In politics, outcomes are rarely certain

Dan Janison | dan.janison@newsday.con

February 8, 2008

Last June, John McCain bemoaned the rush by different states to move up the dates of their presidential primaries into an early Super Tuesday. "It's not good for the country for the whole nominating process to be over by the end of January or the fifth of February," he was quoted in the Arizona Republic as saying. "It's just not healthy."

McCain may hold a rosier view today, after emerging as Super Tuesday's biggest beneficiary. With Mitt Romney withdrawing, the Arizonan is poised to clinch the GOP nomination.

Last July, Terry McAuliffe, a backer of Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Democratic National Committee chairman, was quoted by The Des Moines Register saying: "It'll be over on Feb. 6. We'll have a nominee."

Today, Clinton pours millions of her own dollars into a primary fight against Barack Obama that will end, well, whenever it ends.

The lesson is threefold: Life changes quickly; somebody is always selling an iffy scenario as a sure thing; and public life in America holds deeper mystery than the shills and cheerleaders would have you believe.

Now comes talk of a contested Democratic convention in August. The chatter has sparked a cottage industry of research into presidential nominations in the 1950s that took multiple rounds of ballots. It has also brought detailed recollections in the blogosphere of the power battle at the 1976 GOP parley between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan.

Just how might a convention be "brokered" in 2008?

"How do you make buggy whips?" replies longtime political operative William Cunningham, now a lobbyist and public-relations consultant. "No one has brokered a convention in so long, I don't think anyone knows how. The Democrats nowadays will want to meet in a smoke-free backroom that is visible to everyone. ... Then they'll wonder why there are no leaders like Richard Daley and Boss Tweed anymore."

The problem for Democrats is that a victory by a few delegates, whether they've been chosen by primary voters or party bags, would give any candidate weak propulsion to November. This is not a fringe topic - Legis. Jon Cooper (D-Huntington), an Obama supporter, said he has believed for weeks that this fight will go all the way to the national convention in Denver.

On Wednesday Charles Schumer, New York's senior Senator, who backs Clinton, countered: "I think there was tremendous momentum for Barack Obama over the past few weeks. I think that Super Tuesday switched the momentum. I think there's a good chance a month or two out from now, after Texas and Ohio, Hillary will be the nominee."

Maybe. But this is a far cry from claims that a nominee would be picked by now, showing again that it is best to avoid anyone peddling surefire scenarios.