Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The Mets, locked in a dogfight with the Phillies, will take two of three games from the Marlins. Oddly, on Saturday morning _ hours before his start _ Mike Pelfrey will further increase his workload by participating in a lobster-eating contest at Joe's Stone Crab. "It was my idea," Jerry Manuel will say. "I told you there would be some damage to some folks in order to achieve our goals."

2. The Yankees will close out their homestand by dropping two of three games to the Blue Jays. Tonight Carl "American Idle" Pavano will allow five runs in 3 2/3 innings tonight, his first Yankee Stadium start since 2007 Opening Day, and Yankees fans will struggle with a difficult decision: Whom to boo more, Pavano or A-Rod?

3. Here is my column on Brian Cashman. Look, by virutally any measure, this has been an extremely disappointing season for the Yankees. But it's clear that Cashman has a plan. Will that plan work? Beats me. But it's a better plan than the 2002-05 idea of "Let's throw money at every player we can, and in the rare instance when we have a good prospect, let's trade him!"

The plan deserves another year to flesh itself out, and Cashman is clearly going to get that opportunity if he wants it.

4. I enjoyed that Hank Steinbrenner publicly proclaimed the Yankees' interest in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. If you're wondering whether this constitutes tampering, the answer is no, because such a sentiment is tampering only if it's spoken by someone who would actually have a role in recruiting the free agents.

5. Since we've been living in Newsday territory for two weeks, my son is actually reading the newspaper, which is nice. And many of you will surely be pleased to know that he is now referring to the Yankees' third baseman as "A-Flop."

Have a great holiday weekend, and thanks to the IMDb for the photo.

Don't tell my competition, but I spoke to Brian Cashman prior to today's Red Sox-Yankees game and intend to write about him for tomorrow's Newsday.

When I asked Cashman whether spending nine figures on another team's free agent would be inconsistent with his philosophies of building from within, not overspending and over-committing years and avoiding risk on big-league veterans who might not feel comfortable with New York, here is how he responded:

"No, not necessarily. Ultimately, what I feel is a strong reluctance to trade three or four assets to another team and then sign him to a multi-year contract. If you trade for a guy, give up three or four assets (and then pay him), then you've crushed your payroll and your assets at the same time."

"We have a lot of stuff coming off this winter. If you choose to play in that (free-agent) marketplace, the one thing you'd be sacrificing is a draft pick ...We're very protective of our draft picks, but for the right player and the right circumstance...I've always said were still big-game hunters. We're just going to be a little more prudent when we decide to take that dip."

In the first paragraph, Cashman obviously was referring to his decision not to trade for Johan Santana last winter.

In the second paragraph, he might as well have been referring to CC Sabathia. That's the kind of high-quality free agent he was discussing.

When I asked Cashman whether he felt the Yankees needed a frontline starting pitcher, the Yankees' GM responded, "I think we have two (Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain) sitting on the DL. They're frontline starting pitchers. Obviously, as we've seen this year, you can't have enough pitching."

Based on what has transpired since the trade deadline _ the continued problems for Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, more signs of slippage from Andy Pettitte _ a Yankees run at Sabathia makes more sense than it did even a month ago. Some Yankees officials are concerned about Sabathia's workload of the past few seasons, as well they should be, but that likely won't deter them too much.

But I still think that Sabathia very much prefers the West Coast and the National League.

I don't see the Dodgers signing Manny Ramirez, not when they already have two outfielders (Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp) who need to play every day and two others (Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre) who are going to be virtually impossible to trade. The Dodgers need starting pitching. With Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux and possibly Brad Penny coming off the books, and with just one year left on the perennially injured Jason Schmidt's contract, a run at Sabathia would make a great deal of sense.

I was chatting with Johnny Damon yesterday, and we were discussing the Yankees' surprisingly impotent offense. You know, the offense that reared its ugly head once more last night, in yet another brutal loss to the Red Sox.

The Yankees entered last night having scored 635 runs for the season _ it's now 638, through 132 games _ and Damon said, "I wonder if I've ever played on a team that scored fewer runs for the season."

Off to baseball-reference.com (linked on the left) I went. Damon has played on worse offensive teams. But it has been a while. These Yankees are on a pace to score 783 runs. Here is how Damon's teams have done, going back to his first full big-league season in 1996.

