Polls: Obama gaining on Clinton in NY, NJ

BY MELISSA MANSFIELD | melissa.mansfield@newsday.com

February 5, 2008

ALBANY - Though Hillary Rodham Clinton has a strong lead, Barack Obama is gaining ground among Democratic presidential primary voters in New York and New Jersey, new Quinnipiac University polls revealed yesterday.

The New York senator bests her Illinois counterpart 53 percent to 39 percent in New York. Just two weeks ago she had led him 51 percent to 25 percent.

"Senator Obama has gained yardage in New York, but the clock is running out, and Senator Clinton still has the home-field advantage," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Clinton's margin is even narrower in neighboring New Jersey, where she received 48 percent of voters' support to Obama's 43 percent.

The new survey, which was conducted from Jan. 30 through Feb. 2, shows Obama has momentum on his side, said Sen. Bill Perkins (D-Harlem). "In fact, he has since Iowa shown extraordinary support beyond expectations, not only the diversity of support but the momentum of that support," he said.

Perkins, who heads the Obama campaign in the Empire State, noted that many young people have joined the effort. "We have to give him credit for bringing them into the process in an energetic and enthusiastic way," he said of his candidate.

Clay Richards, assistant director of the poll, said Obama created a coalition of African-Americans and independents to narrow the gap. "The big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first-time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" he said.

Clinton's staff is "taking nothing for granted," spokesman Blake Zeff said, touting the campaign's phone banks and volunteer drives statewide.

On the Republican front, John McCain is the leading candidate in both states. In New York, he pulled a 54 percent approval rating; Mitt Romney had 22 percent and Mike Huckabee 9 percent.

For the New York poll, 370 Republicans and 517 Democrats were surveyed, with margins of error of 5.1 and 4.3 percent, respectively. In New Jersey, 350 Republicans and 463 Democrats participated, with margins of error of 5.2 and 4.6 percent.

The results bode well for Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno noted at a McCain rally yesterday, saying: "Polls are already showing us here ... that he really appeals across all of New York State, regardless of political affiliation."