA playoffs is too many, in my opinion.)

But after New England got shut out of the postseason this year with an 11-5 record, it’s obvious something’s wrong with the NFL’s playoff system. I’m not sure what the answer is, but if you wanted to expand the playoffs to 16 teams, taking away first-round byes entirely, now seems like a great time to fire up the discussion.

After Sunday, the Giants probably wouldn’t put up much of a fight against it.

Take a look at Donnie Walsh's handiwork, Knicks fans

Sunday January 11, 2009 12:55 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

All this talk of the 2010 LeBron sweepstakes might be difficult to put in perpective ... until you look at the Knicks' payroll forecast for after the 2009-10 season.

To take a team from $97.6 million in payroll commitments this season to only $18.2 million two seasons later is a commendable accomplishment.

Bitter Giants fans react to 23-11 loss to the Eagles

Sunday January 11, 2009 11:46 AM By Pete Catapano

(AP Photo)

It's been only a half-hour or so since the Giants were stunned at home by the Eagles 23-11.

That's plenty of time for the Big Blue faithful to share their disgust with the rest of the world. Here's a sampling of Giants' fans reaction from the team's message board.

“The better team won. Period. They smacked us around twice in our own stadium.

Of all the ways to go out, I never thought it would be like this”

“I am crushed. I am bleeding blue right now.”

“this (sic) last few months have been horrible for me. I lose my job, can't find a new one, baby on the way, bills piling up, car is falling apart on me and now the giants are choking against the eagles”

“bring back plax. this team died with him”

“I blame Plaxico for this loss and the previous ones, I mean, since he had those stupid incidents, the team got worse and worse, they guys seemed a little bit down.”

Column: Michael Jordan as Chairman of the Jord

Thursday January 8, 2009 3:18 PM By Max J. Dickstein

Michael Jordan gets set to introduce the Air Jordan 2009 on Jan. 8, 2009. (Max J. Dickstein/amNewYork)

By Max J. Dickstein

Michael Jordan considered the issue.

“Who is going to be the next Michael Jordan?” he asked, repeating a reporter’s question. “That’s not for me to answer.”

After all, Jordan was in town Thursday to launch the 24th edition of history’s most coveted sneaker, Air Jordan 2009.

But then he took a shot.

“It’s basically going to be the consumer response to that individual,” Jordan said. “I’ve been blessed obviously, and to say that someone else won’t be blessed down the road — I’m pretty sure they will.”

To Jordan, this was not a really basketball question on the relative greatness of Kobe or LeBron.

That’s because for the purposes of Jordan Brand, MJ’s unmatched career from 1984-1998 — his five MVP awards, his six titles with the Chicago Bulls, his NBA-record 30.1-point career average — is not the primary cause of his success as CEO of his own Nike spinoff since 1997.

To explain that, Jordan instinctively cited his connection with consumers.

“I think we did a beautiful job,” Jordan said as he admired the porcelain-white shoe. He compared it to a Ferrari among Volkswagens, on sale Feb. 14 for $190. “I think you guys have got to admit that this is a beautiful shoe.”

Behind Jordan’s striped sport coat beat the heart of No. 23, the fearsome champion. But the manner and tone of this Jordan suggested the self-possessed embodiment of a shoe and apparel company, whose chief executive and figurehead turns 46 next month.

“He’s maybe one of the most perceptive and learning people I’ve ever met,” said Keith Houlemard, president of Jordan Brand, describing his boss’ “bandwidth” (Jordan’s day job is president of the Charlotte Bobcats).

And once, before his business acumen overtook his court legend, Jordan played basketball.

A strange moment, frozen in time

Thursday January 8, 2009 1:33 PM By Max J. Dickstein

While looking for photos to help illustrate a column I'm writing about Michael Jordan and his new Air Jordan 2009, I came across a series of never-before-seen-by-me images of the six-time NBA champion chasing Sergio Garcia down a fairway in 1999.

I felt compelled to share this.

Here is the caption accompanying the photo on gettyimages.com:

Michael Jordan and Sergio Garcia

6 Oct 1999: Sergio Garcia of Spain leads basketball legend Michael Jordan of the USA in a sprint down the 16th fairway whilst playing in the Pro-Am of the Alfred Dunhill Cup at the Old Course St Andrews, Fife, Scotland. \ Mandatory Credit: David Cannon/Allsport

— Max Dickstein

It's 'hell' for Giants fan in Eagle country

Thursday January 8, 2009 12:30 PM By Ryan Chatelain

Brian Murray, left, attends a Giants-Eagles game with Philadelphia fans.

