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MTA: Ridership to fall flat in 2009

By Matthew Sweeney | msweeney@am-ny.com

7:03 PM EDT, July 24, 2008

After more than a decade of growth in transit ridership, the MTA is predicting that bus and subway straphanger numbers will fall flat in 2009.

Ridership on subways has grown dramatically this year -- increasing by more than four percent -- as people have run from the rising price of gasoline. The subway crowds have so far more than made up for a slight drop in bus ridership. But the MTA believes that days of increases are soon coming to an end. The MTA is expecting 2.35 billion bus and subway riders this year and 2.34 billion in 2009.

"The leveling off is due to two factors," said Jeremy Soffin, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. "We grew more than expected in 2008 due in part to high gas prices and two is the loss of jobs due to the cooling off of the economy."

The loss of jobs has a direct effect on the numbers of riders. And the agency's forecasters expect that job losses will outpace any new riders who choose the subway to avoid the high cost of gasoline.

The expected plateau in ridership next year would end a growth trend that -- not counting external factors like 9/11, the 2003 blackout, or the transit workers' strike in 2005 began with the introduction of the Metrocard in the mid-1990s, Soffin said.

Revenue in 2009 from buses and subway fares is expected to be $2.95 billion, slightly up from the projected 2008 revenue of $2.94 billion. The fare hike that took effect in March 2008 will help keep revenue higher in 2009.

Back in February the MTA had anticipated slight, but continued growth through 2012. Those numbers have been pulled back as the MTA expects that its own lowered expectations for service enhancements will mean fewer riders than hoped-for.

It remains to be seen if the MTA's bleak forecast, ending successive years of growth, comes true.

"I think predicting is a little risky and there are conflicting factors," said Gene Russianoff, staff attorney for the Straphangers Campaign.