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MLB Fantasy Reality: Behind RBIs, HRs & ERA, obscure stats help predict basic ones
Mark Teixeira, Photo by Getty Special to amNewYork
The task of figuring out which baseball statistics are most crucial can overwhelm fantasy owners.
Fortunately, there are a few unconventional stats that can closely predict the more common stats categorized in fantasy leagues. Here are four:
BABIP
(Batting average on balls in play)
This is based primarily on luck. Once a batter hits a ball into play, its largely out of his control whether its caught by the defense.
The typical mean for BABIP is in the .290-.300 range, although more skilled hitters will have naturally higher BABIPs. The Mets David Wright has a career .341 BABIP, primarily because he is such a good hitter that his high batting averages are based more on skill than luck.
But looking at the Cubs Milton Bradley, his .396 BABIP last season was inordinately high compared with the rest of his career. That indicates his luck should regress closer to the mean this year, so its unlikely hell approach his .321 batting average of 2008.
FB%
(Fly ball percentage)
Calculated by dividing the number of fly balls hit by the sum of fly balls, ground balls and line drives, FB% can measure home run probability.
Mark Teixeira of the Yankees is an annual 30-home run threat because 39 percent of his career balls hit in play are flies. The more often you put the ball in the air, the more likely you are to go yard. A player who maintains his FB% yet sees a dip in home runs is likely just having bad luck.
GB/FB
(Ground ball/fly ball rate)
The alarms should go off if you find your favorite pitcher with a GB/FB rate near 1-to-1 or below.
You should want your pitchers to serve as many ground balls as possible, since theyre easier for defenses to corral than liners and flies. (You might say pop-ups are desirable, but fly balls can become home runs.)
Padres ace Jake Peavy, for example, is an elite pitcher despite a career GB/FB rate of 1.08 because San Diegos PETCO Park has one of the largest outfields in the majors.
K/9
(Strikeouts per 9 innings rate)
The K/9 rate is calculated by multiplying total strikeouts by nine, then dividing by total innings.
Any pitcher with a rate of 7 or higher is valuable in fantasy, no matter how high his ERA or WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). Strikeout pitchers are more likely to have lower pitching averages; they can get batters out without depending on their defense to convert the out.
A K/9 rate of 9 or higher is considered elite, although most starters wont post a double-digit K/9 rate due to their high number of innings. Bostons John Smoltz and the Cubs Rich Harden were the only two to do so last season.
Tags: mark teixeira, david wright, jake peavy, milton bradley, john smoltz, rich harden, fantasy mlb
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Serena Willams wins the BNP Paribas Showdown for the Billie Jean King Cup
(Getty Images)
Serena Williams won the first BNP Paribas Showdown for the Billie Jean King Cup at Madison Square Garden on Monday night.
The best-of-three sets exhibition match was a long, teetering affair belied by the final score of 6-4, 6-3. The crowd, preoccupied no doubt by the advancing hour and the cold night awaiting them outside, seemed to appreciate that the two sisters did not have to contest a third set.
Serena set up the final with a 6-3 no-ad match win against 2008
French Open champion Ana Ivanovic. Williams twice won service games when
she was down 15-40 at 1-1 and 4-2. Venus Williams beat Jelena Jankovic
6-4 in the night's first semifinal.
That made it Williams sisters 12, Serbs 7. The counting this exhibition result, the Williams sisters are not even all-time head-to-head, 10-10.
The highlight of the night was on the court but it did not involve tennis. Rather, it was former President Bill Clinton's spoken tribute to lifelong women's sports activist Billie Jean King, the pioneer who turned 65 this year and whose honors are beginning to equal her accomplishments, as they should.
Though the night dragged on too long from before 7 to after 11:30 p.m. it was a significant night for women's tennis.
P.S. I made an audio recording in which I described the action in situ, but the file is too big, so I apparently can't upload it and you can't hear it. Dear reader, we both share in this loss.
