Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

David Lennon has it covered on his blog. Wally Matthews checked in for today's newspaper.

I agree with Wally. No on Manny.

Because run production wasn't the Mets' problem in 2008. They scored 799 runs, tying the Phillies for second place in the NL. And they're bound to get an improvement from their second-base spot, no matter who plays there.

Because Manny turns 37 next May, and because, as prolific a hitter as he is, there have to be diminishing returns at some point.

Because his defense would be more of an issue at spacious Shea Stadium, and because he could DH for, at most, nine games a year.

UPDATE: Whoops! How many times am I going to make that mistake between now and Opening Day? Scratch the Shea thing, but keep the DH thing.

Because, as Wally wrote, he'll likely revert to high-maintenance Manny as soon as he gets his money.

Because, as Dave L. blogged, it would make sense to bring back Pedro Martinez to help keep Manny in line. Pedro is a legend, but to put him in your starting rotation again? Yeesh.

Because I don't think Manny wants to play in New York, anyway. He disliked Boston's intensity more than he liked it.

And I still say yes on K-Rod.

1. The Red Sox are just a ridiculously well-run organization right now. When you combine their baseball operations with their marketing, I'm not sure there's another team that even belongs in the same conversation of "Best team in the entire industry."

On the field, I'm not the first to opine that they remind you of the 1996-01 Yankees: Tremendous pitching, timely hitting and they make very few mistakes. They're resilient, and they capitalize on others' snafus. Hideki Okajima and Justin Masterson let the Angels tie it up in the eighth? No worries. The Angels botched a suicide squeeze; the Sawx benefited from some luck when Reggie Willits dove for Jason Bay's ninth-inning blooper, allowing the ball to bounce into the rightfield stands for a ground-rule double; and they delivered as Jed Lowrie came through with the game-winning RBI.

Look at the key players last night for the Red Sox: Lowrie, Masterson, starting pitcher Jon Lester, winning pitcher Manny Delcarmen. Homegrown, homegrown, homegrown, homegrown. So were three of the first four hitters in Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein declined to deal players like Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie and Masterson to Minnesota last winter for Johan Santana; seems like he made the right call.

Bay arrived when the Red Sox recognized they couldn't keep Manny Ramirez and worked diligently to ensure that, in return for paying Manny's way out of town, they'd land an impact player.

I think the Yankees are on the right track. But it has to scare the daylights out of them that both the Red Sox and Tampa Bay possess so much talent and operate so intelligently.

2. Speaking of which, the Angels and Cubs are pretty smart organizations in their own right, and one horrendous, poorly-timed week doesn't change that. Notice that no one is calling for the heads of Angels manager Mike Scioscia or GM Tony Reagins, or Cubs skipper Lou Piniella or GM Jim Hendry.

Why? Because you don't blow up an organization based solely on a horrible ending. The playoffs are awesome. And they're quick, and wacky things happen.

Scioscia might just be the best manager in all of baseball. And he's now 5-15 in playoff games since the Angels won the 2002 World Series. Meanwhile, Joe "Can't manage past the first round" Torre just mopped the floor with Sweet Lou.

The Yankees let Torre go (via their lame, one-year extension a year ago) not because of the playoff results, but because a) Torre's relationship with upper management was toxic; b) Torre's game management skills seemed to be deteriorating from bad to just plan awful; and c) there was a general level of fatigue from both sides. The one-and-done performances from 2005 through 2007 expedited Torre's demise. But they didn't cause it.

So please, let's not call for any huge decisions based on three or four games. Not on the Angels or Cubs, and not on K-Rod.

3. Watching the White Sox last night, they reminded me of the Mets: They fell apart toward the finish line, with their best player going down with an injury and Javier Vazquez turning into Jello.

The difference? Whereas the Brewers capitalized on the Mets' misfortune in the past week, the mighty Twins just didn't have enough left to step on the White Sox's throats. After the Twins swept the White Sox in the regular season's penultimate series, Minnesota lost its next two to meek Kansas City while the White Sox dropped two straight to Cleveland. That allowed the White Sox to retain control over its own destiny, and in the play-in game _ which felt like the title bout in Rocky II, with both contenders ready to collapse from exhautstion _ the White Sox did the minimum, offensively, to win.

Now this White Sox team will go down as a tough bunch that staved off elimination and had nothing left for the playoffs. If the Mets had blown just one less late lead, or if the Brewers hadn't awoken _ and then the Mets went down meekly in the first round _ would we view the Mets through the same prism?

4. The squeeze play. Erick Aybar, an accomplished bunter, couldn't pull it off last night. So now you see why it's such a risk, and why the Mets in no way should have tried it with David Wright in this game.

