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Predicting an Obama victory: The breakdown

By Meg Boyle

True story: A few months after the 2004 election, my friend Andrew and I were eating at the best Mexican restaurant in Brooklyn when Alexandra Kerry walked in. This got us talking — quietly — about the election (we had each voted for Kerry) and the sad fact that we had to put up with another four years of the Bush administration. “And when it’s finally over, look at the crap we have in store for us,” I said. “Hillary or Rudy.”

“Nope,” said Andrew, “They won’t be elected.”

“Who the hell will be, then?”

“The next president will be Barack Obama.”

I nearly choked on my huevos rancheros. (I’m writing this while hungry, can you tell?) “What? That teenager who gave the keynote at the DNC? Andrew, are you high?”

He was not high, nor, by the looks of it, was he incorrect. Yes, I’m predicting that Obama will win the election. (Hell of a limb I’m going out on, huh?)But how will he get there? Obama will win the popular vote Tuesday, as Al Gore can tell you, that means nothing, so I’m about to do my best impression of Nate Silver (which is tough as the resemblance begins and ends with the glasses) and tell you how I think the electoral map will shape up. Admittedly, this projection of mine is completely unscientific and only for fun. Consider it the result of reading way too much polling data, a raging crush on Chuck Todd, a few weird hunches and a lot of caffeine, all mixed together and served to you with love.

Here we go:

Obama — 323 electoral votes.

Obama will hold all the Kerry states and will pick up Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. The surprise of the evening? Obama takes North Carolina.

McCain — 212 electoral votes.

McCain takes Florida. The surprise of the evening? McCain gives Obama a run for his money in New Hampshire (though Obama will win the state).

How do you guys think it will go?

Tags: barack obama , rudy giuliani , electoral college , meg boyle

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