I'll know better next time.
Tags: tennis
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Column: What if they gave a baseball season and nobody came?
Getty Images
Special to amNewYork
There was a famous poster in the 1960s that read: What if they gave a war and nobody came?
No one is expecting nobody to come to New York's two new ballparks this year. But the major question of the New York baseball season does not concern the Mets bullpen, the Yankees free-agent signings or even Alex Rodriguez (is that possible?). With the economy falling faster than a certain team in September (no names necessary), the most intriguing question of the upcoming season is: Will people come?
The month of March represents a waiting game, even for those of us who love the winter sports. It's been another uninspiring season at the Garden, albeit with flashes of excitement from Nate Robinson and the general feeling that things will get better under coach Mike D'Antoni. The Rangers are fighting for a playoff spot because they have lacked one skill rather crucial to a successful hockey team: scoring goals. Martin Brodeur reconfirmed his brilliance by posting two shutouts after missing 50 games with a shoulder injury, but the Devils have never had a big impact on New York's sports consciousness.
And so we wait for baseball.It won't take much to remind Mets fans of the convergence of the economy and baseball this season. Every time they walk into their new ballpark, they'll see one of the major financial players at the core of our economic woes: the bank whose name adorns the new stadium. If they would dare, the Mets could bring back their old Banner Day on that subject alone. But the health of the game this season will be determined by millions of difficult decisions made in homes affected by the economic storms raging outside e.g., I've lost my job, or, I fear I'm about to. Am I going to pony up for four tickets for my family for the game?
The two new ballparks were created at an economic time that now seems like ages ago. And the Yankees spending this off season, all perfectly legit and legal, feels like it took place in an alternate universe apart from the one most of us are living in. We all grew up reading stories of how baseball served as a diversion during the Depression and World War II. Now we get to experience the role the game will play during this modern economic disaster. The buildings have been built. But will people come?
Tags: new york yankees, new york mets, martin brodeur, mike d'antoni, new york knicks, new jersey devils, nate robinson, alex rodriguez, baseball
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Serena Williams, the U.S. Open champ, is the strong favorite to win the Billie Jean King Cup Monday night
A good indicator of the favorite to win the Billie Jean King Cup at Madison Square Garden tonight might be who has fared best on New York hardcourts. Answer: top-ranked Serena Williams, who beat two stars in tonights field sister Venus and former No. 1 Jelena Jankovic last year on the way to a third U.S. Open title. The exhibitions fourth star, Ana Ivanovic, has never even reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
Tags: serena williams, venus williams, ana ivanovic, jelena jankovic, tennis
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Column: Serena Williams finds happiness is on-court excellence
Serena Williams (Getty Images) For months on end after the retirement of mid-decade powerhouse Justine Henin last May, womens tennis was beset with pretenders to the No. 1 ranking.
Whether out of fragility, inability or disinterest, no one player was excelling consistently enough last year in the major events to truly claim the top spot.
Enter Serena Williams, one of the four elite competitors in the first Billie Jean King Cup exhibition at Madison Square Garden on Monday.
Williams is an athletic force who has long been gifted with the skill and drive to keep a stranglehold on the No. 1 ranking even more so than her older sister Venus.
But she drifted through years of periodic, subpar play after her Serena Slam (four straight major titles from 2002-03).
With increasingly few exceptions, the best players in the worlds premier womens sport, Serena included, have compromised their on-court prime in favor of the sort of energy-consuming marketing opportunities fashion, modeling, acting that top male athletes are less exposed to.
But Serena seems to have rediscovered her love of tennis, easily winning the past two Grand Slam events. Winning her third U.S. Open title in September, the champion leaped into the air a dozen times, legs kicking forward. Her Australian Open title in January was her 10th Grand Slam win.
Serenas tennis rivals might do well to reflect on her exuberant surge to the No. 1 ranking; such pleasure in victory is a sure measure of desire.