BY Ryan Chatelain

Philadelphia Eagles fans have pelted Santa Claus with snowballs and cheered when ex-Cowboy Michael Irvin suffered a career-ending spinal cord injury.

So imagine being a fan of a rival team while living and working in the heart of Eagles territory.

Welcome to Brian Murray’s personal hell.

“They’re brutal here,” said Murray, 30, a lifelong Giants fan and Brooklyn native who now lives in a Philly suburb.The Giants will host the Eagles on Sunday in an NFC divisional playoff game. If Philadelphia upsets Big Blue, not only will it be a dejected end of the season for Giants fans, Murray will undoubtedly never hear the end of it from friends, co-workers and even in-laws.

“The Eagles can definitely win, but I think the Giants are going to come out like a pack of rabid dogs and smack them in the mouth,” he said.

Murray, a computer network engineer, moved to Mount Laurel, N.J., four years ago so that his wife could be closer to her family, all of whom are Eagles fans.

He’s since been denied entry to a sports bar for wearing a Ron Dayne jersey, been beaten up outside Lincoln Financial Field and had “what seems like the whole store” at Best Buy chant “a--hole” at him for sporting a Giants cap.

Sean Presner, 26, remembers his first encounter with Murray. When Presner drove up to a movie theater to meet his future brother-in-law, he noticed a man wearing an Eli Manning jersey.

“Sure enough, that was the guy she was with. And we were like, ‘Oh, crap!” said Presner, an Eagles fan.

Murray said he’s had to leave family functions early because he feared heated conversations with his wife’s uncles might escalate into something “that I don’t want to happen.”

It's hard to pick against rested NFL powerhouses this weekend

Thursday January 8, 2009 11:30 AM By Max J. Dickstein

Darren Sproles of San Diego (Getty Images)

This weekend’s four NFL postseason games consist of upstarts facing rested conference powers. Here are amNewYork’s picks:

Ravens at Titans

Sat., 4:30 p.m., CBS

With standout defensive linemen Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch ailing, the Titans desperately needed a bye week. The well-rested duo is expected to return this week and should help Tennessee slow a surging Baltimore rushing offense, putting the game in the hands of the Ravens’ rookie quarterback, Joe Flacco.

No rookie QB has ever won two playoff games.

Tenn. 16, Baltimore 10Cardinals at Panthers

Sat., 8:15 p.m., FOX

The Cardinals’ 30-24 defeat of Atlanta last weekend augured well for a matchup with Carolina (8-0 at home). With 73 yards in 16 carries, thought-to-be-moribund running back Edgerrin James set the table for Kurt Warner and his three 1,000-yard receivers, including Anquan Boldin (tough enough to play despite a strained hamstring).

Arizona, 0-4 back East, may appear overmatched against the Panthers’ third-ranked ground game, but the Cards just bottled up Falcons running back Michael Turner last week.

Ariz. 38, Carolina 35

Eagles at Giants

Sun., 1 p.m., FOX

The Eagles may have won five of their last six games, but they’ve struggled offensively in two of the past three weeks. The Redskins held them to three points in Week 16, and Philadelphia failed to score its first offensive touchdown until 6:37 remained in last week’s win over the Vikings.

Donovan McNabb and the Eagles will likely be in for a tough afternoon against the Giants, who have the NFL’s fifth-stingiest defense.

Giants 20, Eagles 10

Chargers at Steelers

Sun., 4:45 p.m, CBS

Even with do-everything running back LaDanian Tomlinson banged up, the Chargers are a dangerous unit, as Indianapolis found last weekend. Philip Rivers is a formidable QB on a bad day and 5-foot-6 Darren Sproles is emerging as an unlikely every-down threat in Tomlinson’s place. But the top-rated Steeler defense was built to bury a hot team on a cold Pittsburgh evening.

Pitt. 17, S.D. 13

Florida Gators fan brings lucky tie to fourth title game in three years

Wednesday January 7, 2009 8:36 AM By Max J. Dickstein

When Florida faces Oklahoma in the BCS national title game in Miami on Thursday, one Gators fan in attendance will be repeating a ritual she has performed in every title game since the powerhouse school's basketball and football programs began racking up national championships in 2006.