5. No need to revise my playoff predictions, for once. I'm in shock. I feel like Herb Tarlek must have when Jennifer finally accepted his offer to go out with him in this episode of "WKRP in Cincinnati."

So I'll stick with this:

Rays over Red Sox in 6
Phillies over Dodgers in 7

Have a great day.

It doesn't quite generate the same passion as arguing which players belong in the Hall, but I love discussing broadcasters and their Cooperstown worthiness. I think it's great how certain broadcasters become extensions of their teams, with Vin Scully and the Dodgers as the all-time example. And the Ford Frick Award winner always brings smiles on induction day.

(Whereas, as the regulars know, I think it's a joke that writers are affiliated in any way with the Hall).

So here are this year's 10 finalists for the Frick Award:

Billy Berroa (Spanish radio and TV with the Mets, 1987-93, 1997-2007)
Tom Cheek (Expos, 1974-76, and Blue Jays 1977-2004)
Ken Coleman (Indians, 1954-63 and 1975-78, and Red Sox, 1966-74 and 1979-89)
Dizzy Dean (24 years with Cardinals radio and national radio)
Jacques Doucet (34 years as the Expos' French radio voice)
Lanny Frattare (Pirates radio, 1976-2008)
Tony Kubek (30 years, including national telecasts for NBC and time with the Blue Jays and Yankees).
Graham McNamee (13 seasons with Westinghouse and NBC)
Joe Nuxhall (Reds broadcaster, 1967-2004)
Dave Van Horne (33 years with the Expos, 2001-08 with the Marlins)

Here is the whole story.

I'd vote for Kubek, because I enjoyed his work both with national games on NBC and with the Yankees on MSG. I'd also be curious to see the scene if Kubek showed up. As the New York Times' Harvey Araton reported recently, Kubek has had nothing to do with baseball since quitting his announcing gig in 1994. He has never seen Derek Jeter play in a big-league game!

But I admit that I don't really know these other guys very well.

Thoughts, anyone?

Thanks to this site for the photo, and apologies to Watchdog for approaching his jurisdiction.

Just like last year, the Mets' offseason viewpoints and goals have to be heavily influenced by their last game of the season.

If they had made the playoffs, if their pitchers had shut down the Cubs' lineup as the Dodgers did _ not an impossibility, for sure _ then maybe the Mets could get by with these two strategies in 2009:

1) "Closers are made, not born. We'll bring a bunch of interesting arms into camp and figure out who our closer is."

2) "Luis Castillo is a good player who was coming off surgery and didn't report to camp in good shape. We'll get on him this winter and make sure he shows up slimmer, and you'll see why we got him."

But neither of those is feasible now, right? Does any baseball team have an angrier fan base than the Mets? Has any club faced as much animosity as it opens up a highly desired new ballpark?

The Mets, like all teams, have a budget; their payroll was about $140 million this season, highest by far in the National League. That will go up naturally, due to raises coming for John Maine, Jose Reyes and David Wright. Wiith Pedro Martinez ($11 million) and Oliver Perez ($6.5 million) coming off the books, the Mets will probably save some money on their starting rotation; they're likely to acquire one big-name starter out of the group of Perez. A.J. Burnett, Jon Garland and Derek Lowe and then go with Jonathon Niese and perhaps some low-cost veterans.

So that looks all right. Where they're going to have suck it up is bullpen and second base.

Billy Wagner's $10.5 million is gone, without insurance due to Wagner's pre-existing left elbow problems. The Mets insist they're at peace with this, that they have money stored away (a common plot device in movies like this) for such worst-case scenarios. Surely, when they signed Wagner back in the 2005-06 offseason, they had to know they might not get four years of the diminutive lefty.

And that's where they are again. IMHO, they should pay the price for K-Rod. JE and baileywalk have made good points here, about the folly of spending so much on a closer and about the ballooning K-Rod himself. I say that he's still an elite closer, that such closers are rare and worth a certain premium and that the switch over to the National League would buy him some time; shoot, he struck out 77 batters in 68 1/3 innings in the AL this year.

If the Mets, after seeing their horrendous bullpen sink their 2008 season, have to essentially pay $25 million for a closer in 2009, combining Rodriguez's and Wagner's salaries...it's better than paying $12 million for a closer and experiencing a third straight collapse, isn't it?

The same goes for second base. They're just going to have to pay for two. Castillo has $18 million coming to him over the next three years. Will any team take on so much as half of that in a trade? Hard to see, after Castillo's absolutely brutal 2008. And yet, the Mets can't take him back. They just can't. Not after Jerry Manuel benched Castillo for Damion Easley, Argenis Reyes and Ramon Martinez. I think if the season had lasted another week, Jerry was going to call Willie Randolph and ask him if he could still turn the double play.