Tags: serena williams, justine henin, venus williams, billie jean king cup, tennis
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Fantasy Baseball: Dont neglect gems youve already got (sleepers who are keepers)
Jay Bruce (Getty Images)
Special to amNewYork
As February turns into March, most keeper-league fantasy baseball owners are facing deadlines for their lists of retained players. It's not necessarily an easy process, but owners can often overthink their choices.
There are plenty of fringe players to keep your mind racing back and forth between keeping or purging. Here are five under-the-radar sleeper picks who could be much more popular this time next year.
Chris Davis, Texas Rangers (1B/3B)
Age: 22 (Turns 23 on March 17)
Meet the majors next 40-home run hitter.
Davis swatted 17 homers and 23 doubles in just 295 at-bats last season, and he posted a fantastic 14.1 HR/AB ratio in over 1,000 minor league at-bats. His combined career 29.8 strikeout percentage in the minors and majors is nearly Ryan Howard-like, but his combined .285 batting average has proven he can overcome that weakness.
Throw in third-base eligibility and ample playing time in a homer-friendly park, and you have a fantastic power bat waiting to be kept.
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds (OF)
Age: 21 (Turns 22 on April 3)
Justin Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks another much-hyped young outfielder has received more adoration in many fantasy baseball circles, but Bruce will outproduce him this season.
His 21 homers in 413 at-bats last season were more than Upton has hit in any professional season, and Bruce can push that total to more than 30 in a full year. He is Cincys uncontested right fielder, so all thats left for Bruce to show is that he can be as much an offensive force on the road (.636 on-base plus slugging percentage in 08) as at home (.892).
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals (SP)
Age: 25 (Turns 26 on Oct. 21)
I dont typically advocate using keeper selections on pitchers (injuries have greater effects on their performance, making their statistics more unpredictable), but Greinke is an exception.
Most casual MLB fans havent heard of him for one glaring reason: hes a Royal. Nevertheless, Greinke is poised to become an elite starter. Hes a growing strikeout monster (9.1 K/9 rate post-All Star last season) who peeled 2.33 runs off his ERA and 0.28 off his WHIP from 2005-08. Hes on the verge of combining 200 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP this year.
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox (2B/SS)
Age: 27 (Turns 28 on Sept. 22)
Ramirez is at the age when most players reach their power ceiling, so he lacks the statistical upside of others on this list. The rewarding aspect of owning Ramirez, though, is that he is eligible at the two middle infield positions, both of which lack significant depth. Its usually more sensible to retain your best players, regardless of positional scarcity, but Ramirez is a 20 homer/15 steal player who will hit for a respectable average.
He batted .290 last year, and his .294 bases on balls in play average suggests a tad more luck could lead to a .300-plus mark.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox (OF)
Age: 25 (Turns 26 on Sept. 11)
Outfielders are sometimes viewed as a dime a dozen, especially if they arent locks for 25-plus homers. Ellsbury wont go deep 20 times, but the center fielder will give owners loads of his best fantasy-related asset: steals.
What separates Ellsbury, a good bet for 50-plus stolen bases, from other speedsters like Juan Pierre or Willy Taveras is that he isnt one-dimensional. Ellsbury hit with enough pop last year (22 doubles, .729 OPS) to make him somewhat of a poor mans Jose Reyes.
And as Bostons leadoff hitter, Ellsbury should easily surpass 100 runs scored with Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and crew hitting behind him.Five more fantasy prospects to appreciate:
David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays. Strong-armed phenom seems primed for No. 5 starter role.
Jose Lopez, 2B, Seattle Mariners. 20 homers/80 RBIs are plausible at a depleted position.
Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks. Quickly approaching second tier at his position.
Lastings Milledge, OF, Washington Nationals. Has 25 homer/35 steal potential in improving offense.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles. Rookies likely May call-up will be worth the wait.