"I love the Gators," said Weinstein, an advertising copywriter in Chicago and University of Florida graduate. "They are such an incredible team. And when they are this good, like national-championship level, I really love watching them play. Plus the whole pride thing of saying I went to all four — and that I am their good luck charm."

The good-luck charm, Wienstein figures, is her, plus the orange-and-white school tie that she has worn around her neck at every victorious Gators title game — April 2006 (basketball), January 2007 (football), April 2007 (basketball again) and this Thursday, when top-ranked Florida (12-1) will be four-point favorites over the No. 2 Sooners (12-1).

"The gator nation is awesome," Weinstein added.

When the fantasy basketball good times stop rolling

Tuesday January 6, 2009 1:29 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

When a player’s performance declines, fantasy owners must first find out why, and then be ready to take action.

Here are two players whose early-season production is looking a lot better than what we’ve seen from them lately — for very different reasons.John Salmons

Shooting guard/small forward, Sacramento Kings

A modestly gifted NBA swingman, Salmons is averaging a career-high 18.9 points this season for the rudderless Kings (8-27).

But since the return of hot-shooting guard Kevin Martin (23.7 ppg) from a left-ankle injury on Dec. 30, Salmons’ numbers have dipped drastically.

In a 98-90 loss Monday against the host Nets, Salmons scored just three points on 1-for-8 shooting; Martin, meanwhile, hit for 36 points off the bench. Salmons is shooting 31 percent from the field in his past four games, and he, like many players on the Kings’ low-morale roster, sounds disgruntled.

Referrign to interim Kings coach Kenny Natt’s staff after Monday’s loss, Salmons told the Sacramento Bee, “They call the plays, so it’s up to them.”

But in fantasy basketball, it’s up to you. Bench Salmons, a negative entity, and drop him absent a strong turnaround (or a favorable real-life trade).

Carlos Boozer

Power forward, Utah Jazz

Boozer the bruiser averaged his accustomed 20.5 points and 11.7 rebounds through Nov. 19 before he returned to injury limbo, where he has often found himself during his seven-year NBA career.

More unexpected is the play of his replacement, third-year forward Paul Millsap, who has notched at least 10 points and 10 rebounds in every game he’s played in Boozer’s former starting spot.

Boozer is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his troublesome knee Friday, sidelining the star for at least another month.

In the unlikely event that Millsap is still available in your fantasy league, snap him up and enjoy his averages of 17.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, 56 percent field-goal shooting and 1.6 steals in 18 games as a Jazz starter.

As for Boozer, it might be worth cutting ties and prospecting for a free-agent gem rather than holding a spot for a great player who nevertheless looks replaceable from Utah’s point of view.

NHL to jazz up All-Star skills competition

Tuesday January 6, 2009 12:04 PM By Pete Catapano

Alex Ovechkin, last year's winner in the breakaway competition (AP Photo)

By Pete Catapano

It's safe to say, most All-Star games are pretty — to be nice — hard to watch. Fine, the MLB All-Star Game has slightly improved drama because the winning league gets home-field advantage in the World Series.

The Pro-Bowl is unwatchable as players avoid getting hurt. Same for the NHL All-Star game. The NBA midseason "classic" meanwhile has as much defense as the pick-up games I see teenagers play at that schoolyard down my block.

However, the skills competitions can be fun: particularly the NBA Slam-Dunk competition that Vince Carter still seems to own the trophy for thanks to his insane performance in 2000.

The NHL now is trying to juice up its skills competition. In this years edition, on Jan. 24, there will be the "Gatorade NHL Elimination Shootout," just announced today.According to the NHL:

"All 36 skaters and six goalies will play the time-honored game of hockey survivor --The six All-Star goalies will conduct a random draw to select the six shooters each will face in the first round. Only the shooters who score will advance. The competition will continue until a round is completed in which only one shooter scores.

"... that won't end until there's only one man left unstopped."

Who's going to win that? I'd bet (if I were a betting man) on Alex Ovechkin. (However ANYONE who wagers on an NHL Skills competition needs immediate intervention.)

