Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

When I filed yesterday's item at 8:24 last night, I had no idea about the Billy Wagner news. Gotta love vacation.

So now we're headed for what should be one of the more captivating plotlines in recent years: The Mets are trying to win their division without a closer. They're managing all right so far without Wagner _ 11-4, after last night's victory _ but the challenge will increase once the schedule grows tougher, which happens in earnest when the Mets go to Philadelphia next week.

What I especially anticipate is September, when teams can expand their big-league rosters to 40. That Mets bullpen is going to be so bulky, you're going to think they're performing scripts from "Brothers & Sisters."

In his column in today's Post, Joel Sherman throws some potential names out there: Brandon Knight. Bobby Parnell. Ricardo Rincon. And today, Joel broke the story that the Mets signed Al Reyes, whom the Yankees designated for assignment five years ago, to a minor-league contract. Relievers Are Volatile, Lesson 3,562.

You can envision Jerry Manuel using eight, nine pitchers in a game, if that's what it takes. It should be fascinating.

This must be energizing to the Dodgers. Brad Penny goes down with an injury, and poof! Here comes a 353-game winner to replace him.

I've been in enough clubhouses to know that surge of adrenaline when players feel that management has their backs. It's another boost for Joe Torre's club, in what's looking like a very exciting race for the NL West crown: Torre, Manny, Maddux and Nomah against Arizona's big three of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson.

Maddux, 42, is obviously near the end of his illustrious career, but he's not totally done yet. In the latest example that won-loss records hold minimal value, Maddux has a respectable 1.220 WHIP and 98 ERA+ (meaning he's been a tick below average) to go with that 6-9 record. The Cubs' Jason Marquis, for instance, is 8-7 with a 1.442 WHIP and 96 ERA+.

Here is my column off yesterday's Yankees game. I didn't exactly split the atom, but I thought it was interesting that, as difficult as the Yankees' task is, the solution is quite simple.

Here are your updated playoff seedings:

AL
Angels (1) vs. Boston (4)
Tampa Bay (2) vs. White Sox/Twins (3)

NL
Cubs (1) vs. Arizona/Dodgers (3)
Mets (2) vs. Milwaukee (4)

All right, first day of actual vacation. I'm going to try to figure out the Hamptons, and why people love it out here so much...

Here is my Sunday Insider, in which I checked in with Lastings Milledge and also spoke with former Braves general manager John Schuerholz.

It's the first ever Weekend Predictions from a moving train! Plus, any excuse to salute our greatest living actor - the former Yankee Billy Crystal - I mean, can you blame me?

1. The Mets will win three of four against the Pirates, beating up on a bad team as they should. They'll fail to get the sweep on Monday when their bullpen teams to blow an 8-1 lead. In the wake of last Monday's debacle against the Pirates at Shea, the Bangles will smell a marketing opportunity and suggest a new team song.

2. The Yankees, after a miserable road trip, will at least show some life in sweeping a three-game series over the Royals at Yankee Stadium. However, the weekend won't be completely stress-free. When Mariano Rivera drops his giveaway Yankees luggage tag on Saturday, neither Wilson Betemit nor Robinson Cano will attempt to grab it, infuriating the Yankees' usually unflappable closer.

3. This is very, very bad news for the Yankees. Barring a dramatic change of heart from Gerrit Cole by tongiht's midnight deadline, the Yankees aren't going to sign their top draft pick. After giving every indication to team officials, prior to the draft, that he wanted to be a Yankee, Cole seems to have his heart set on attending UCLA. He hasn't even let the Yankees present him an offer.

Don't blame Scott Boras. The super-agent might drive a hard bargain, but he bargains. His client wound up having no interest in negotiating.

The whole idea behind this Yankees "transition season" was that, even if they missed the playoffs, there would be procurement and development of youngsters. And part of that was the draft. For the Yankees to not bring in Cole...well, that's one less high-ceiling arm in the system. And that's a bad thing.

Damon Oppenheimer, the Yankees' vice president who authorized this selection, has to take a hit on this one. Of course, we would've hit him more if he had chosen lower-flying fruit in a more signable but less talented player. It's not a 100 percent loss. Thanks to the collective bargaining agreement, the Yankees will get pick "28a" in the 2009 draft. That could mean the 29th pick, if the first 27 picks from this year sign. But it sounds like, contrary to what I wrote in my Midweek Insider two days ago, Cole is going to be one of a handful of first-rounders who don't sign.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are still working on signing their sandwich pick, left-hander Jeremy Bleich of Stanford, and are cautiously optimistic they will do so.

4. As Jon Heyman reported last night, the Mariners are retaining both Raul Ibanez and Jarrod Washburn. The Tigers were awarded a waiver claim on Ibanez and the Twins on Washburn, according to my mentor, but in both cases the Mariners couldn't work out trades and elected to pull back the players. That means they can't be traded for the duration of the season.