Tags: jay bruce, cincinnati reds, chris davis, texas rangers, zack greinke, kansas city royals, justin upton, arizona diamondbacks, alexei ramirez, chicago white sox, jacoby ellsbury, boston red sox, jose reyes, juan pierre, willy taveras, david price, tampa bay rays, jose lopez, seattle mariners, stephen drew, lastings milledge, washington nationals, matt wieters, baltimore orioles, ryan howard, dustin pedroia, kevin youkilis, fantasy mlb
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Rangers in talks with Tortorella
Now that the sliding Rangers have fired coach Tom Renney, the team is apparently in talks with former Tampa Bay coach John Tortorella, according to several sources, including Newsday's Steve Zipay

From Zipay's post:
"The Boston-born Tortorella was fired by Tampa in June. The Lightning were 239-222-36-38 and made the playoffs four times in 6½ seasons on his watch."
Tags: rangers, tom renney, john tortorella
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Rangers coach Tom Renney fired
It was only a matter of time.
Unfortunately for the now former Rangers coach Tom Renney, the Rangers players seem to have had given up on him, and spiraled into a rut, winning only twice in their last 10 games. And that includes the embarrassing 10-2 loss to Dallas on Feb. 6.
In his five seasons behind the bench, Renny has guided the team to three post-season appearances, though the team has consistently ended up in third place in the Atlantic Division. And the team got off to a great start this season with the team winning its first five games.Its hard to completely blame Renney for the teams woes.
This season, he faced losing three of his best players - Jaromir Jagr, Martin Straka and Brendan Shanahan - and general manager Glen Sather failed to aptly replenish the offense. Markus Naslund, one of the off-season acquisitions and the teams leading goal scorer, with 18, isnt even one of the top 50 goal scorers this season. They also dont have a top 50 point scorer.
The Rangers have yet to announce a replacement for coach, though it was Sather that Renney replaced, and the GM could potentially return to that role for the remainder of the season.
Despite the teams currently losing ways it lost to Toronto in overtime last night the Rangers are still in third place and the teams 69 points is enough for the No. 6 seed for the playoffs. So its not too late to turn this season around and make a surge.
But if the team fails to find someone to put some pucks in the net, it wont matter who is coaching the team.
Tags: rangers, tom renney, glen sather, jaromir jagr, markus nasland, martin straka, brendan shanahan
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Column: Mike D'Antoni and Donnie Walsh make Knicks trimmer and better
(Getty Images)
The San Antonio Spurs, perennial title contenders, learned Tuesday that this seasons lean, invigorated Knicks are capable of toppling foes who overmatch them in talent but not in zest.
Desperate to end a six-game skid, Nate Robinson, the explosive guard whom team president Donnie Walsh blessedly kept past the trade deadline Thursday, carved out 32 points, and the kinetic Knicks beat the steady Spurs in overtime, 112-107.
Isiah Thomas is history, and under Walsh and coach Mike DAntoni (like amNewÂYork, the Knicks are owned by Cablevision), a sense of excited urgency has set in.
Fit enough for the fast pace of DAntoni, the Knicks average 105.2 points, No. 4 in the NBA. Gone are the walk-up, half-court doldrums of Thomas Knicks, who nevertheless benefited occasionally from fine evaluation of draft talent from 2003-08.
Walsh seems to recognize that young talents such as Robinson and forwards David Lee (a league-leading 42 double-doubles) and Wilson Chandler are worth keeping. Meanwhile, he continues to undo Thomas mistakes by trading away valueless, long-term loafers. Budding stars join hungry vets anxious at the ends of their deals; this could be a playoff team already, with salary cap space ahead.Knicks swing two deadline deals
Two swaps before the NBA trade deadline Thursday upgraded the Knicks talent level without roiling the teams bright salary cap picture.
Knicks get Hughes ...
Chicago sent 30-year-old Larry Hughes to the Knicks for forwards Tim Thomas and Jerome James and guard Anthony Roberson. All four players have deals that expire by 2010. Hughes, a proven scorer and defender, fills a void at shooting guard for the Knicks.
