Presidential candidates go head-to-head on Feb. 5

BY CRAIG GORDON | craig.gordon@newsday.com

January 31, 2008

WASHINGTON - In New York and across the country, the Super Tuesday ballot just got less supersized.

Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards exited the presidential stage yesterday, and for the first time in a year, the two parties' nomination battles boil down to straight-up, two-person duels: Clinton vs. Obama. McCain vs. Romney.

Not only that, the candidates also have to circle New York on their electoral maps - with big chunks of delegates in both party's races that will make it critical to the nomination for the first time in a generation. "This time," said Kenneth Sherrill of Hunter College, "the New York primary is going to mean something."

Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will battle it out across 22 states - where Clinton has a clear but shrinking edge and now must hope Edwards' supporters don't go to Obama in droves.

She may not be able to wrap up the nomination on Feb. 5 - setting up a possible slog that could give Obama time to find his footing and mount a serious challenge, particularly if he secures Edwards' endorsement.

On the Republican side, John McCain has a better shot to win it all Tuesday - particularly with the endorsement of Giuliani, who is hoping some of his 9/11 glow can rub off on his longtime friend.

The expected big wins by McCain in New York, New Jersey and California - where he is poised to receive the endorsement of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger - could help him put Mitt Romney out of contention for good. Republicans Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul are bringing up the rear.

But all the candidates are going to be put to the test on Feb. 5, one of the single most sprawling and challenging days ever to appear on a primary calendar - 20-plus states, coast-to-coast in a single day.

In New York, Clinton can tap a network of elected officials backing her campaign, and McCain will inherit the New York Republican Party that had thrown its support to Giuliani, a particular boost upstate.

But while Romney could largely steer clear of New York and its winner-take-all delegate hunt, Obama hopes to take advantage of Democratic rules that will divvy up delegates among high vote-getters. He opened a second office devoted to volunteer organizing in the fall and is trying to tap grass roots support in Harlem, Brooklyn and the Bronx.

"Do we expect to win New York? No. But do we expect to exceed expectations and pick up delegates? Absolutely," said Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

The impact of Edwards' departure in New York appears mixed, even though conventional wisdom once held that his backers were likely to switch to Obama. But Jonathan Tasini of Manhattan, who is running to become an Edwards delegate and ran a Senate primary against Clinton, said he thinks Edwards' withdrawal plays both ways in New York.

"I think in New York, it helps Senator Clinton in many districts upstate, and downstate, I think - in the city - it will help Senator Obama," he said.

Yet even a strong showing for Obama in New York might not be enough to counter Clinton's advantage in the polls in key Feb. 5 states.

Gone are the days of visiting diners and taking endless questions in town hall meetings. The races comes down to money to saturate the airwaves with TV ads - the one clear edge Romney still has over McCain, and where he already has sunk a chunk of his personal fortune.

5 new keys to the race

In the run-up to Super Tuesday, the withdrawals of Rudy Giuliani and John Edwards likely will mean:

1.Giuliani's base in New York shifts to McCain - who had already begun beating the former mayor in polls here.

2.Mitt Romney could benefit in some parts of the country. But if he does well in New York, it would signal a rebuff to the GOP organization.

3.Edwards' state backers potentially move more toward Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton upstate - and more toward Sen. Barack Obama in New York City.

4. Obama and Clinton both stand to gain more from the New York primary because delegates are assigned proportionally to the vote. (For Republicans, it's winner-take-all).

5.Outside New York, Edwards' labor union support - such as from organized steelworkers and carpenters - may be up for grabs between Clinton and Obama.