2007 Yankees - 968 runs
2006 Yankees - 930
2005 Red Sox - 910
2004 Red Sox - 949
2003 Red Sox - 961
2002 Red Sox - 859
2001 A's - 884
2000 Royals - 879
1999 Royals - 856
1998 Royals - 714
1997 Royals - 747
1996 Royals - 746

Here is what went through my brain, as I complied these numbers: "1) Wow, Damon has really been on some superb offensive teams; 2) Well, to be more precise, it's not like he's just a bystander. He often has been a primary reason for teams' offensive excellence."

Anyhoo, when the Yankees put this team together, they figured they could surpass the 900 mark yet again. Why not? Any veteran attrition would be covered by growth from Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan, right?

That they're on target to not even reach 800 runs is the story of their season. And to put it in perspective, let's say they had the 1999 Royals' offense. As you can see here, that club featured Damon in leftfield, AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Beltran in center, the very good Jermaine Dye in right, the decent Joe Randa at third base and a healthy Mike Sweeney at first base. It also gave a ton of plate appearances to catcher Chad Kreuter, shortstop Rey Sanchez and designated hitter Jeremy Giambi, all of whom proved well below avearge, as was highly-regarded second baseman Carlos Febles.

Through 132 games, those '99 Royals had scored 709 runs but allowed 761, resulting in a brutal, 51-81 record (thanks to Retrosheet, also linked on the left). So what if these Yankees _ who, just so we're clear, possess far more talent the '99 Royals _ had scored 709 runs, rather than their actual 638, and given up their actual 603?

Using the Pythagorean winning percentage, detailed in the middle of this item, we see that with a run differential of 709-630, the Yankees should have put up a .580 winning percentage, which computes to 77-55 after 132 games.

And that is exactly the Red Sox's record at the moment. So these Yankees didn't even need to live up to their standards of 2006 and 2007. An offense as good as the '99 Royals', a team that finished at 64-97, would have dragged the Yankees into a tie for the American League wild card.

Here is my column from last night's game. I thought Joe Girardi had interesting things to say about his dugout demeanor, and about the specter of being the guy who, in his first year on the job, ended the Yankees' 13-year playoff streak.

Here is a news story I wrote about visiting Major League Baseball's "command center" for instant replay.

And here is the evidence that Hank Steinbrenner actually attended a Yankees game. It's difficult to take seriously Hank's vows of "a lot going on this offseason," since his role is actually quite minimal.

So sorry I haven't checked in - it has been an extremely busy day.

Here is my Midweek Insider, which leads with Yogi Berra's memories of two encounters with Babe Ruth. This photo is from the first one, in 1947 at St. Louis' Sportsman's Park.

We lost the media game, 9-7, emulating the Mets. We blew a 7-1 lead, and it was 7-4 entering the last inning. I provided no help whatsoever - I went 0-for-2 strikeouts. I've never felt so old swinging a bat. Horrible. Richie G., you got a legitimate LOL from me when I read your comment, "Whatever Ken predicted about the media game, the opposite happened."

Instant trade analysis: Mark Kotsay to the Red Sox? Why not? Can't hurt Boston, which put J.D. Drew on the disabled list on Tuesday.

When you look at how the Red Sox picked up both Kotsay and Paul Byrd this month, and how the Yankees could've blocked both acquisitions and chose not to... you have to wonder how much even they believe they still have a chance this year.

The MLB demonstration on instant replay was interesting. I think it'll work pretty well.

All right, back to the Yankees game. Hope you all had a good day.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Sorry, I've got a busy day ahead of me, including the annual media baseball game at Yankee Stadium and a visit to Major League Baseball Advance Media to see how instant replay will work. Plus, I'll be filing my Midweek Insider. And then there's tonight's Red Sox-Yankees game. So you'll be hearing from me.

For now, however, just the basics:

Here is my column from last night's Yankees game. Just two short days ago, I blogged that fans were blaming Alex Rodriguez too much for this season. But last night...ay yi yi. Fire away at the guy.

One note of interest: I know many of you were concerned that this would be merely the first step, and that we'd soon have instant replay for all fair/foul calls, as well as out/safe and ball/strike.

Here's what Bud Selig said about that, in a conference call about an hour ago: "Not as long as I'm the commissioner."

Ken Davidoff answers your baseball questions in a live chat today at noon.