Carl Pavano update: Ex-Yank signs one-year deal with Indians

Tuesday January 6, 2009 11:44 AM By Pete Catapano

According to ESPN, Carl Pavano signed a one-year deal with the Indians. Their story said it's worth $1.5 million plus incentives, although financial terms weren't released.

"Carl was very impressed with everything when he visited Cleveland,'' agent Tom O'Connell told ESPN. "He's excited to be there and he feels like this is a tremendous opportunity.''

If he gets a career-ending paper cut finishing up all the paper work, I'll update this again.

— Pete Catapano

Carl Pavano: Reborn in Cleveland?

Tuesday January 6, 2009 10:00 AM By Pete Catapano

By Pete Catapano

This sounds like move right out of classic baseball flick "Major League."

According to ESPN.com, the Cleveland Indians might be looking to sign former Yankees disaster Carl Pavano.

Apparently, Florida and Toronto are also considering him.

This says a lot about the state of pitching in the major leagues. Here's a guy who signed a four-year, $39.95 million deal with the Yanks, only to spend most of the time on the disabled list. He made just 26 starts over those four years because of injury.

He also tried to hide two broken ribs he got in a car crash from the team in 2006.

This is all I can say to the Indians: Good luck with that.

Jets coaching search progress report

Monday January 5, 2009 10:28 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Brian Schottenheimer (Photo by Getty)

By Ryan Chatelain

Our rankings for the Jets’ head coach search. Yes, we ranked them. Yes, we’ll probably be wrong.

1. Brian Schottenheimer, Jets offensive coordinator

He’s already interviewed. The Newark Star-Ledger reports that Schottenheimer, 35, has emerged as the favorite to get the job – although retaining a Mangini protégé would be a tough sell to fans.

2. Rex Ryan, Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator

The Jets received permission to speak with Ryan, who probably helped his chances when his Ravens shut down the Dolphins 27-9 on Sunday.

3. Brian Billick, former Baltimore Ravens head coach

According to NFL.com, the Jets are expected to interview Billick, Rex Ryan’s former boss. No word yet on when an interview with the Super Bowl champion coach might happen.

4. Russ Grimm, Arizona Cardinals assistant head coach/offensive line coach

The former Redskins “Hog” has drawn the Jets’ interest, but no interview is set yet, according to reports. He’s also drawing interest from the Rams, and nearly landed the Steelers job two years ago.

5. Ron Meeks, Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator

He's expected to interview sometime this week for the job. Could be a sleeper.

6. Jeff Jagodzinski, Boston College head coach

Jagodzinski would get fired from BC if he interviews for the job, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports. Further speculation on ESPN on Monday morning suggested that the situation between Jagodzinksi and BC’s athletic director, interview or not, is irreparable. The interview is reportedly set for Tuesday.

7. Steve Spagnuolo, Giants defensive coordinator

Mike Francesca said on his show Monday that Spagnuolo's interview with the Jets didn’t go well. The Newark Star-Ledger backs up the claim, quoting a source that said he “wasn't as prepared as one would think.” This news would appear to rule Spags out for the Jets’ job. He will likely get some other chances at a head coach job; the Broncos, Rams, Lions and Browns are reportedly interested. The Giants might also anoint Spagnuolo as Tom Coughlin’s eventual successor, NFL.com reports.

8. Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator

Several reports say the Jets have some interest in Frazier, but apparently not as much interest as the Rams and Broncos, who have received permission to speak with him about their vacancies.

9. Bill Callahan, Jets assistant head coach/offensive line coach

Rumor has it that this was a courtesy interview and that Callahan isn’t a serious candidate. Despite leading the Raiders to a Super Bowl, Callahan was a flop as a head coach in Oakland and with the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

What Chad Pennington's awful day tells Jets fans upset about Brett Favre

Sunday January 4, 2009 1:37 PM By Max J. Dickstein

By Max J. Dickstein

Did Brett Favre sneak into a Dolphins uniform to ruin Miami’s dream run yesterday? No, but Chad Pennington’s awful performance served as a harsh reminder of how quickly hopes are dashed in the NFL, where hype never lives long. Celebrated as the league’s Comeback Player of the Year last week — for the second time in three years — the former Jet, never comfortable against Baltimore’s fierce defense, repeatedly set his team back with poor throws. For Jets fans who thought the Favre-over-Pennington decision was regrettable this season, the lesson is this: You never know.

