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Undecided voters fuel Clinton, Obama drama

By Emily Ngo, amNewYork Nation/World Editor | engo@am-ny.com

February 4, 2008

A rally was held by supporters of Sen. Hilllary Clinton at Columbus Circle, with an Obama sign visible in the foreground. (RJ Mickelson / February 3, 2008)

Blame the indecisive.

In this neck-and-neck presidential race, vacillating voters are a major reason election results have been surprising political scientists and the public alike.

"I probably won't know until I'm in there punching the ballot," said Ben Brown, 41, of Manhattan. "Hillary is steeped in details, but Obama is fresh."

Late-deciding and easily swayed voters helped results betray projections in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8. Sen. Barack Obama was projected to win by as many as 10 percentage points, but Sen. Hillary Clinton came out on top instead by about 2 percent. The reason was 18 percent of New Hampshire voters didn't choose a candidate until the day they voted, according to pollster John Zogby.

It could be the same story Tuesday when the indecisive cast their votes in more than 21 states.

"They can, on a whim, change their mind," said Fritz Wenzel, spokesman for Zogby International polling. "They wreak havoc on the polling industry because they tell us one thing but do another."

Tuesday marks the first time New York's Democratic voters will influence the selection process since 1992, when the state was pivotal in the nomination of "Comeback Kid" Bill Clinton. In 1996, the party went without a primary, and in subsequent elections, the nominee was more clear-cut. This year, the Empire State has 281 delegates up for grabs, second only to California, which has 441 delegates.

Voters are taking this responsibility very seriously, political analysts said. But a recent Zogby poll showed 14 percent of Democratic voters in New York are still undecided.

"This year has seen such an influx of new voters who know they want to be involved, but they don't know who they're going to support," Wenzel said.

Viable black and female candidates, a compressed primary schedule and a barrage of media coverage have added to the confusion, Wenzel said.

Republican voters have struggled less, reevaluating their options only when their choice nominee drops out of the race.

"Democratic voters are more up in the air this year, because the choices are so different than in the past," Wenzel said. "The Republican candidates are better known, well defined and traditional."

Fraser Dachille, a Republican voter who settled on Mitt Romney after Fred Thompson dropped his bid, said it's easier to distinguish between the stances of the GOP hopefuls.

"There is a definite demarcation between them," the 21-year-old NYU student said.

But then there are also those voters who have known from the beginning which candidates are worth backing.

"Only idiots haven't decided yet," said Brendan Rohan, 36, of Manhattan. "It's supposed to be an intuitive, visceral thing."