So the Mets are going to pay a very high percentage of that $18 million in order to ship out Castillo, and see if they can at least get a second-tier prospect in return.

Ideally, this "Dan Murphy playing second base in the Arizona Fall League" experiment would work, and with Murphy making the near-minimum for the next three years, the Mets wouldn't feel like they were paying for two second basemen. But that's overly optimistic, isn't it? Murphy looks like a promising hitter who will forever be in search of a defensive position.

Meanwhile, free agent Orlando Hudson would bring not only a solid, all-around game, but a bright personality that could help the Mets. Hudson once said, jokingly (bottom of this story), that Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi dressed "like a pimp." At least, I think he was joking. The Mets could use a guy with that kind of sense of humor, not to mention that kind of bat and that kind of glove.

If two collapses mean two eight-figured closers and two second basemen on the books, then so be it. K-Rod and Hudson would both be good baseball moves, and most of all, the Mets need an improved baseball team.

Here is my Sunday Insider, in which Padres GM Kevin Towers confirms that he will indeed shop Jake Peavy this winter. As we've noted here, it would take a massive package to get Peavy - probably too large a package for the Mets, given their thin farm system. And it's not clear whether Peavy, who was born and lives in Alabama, would waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees.

This column also includes my annual mention of the Curse of the Rings. After they won the 2000 World Series, the Yankees declined to give rings to between 20 and 25 people in the organization, people who received rings from the previous titles. Those people privately declared that the Yankees would not win another World Series until they were properly compensated.

This is all in good fun, of course, but I write it because, IMHO, it reflects a mean-spiritedness in the Yankees organization. The Yankees expended a lot of effort and money to dig underground to retrieve that David Ortiz jersey buried underneath their new ballpark. It would be a walk in the park, comparatively speaking, to purchase another 25 or so 2000 rings.

Here is the Seventh-Inning Stretch.

Here is my column off of the Mets' telephone news conference to officially announce Jerry Manuel's two-year deal. Manuel has to somehow use his communication skills to turn the last two collapses into a positive. Willie Randolph couldn't pull that off, and that's why Manuel is the manager now.

Amazing, isn't it, that the Cubs went down so meekly?

Have a great day. I'm off to the Giants game.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

Here is my column on Jerry Manuel and the Mets coming to an agreement on making Manuel the team's full-time manager.

This first round of the playoffs could be over quick, eh?

Have a great day.

Thanks to this site for the photo.

So this started back in the days when Roger Clemens was still a public figure, and there still seemed a chance that he would pitch in the major leagues again. In this blog entry, I included two key passages:

1) I'd bet you a box of donuts that, if Clemens were to take the mound at Minute Maid Park, he'd receive a standing ovation.

2) Clemens would surely rather pitch than sit around the house, and the Astros are going to stink, no matter what.

It was a commenter named Jason H. who tied the two thoughts together, writing, "I don't see how this team is 'going to stink.' In fact, I will bet you that same box of donuts that the 'Stros make it to the playoffs by winning the NL Central. ESPECIALLY if they sign Roger."

Sounded like a fun idea, and eventually, we had an agreement, as detailed in #3 of this blog entry. If the Astros made the playoffs - I lowered the bar from "winning the NL Central" - then I would pay a box of Dunkin' Donuts to Jason, Andrew, Tim and Bill V. If the 'Stros fell short, then this quartet would owe me the same - but, since I'm trying to lose weight in '08, we would earmark those donut dollars toward a worthy cause on Long Island.

I won the bet, but the Astros hardly stunk. Who knows? If not for Hurricane Ike moving two home games to Milwaukee, perhaps Houston would've continued its incredible, late-season run.

But in light of the real-world events that hit Houston, I proposed to my four adversaries that they pay $15 (it was Bill V.'s suggested price for a box of Dunkin's - I have no idea whether that's accurate) each to a Hurricane Ike foundation. Here is one about which I know. Bill, Andrew and Jason are all on board; I never heard back from Tim.

In the meantime, I will match the trio's $45 with a donation of my own to Newsday charities, which helps Long Island children and families. As part of our deal at Newsday, McCormick will match me with 50 cents on the dollar, so that increases my donation to $67.50.

The irony is that, if Clemens had come back and pitched for the Astros at the level he pitched for the Yankees last year - decent, and there would've been better results back in the National League - then the 'Stros might have made the playoffs, and I'd be on my way to my local Dunkin' right now. And it was Clemens' status that prompted the initial blog entry.

Anyway, thanks to all who participated. It's fun to turn baseball debates into good deeds.