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Who will Barack Obama choose as VP?

By David Freedlander, amNewYork Staff Writer
More stories | dfreedlander@am-ny.com

August 19, 2008

Barack Obama could end months of breathless pundit speculation this week and announce his running mate in advance of the Democratic National Convention, which begins Monday.

Speculation has centered around three candidates Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden but observers acknowledge voters could be in for a surprise.

Vice-presidential selections have a tendency to fall into one of two camps: They provide geographic and ideological balance, or they reinforce the presidential nominee's central message.

Recent history suggests that the latter has made for a stronger ticket, as shown by Clinton/Gore in 1992, and Bush/Cheney and Gore/Lieberman in 2000. Many analysts expect Obama to pick someone whose age and outlook remind voters of Obama's message of change.

There is some debate though on how much a number two matters in voter's minds.

"Look at 1988. If George H.W. Bush won with Quayle on the ticket he could have won with anybody," said Dan Coen, co-founder of vicepresidents.com. "Barack Obama is going to have to win this thing or lose this thing on his own."

The Obama campaign has received high marks in many quarters for being unusually opaque about just who it has in mind for the job that has been described as "not worth a bucket of warm spit."

"We analysts have had to pretend to know what they are thinking," said John Dickerson, a senior political correspondent for Slate and the veteran of several campaigns. "And so we've had to get by without really knowing what we're talking about."

With that in mind, amNewYork weighs in:

Evan Bayh: The Indiana senator, 52, served eight years as governor and comes from a famous political family in a Republican state that Obama would love to blue. He backed Hillary in the primaries, which could go a long way to Democrats putting the bitter primary behind them, and he is a rare mix of youth and experience. On the downside, some voters find him unexciting, and grassroots activists have been turned off by his moderate stances on some key issues.

Tim Kaine: The Virginia governor, 50, was an early Obama-backer, hails from a key swing state, and is well-liked by the downscale white voters that Obama has struggled to reach. He is also a religious Catholic, and the Obama campaign has promised not to concede the faith vote to the Republicans this time around. On the flipside, he is the only serious name out there who has less major political experience than Obama.

Joe Biden: The buzz on Biden, 65, has been growing in recent days, and he has just gotten back from Georgia on a fact-finding mission to the war-torn region that allowed him to show his foreign affairs bonafides. The Delaware Senator was sort of an Obama of the 1970s--young, good-looking and articulate. That was before many voters were born, and Biden's name is now synonymous with the Senate.

Jack Reed: The Rhode Island senator, 58, is something of a dark horse, but the last several successful tickets have been bolstered by politicians who had fallen from the media spotlight. Reed is an experienced legislator, a former Army Ranger and is a devout Catholic. He is unknown outside of the Ocean State, but Obama is such a rock star already, does he need another?

Long shots

Al Gore: Gore, 60, is loved by party regulars, grassroots activists, and is felt by many to have been cheated out of the 2000 win. He would be by far the most experienced vice-president ever. But he's got a pretty good gig as a global ambassador right now, and who wants to drink from the bucket of warm spit twice?

Hillary Clinton: The New York senator, 60, comes with 17 million people who already voted for her in the primary, and is beloved by certain segments of the electorate who have been skeptical of Obama. That was one bitter primary battle though, and Obama seems sincere about bringing new faces into the D.C mix