The Mets put in a claim on Ibanez, a source told me yesterday. They weren't surprised that Ibanez didn't make it out of the American League; as per the waiver rules, teams in a player's own league get first dibs on him. While the Mets are very pleased with the performances of corner outfielders Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis, they recognized that Ibanez has a far greater body of work than that duo and would've represented an upgrade.

5. Here is my column off last night's Mets game. I find Oliver Perez to be fascinating, because of his obvious pitching ability and his inconsistency. He really does look so much more together on the mound, doesn't he? Tufts? baileywalk? Tufts, where would you rank "Throw Momma..." in the Crystal canon?

6. Here is my news story on the MLB owners meetings. For Bud Selig to speak so confidently about instant replay, that means we're definitely getting it, and soon.

7. This isn't baseball, per se, but congratulations to my colleague Neil Best, the Watchdog, for being all over the Mike and the Mad Dog breakup from beginning to end. Neil had the courage to go with his story on June 22, then sit tight while the blogosphere ripped it and the mainstream media ignored it. And now he is fully vindicated. Amazing work.

More to the point for the rest of us, while I discouraged Dennis from touting Mike's nonexistent baseball expertise here, I greatly enjoyed listening to the duo. As a somewhat experienced national traveler and car renter, I've heard enough sports talk shows elsewhere to appreciate that Mike and the Mad Dog were the absolute gold standard for what they did. It won't be the same without them.

8. With the Phillies suffering their fourth straight loss, allowing the Mets to take the NL East penthouse for themselves, here are your updated playoff seedings:

AL
Angels (1) vs. Boston (4)
Tampa Bay (2) vs. White Sox (3)

NL
Cubs (1) vs. Arizona/Dodgers (3)
Mets (2) vs. Milwaukee (4)

9. Ah, yes, vacation for me. Off to a super-secret location for some fun in the sun. It's a little weird in that I'm going from my Manhattan home, which is technically not Newsday territory, into Newsday territory for vacation. But don't tell my bosses (no, not those bosses).

I'll probably check in from time to time, and I'm working Sunday's Yankees game, so I'll definitely be around then. But we'll rev it back up at full pace on Monday, August 25.

Have a wonderful week. And in all sincerity, thanks to those of you who regularly stop by and read, and especially those who take the time to comment.

Jim, as per your instructions, I asked Bud Selig if the designated-hitter issue was still on his radar screen. Here is his response:

"It isn’t. Years ago, we had a lot of discussion. Now there’s no discussion. Both leagues seem entrenched.

"I said at the time (about 10 years ago) I thought it would take a catalytic event to change it. What did that mean? Overall geographic realignment, which was a dream of mine at one time. I have other things to do now.

"(Phillies chairman) Bill Giles said something to me years ago. He said to me, ‘I like it the way it is.’ I said, ‘Tell me why, Bill.’ He said, 'Competitiveness between the leagues is good.’…I think it’s right. Of all the things I want to do, that doesn’t strike me as being (relatively important)."

Bob, Bud said he hasn't yet done anything on the Team Venezuela front but would. Remember, the PA is involved, too. I learned my lesson from the first WBC, when I predicted that Japan wouldn't participate: All of the players will be placated.

Selig wouldn't say quite this, but MLB is very confident that instant replay will be up and running before the end of the regular season. My news story should be up shortly.

Talk about the perfect storm for Yankees haters yesterday:

1. Yankees lose, again, to wrap up a miserable, possibly season-killing, 3-7 road trip.

2. Red Sox win, dropping the Yankees six games back in the American League wild-card race.

3. Rays win, dropping the Yankees nine games back in the AL East.

4. Mets win and Phillies lose, vaulting the Mets back into a first-place tie in the NL East.

5. Oh, and the Phillies lose to Joe Torre's Dodgers, and with the Diamondbacks losing, the Dodgers are now tied with Arizona for the NL West top spot.

Amazing. This doesn't merit a mere "Yeesh," or "Good Lord." As Jerry and George said, when they saw Elaine dance, "Sweet Fancy Moses!"

There is no doubt, none, that back in the day, George Steinbrenner would've done something today. Fired hitting coach Kevin Long. Traded for Gary Sheffield. Maybe even fired Girardi.

But times have changed in Yankees Land, so they will stay the course, and stick to The Plan, hopeful that their farm system continues to churn out talent. Yankees fans won't want to hear this right now, not with a first October at home since 1993 awaiting them, but there's something to be said for a season that further develops a possible future ace in Joba Chamberlain and a possible future everyday centerfielder in Austin Jackson.

Stranger things have happened than a Yankees comeback. But they sound like a defeated team. And while they have a relatively easy week ahead, their overall schedule is still challenging. Look at their September. It's no wonder that Baseball Prospectus, Dennis' least favorite site, has the Yankees as 7.3 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Here are your updated playoff seedings:

AL
Angels (1) vs. Boston (4)
Tampa Bay (2) vs. White Sox (3)

NL
Cubs (1) vs. Arizona/Dodgers (3)
Phillies/Mets (2) vs. Brewers (4)