More sports issues for the President-elect to mull

Thursday January 1, 2009 12:22 PM By Max J. Dickstein

(Getty Images)

By Max J. Dickstein

“I think it is about time that we had playoffs in college football. I’m fed up with these computer rankings and this and that and the other. Get eight teams — the top eight teams right at the end. You got a playoff. Decide on a national champion.”

— Barack Obama, on Monday Night Football, Nov. 3, 2008

Let’s imagine — disregarding how relatively unimportant the following concerns are in the grander scheme — that we have President-elect Obama’s attention for a moment.

We commend Obama’s stance on the ritual unfairness of the Bowl Championship Series, cited above. The BCS is not really a series, and its annual winner is the victim of an unworthy system unable to produce a championship between two truly legitimate, match-tough college programs.

But where else in the sports world could a President Obama — as he officially be known come Jan. 20 — be an effective agent for change?Institute a salary cap in baseball

The Yankees’ brutish $423.5 million spending spree on free agents CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira this fall is probably more persuasive than a president could ever be on this score, but baseball clearly needs a salary cap — and a salary floor — to help restore competitive balance.

On opening day last year, the Florida Marlins’ $21.8 million payroll was less than 10 percent of the Yankees’ $209 million. Baseball’s piddling luxury tax, of which the Yankees have paid 90 percent ($148.3 million) since it was implemented in 2002, is not working.

President-elect Obama, isn’t it unreasonable to expect small-payroll teams such as 2008 pennant winner Tampa Bay ($43.8 million) to be competitive year after year in such a top-heavy spending climate?

Make NBA contracts nonguaranteed

The NBA and its players union have been innovative in their approach to ensuring competitive balance. Negotiations during the 1999 lockout brought on maximum contract amounts and durations, for example, and a severe, dollar-for-dollar luxury tax on teams that exceed the salary cap has been more of a deterrent to overspenders than has baseball’s system.

But a basic problem remains: NBA teams must fully guarantee balloonish deals, loading down payrolls and reducing player motivation.

The NBA would be better served by a system like the NFL’s, wherein teams guarantee only a portion of their deals.

In such a system, inactive Knicks malcontent Stephon Marbury could be jettisoned easily, and the Knicks wouldn’t need to sacrifice years undoing past contract mistakes.

Beware of road teams on wild-card weekend

Thursday January 1, 2009 11:12 AM By Ryan Chatelain

Michael Turner and the Atlanta Falcons visit the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday. (Photo by Getty)

Watch out for the NFL playoff road teams this weekend. All four of them are amNewYork’s picks in the Wild Card round:

Falcons at Cardinals

Sat., 4:30 p.m., NBC

Let’s call Atlanta’s Michael Turner, who led the NFL in rushing attempts with 23.5 a game, “Churner.” He and steady rookie quarterback Matt Ryan spell doom for the Cardinals. Arizona’s high-flying offense, tied with the Giants for the third-best points average in the NFL — 26.7 — looked erratic in the final five weeks of the regular season, averaging just 21.6 points.

Atlanta 31, Arizona 28

Colts at Chargers

Sat., 8 p.m., NBC

The Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak and are at home. But the Colts, winners of nine straight, are peaking on both sides of the ball. Peyton Manning has completed 82 percent of his passes over the past month, and the defense has held three of its last five opponents to six points or fewer.

Indy 35, San Diego 17

Ravens at Dolphins

Sun., 1 p.m., CBS

The Ravens rendered Miami’s tricky Wildcat formation ineffective in a 27-13 victory over the Dolphins on Oct. 19. The Ravens’ offense, led by another precocious rookie passer, Joe Flacco, has matured throughout the season, with fullback Le’Ron McLain (10 TDs) emerging as a goal-line threat. As long as the Ravens’ crushing defense plays up to its league-best potential, the comeback Dolphins’ dream season will end on Wild Card Sunday.

Baltimore 21, Miami 17

Eagles at Vikings

Sun., 4:30 p.m., FOX

The Vikings and Eagles account for two of the NFL’s top four run defenses, meaning the quarterbacks will be key in this matchup. Since returning from a Week 12 benching, the Eagles’ 32-year-old quarterback, Donovan McNabb, has tossed nine touchdowns and just one interception. Meanwhile, inconsistent Tarvaris Jackson has a week-to-week lease on Minnesota’s starting job.

Phila. 24, Minn. 20