Obama's North Carolina win a blow to Clinton

BY GLENN THRUSH AND CRAIG GORDON | glenn.thrush@newsday.com; craig.gordon@newsday.com

May 7, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS

Barack Obama scored a resounding win in North Carolina while Hillary Rodham Clinton clung to a narrow lead in Indiana last night - delivering a major blow to Clinton's White House hopes and intensifying a scramble for undecided superdelegates.

Expectations were high in Clinton's camp after she closed a double-digit gap in polls over the past two weeks in North Carolina following the controversy over Obama's firebrand former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. But Obama cruised to a 58 percent to 42 percent win last night on the strength of 91 percent support among blacks, with nearly all precincts reporting.

In Indiana, Clinton was clinging to a 51 percent to 49 percent margin over Obama, with 95 percent of the vote counted. She vowed to press ahead in her quest for the nomination.

"My opponent made a prediction ... that Indiana would be the tiebreaker," Clinton told supporters here late last night, flanked by Bill Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea. "Tonight we came from behind; we have broken the tie. ... This is your campaign; this is your victory."

The big North Carolina loss - coupled with her Indiana squeaker - seriously narrows Clinton's already pinched path to the nomination. With only six contests to be decided over the next month, Clinton trails Obama 1,815 to 1,672 in total delegates, according to The Associated Press.

But last night's results make it virtually impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in pledged delegates - and it seriously compromised her argument to unpledged superdelegates that she is more electable.

"It's got to be disappointing," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "They anticipated a much bigger win in Indiana than they're getting. ... I don't think it moves the ball forward for her at all."

Obama's strong showing - following two stumbling weeks that saw him lose further ground with working-class whites - seems to give him a decided edge with the 268 remaining uncommitted superdelegates.

Also, Clinton advisers acknowledged that her campaign was short on cash, refusing to say if the Clintons have had to lend the campaign more money following a $5-million loan in January. And they said that yesterday's results would make it harder for them to tap new donors.

For Democrats, the results paint a dispiriting picture of division and demographic stalemate, with Obama's win powered by 90-plus-percent wins among blacks - and Clinton's strength remaining her 2-to-1 advantage among white, working-class voters.

And some Clinton allies still worry Obama hasn't proved he can win the white working-class voters who make up the party's core - and are key to winning battleground states like Ohio and Missouri.

"We cannot win with eggheads and African-Americans," Democratic strategist Paul Begala said last night on CNN. He said that's the coalition Michael Dukakis had in 1988 - and won only 10 states.

In North Carolina, Obama, who seemed buoyed after an exhausting two-state campaign, mocked Clinton's assertion last week that the Tarheel State might be a "game-changer" during last night's victory speech in Raleigh.

"You know, some were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election," the Illinois senator said. "But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C."

The Indiana results were slow in coming as election officials in the Obama stronghold of Gary opted to count absentee ballots along with votes cast yesterday, infuriating some Clinton backers.

Clinton's surrogates claimed a win at 10:30 p.m., with Sen. Evan Bayh declaring, "What a victory it is!"

Obama's staff didn't immediately concede defeat here, but he told his supporters that the former first lady had won "an apparent victory."

Clinton's shellshocked staff, which had anticipated a relatively drama-free night, wandered worriedly around the halls of the Murat Center in Indianapolis as Obama whittled down a lead that dwindled from double digits to a virtual tie. Senior Clinton advisers had conceded she could exit the race if she lost both states.

IT'S NOT OVER YET

It's getting harder and harder to chart a path to the Democratic nomination for Hillary Rodham Clinton after last night's split decision - but Barack Obama doesn't have it sewn up yet either. Six contests are left - and the Democrats are expected to split them three apiece. Neither one can get to the required 2,025 delegates without superdelegates - party bigwigs who can choose Obama or Clinton. Here is what each candidate must do to win:

CLINTON

Her long-shot path relies on a series of complicated steps, any one of which could fall short:

Close Obama's lead in the popular vote. Obama is expected to hold a roughly 700,000-vote lead this morning, but Clinton's expected wins in three upcoming races would shrink it.

Persuade the Democratic Party's rules committee to intervene. This usually little-noticed group of about 30 members is going to get a lot of attention at its May 31 meeting, when Clinton supporters will ask them to seat disputed delegates in Florida and Michigan, a boon for Clinton.

Then convince the remaining uncommitted superdelegates that she - and only she - can beat John McCain and that it's OK to give her the nomination instead of Obama. Analysts say that might be impossible because such a backroom deal would infuriate many Democrats - and because Obama showed some resiliency with a big win in North Carolina last night.

OBAMA

His path: Slow and steady wins the race.

Build on his first big-state win since Wisconsin in February with wins in three upcoming states.

Bring fence-sitting superdelegates into his camp by convincing them they can't buck the delegates and popular-vote totals to throw the race to Clinton.

Sharpen his argument that he can beat McCain this fall, despite trouble winning over core working-class white voters.

COMING UP

The remaining contests and the candidate now favored.

May 13: West Virginia (Clinton)

May 20: Kentucky (Clinton) and Oregon (Obama)

June 1: Puerto Rico (Clinton)

June 3: Montana and South Dakota (both Obama)

YESTERDAY'S VOTE

Democratic results as of 11:55 p.m. yesterday.

Barack Obama Hillary Clinton

North Carolina (115 delegates) 58% 42%

Indiana (72 delegates) 49% 51%

DELEGATE SCORECARD

Total delegates at stake: 4,049 Total needed to nominate: 2,025

Won yesterday Other/superdelegates Total

Barack Obama 69 256 1,815

Hillary Clinton 63 270 1,672