... and Thunders Wilcox
Oklahoma City dealt center Chris Wilcox, a 26-year-old, 6-foot-10 banger, to the Knicks for aging forward Malik Rose and cash. Wilcox, with career averages of 9.5 points and 5.4 rebounds, is owed $6.75 million in his deals final year.
Tags: mike d'antoni, chris wilcox, larry hughes, malik rose, anthony roberson, tim thomas, jerome james, donnie walsh, isiah thomas, san antonio spurs, nate robinson, david lee, wilson chandler, knicks
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Q&A: Knicks forward Al Harrington discusses his new shoe line and his latest tattoo

Al Harrington (Getty Images) Al Harrington has played so well for the Knicks this season that MSG Network announcer Gus Johnson, watching Harrington pour in points, was recently moved to shout over the airwaves: "My name's Al Harrington! I get buckets!"
On the heels of his popularity as the Knicks leading scorer (21.0 points per game through 40 contests), the star forward Harrington is pushing his Protege line of basketball shoes. Sold exclusively at Kmart for $34.99, the A3H is Harrington's answer to both the Air Jordan and the Starbury. He says it's a high-quality shoe at an affordable price. And, Harrington says, they're the shoes the 260-pounder locks into on game night.
We spoke with him Wednesday at the Bryant Park Hotel.
Tell me how convenient it was that the Warriors' colors are pretty close to the Knicks' colors. So you can use that this season, at least, before you redesign it.
Obviously, I couldn't change the name. My shoe is the A3H (Harrington wore No. 3 with Golden State before the Warriors traded him to the Knicks five games into the season). Our next ones, we're going to change it to the "Lucky Mes." I'm No. 7 now, lucky No. 7. Lucky me, yeah. But that was very convenient. We got lucky with that, for real.
It's got a lot of straps.
Yeah well, obviously, my shoe has a lot of straps. That's pretty much to lock your foot into the shoe. Me being 260 playing out there, I need as much support as I can get.
You've got a lot of tattoos. What's your latest?
My latest tattoo ... was my ring finger. I got married, so I got the "MH," my wife's initials, on my hand. So that's my last tattoo.
When was that?
Oct. 6.
Congratulations
Thanks, man.You're having the best scoring season in the 40 games you've played as a Knick. What's the secret to scoring the ball?
Man, just being confident. You got to be confident in yourself every time you step on the floor. I think that's why I get so upset every time I shoot, because every time I shoot I expect to make it. And then you have to prepare also. You have to realize how certain teams are going to play you. Some teams are going to double you, some teams are going to force you into certain areas where they feel you're going to be uncomfortable. So you have to go into a game sometimes with a game plan.
At the same time, it seems like Mike D'Antoni just says, "Whatever happens, keep shooting, keep going."
Yeah, when you get open shots, he wants you to take the open shot every single time. With this offense, it seems like we're just running around crazy, but it's not. We have more structure to it than that. The biggest thing is that we just try to move the ball and let it find the open man. And then, when the open man gets it, just shoot the ball. When we play that way we're usually very successful. You know, we score like 110, 115 points a night.
You've had a number of stops along your career coming out of high school, but you're playing with a lot of joy it seems right now. Can you tell me about that?
Yeah, I mean I'm happy on all fronts. It seems like my life is really coming together at the right time. I'm married, I have my beautiful line out. As far as on the court, I finally got a coach that's allowing me to play my game, you know, let me be who I am. What more can you ask for? You know what I'm saying? The only thing I'm waiting on is some kids. [Laughs.]
Do you have a kid on the way?
No, not yet. I'm working on it.
CORRECTION: This post initially identified the MSG announcer in the first paragraph as Mike Crispino, which was incorrect.
Tags: al harrington, stephen jackson, ron artest, protege, kmart, nba



