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Obama best shot for Dems

(Credit: Politirazzi)

By Adrian

Hilary Clinton is, for at least the second time this election season, touting herself as the “Comeback Kid.” Tout yourself all you want, Hilary, but the Democrat with the best chance to win in the fall is still Barack Obama. Here’s my analysis of the math:

Clinton has won several big primary states, but Obama is winning where it counts — in the heart of Republican country. So far, Clinton has won Pennsylvania, California, New York, New Jersey and Ohio. If this article in the New York Times is correct and Clinton really is attracting large numbers of voters over 65, and she won in Pennsylvania with 60 percent of the over 65 vote, she would have won Florida. Aside from Florida and Ohio, all these states are heavily Democratic — “Yellow Dog Democrats” — as the old saying goes. (For those of you who haven’t heard this saying, it is an old Southern expression meaning that some voters would vote for a yellow dog if it was running as a Democrat.). They are probably going Democrat no matter the nominee.

Obama thus far has swept most Southern states, minus Tennessee. He won in Georgia with more raw votes than the top two Republican candidates combined, won in Louisiana, and won in Virginia. If the poll numbers are correct, Obama should win North Carolina by a wide margin. Obama also won in heartland states like Iowa, Kansas and Colorado, often receiving more votes than the top three Republican contenders combined. Obama’s big numbers in these states make it believable that he could win at least some of these states in the general election. However, he still has to bring home Ohio or Florida to win it all.

(continued) Senator Clinton so alienates independents and Republicans that it would be difficult for her to carry any states that are solidly with the GOP. She appears to have a better chance at locking up some big prizes, such as Pennsylvania and possibly Florida. However, to win these states, the Democratic nominee will have to win over a solid majority of independent voters, voters who Senator McCain has proven he can woo and win over.

There are those who disagree with me. An interesting electoral map is here. Another analysis shows that Obama is making steady progress with seniors, whites, people making less than $50K, and protestant voters.

If all the above analysis demonstrates anything it is that that it’s still too early in the electoral game to make any final determinations. There are no slam dunks in this race; no sure things. Anything can happen day to day — any gaffe, any catastrophe, any big win (such as Osama bin Laden’s capture), which could completely change the race.

Tags: barack obama , adrian lee

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