Conor McGregor won’t be adding a second, concurrent championship to his resume in March, but the top draw in MMA will still be in action.
The featherweight champion’s UFC 196 headliner against lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos fell apart last week when a broken foot forced dos Anjos to withdraw. Instead, McGregor accepted a fight against late replacement Nate Diaz. Although Diaz is normally a lightweight, the bout on March 5 will be contested at welterweight — that way, neither fighter will need to cut much weight.
The stakes are lower than the original booking, but on paper McGregor vs. Diaz is one of the most fun fights the UFC can put on right now. Two action fighters known for trash talk don’t square off against each other very often, especially not fighters of this caliber.
At least UFC 196 will still have gold on the line as new women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm makes her first title defense since dethroning Ronda Rousey in November.
Read on for the other fights that matter at UFC 196, plus those in the UFC’s other March event later in the month. All rankings in parentheses come from my personal rankings, which are available to view in full at www.ufc.com/rankings.
March 5: UFC 196 (Las Vegas)
- Welterweight: Conor McGregor (C FTW, 5 pound-for-pound) vs. Nate Diaz (4 LW)
- Women’s bantamweight title: Holly Holm (C, 15 P4P) vs. Miesha Tate (4)
- Women’s bantamweight: Amanda Nunes (3) vs. Valentina Schevchenko (9)
- Light heavyweight: Tom Lawlor (12) vs. Corey Anderson (14)
- Featherweight: Chas Skelly (12) vs. Darren Elkins
- Light heavyweight: Gian Villante (13) vs. Ilir Latifi
- Lightweight: Jim Miller (14) vs. Diego Sanchez
This event is stacked to the brim with top talent and important matchups on both the pay-per-view portion of UFC 196 and the prelims.
Although McGregor and Diaz will duke it out at 170 pounds, this fight should give a window into where the 145-pound champ fits in the lightweight pecking order. He’s untested against the 155-pound elites, and this is a favorable litmus test for the Irishman. Diaz isn’t always in the supreme shape brother Nick often is in, and it’s unknown how well-conditioned he’ll be. He’s a tailor-made, come-forward striker on whom McGregor should be able to land clean and score a TKO stoppage in what should be one of the more entertaining bouts of the year.
Holm has a tough task in defeating Tate, who is more well-rounded than Rousey despite the lack of a clear trump card in her arsenal. Tate’s goal should be to outgrapple the former boxing champ, but Holm likely will have enough success standing to earn a decision in a back-and-forth bout.
Depending on when Rousey returns to cash in her rematch, Nunes and Schevchenko may be duking it out for the next title shot. Nunes has looked excellent in the octagon and has enough weapons in her arsenal to win at least two rounds.
A pair of light heavyweight bouts could help produce at least one fighter who is ready to make the leap into contention. Anderson and Villante, both fighters with ties to the New York area, are the smart bets, but these matchups realistically could go either way.
Skelly hasn’t broken into the aggregate UFC rankings yet, but a win over the veteran Elkins should change that. His strong submission game matches up well against the vet, so bank on a finish.
Miller vs. Sanchez is a Fight of the Night candidate, one that favors Miller if he wins the wrestling battle. If not, Sanchez has a good chance of throwing enough punches to look busy and steal rounds. The pick, however, is Miller.
March 20: UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Mir (Brisbane, Australia)
- Heavyweight: Mark Hunt (9) vs. Frank Mir (10)
- Welterweight: Neil Magny (8) vs. Hector Lombard
- Flyweight: Justin Scoggins (13) vs. Ben Nguyen (14)
Women’s bantamweight: Rin Nakai (13) vs. Leslie Smith (14)
A considerable step down from UFC 196 in depth and quality, but there’s enough to offer from Down Under.
The main event is a classic matchup of striker (Hunt) vs. grappler (Mir). Although Mir is no slouch on his feet, he’s playing with fire if he thinks his fading chin can hold up to Hunt’s power. That’s probably the way it goes, though. Hunt by brutal KO.
Magny’s surprising rise to bona fide upper-class welterweight continues against Lombard, a high-level welterweight returning from a lengthy suspension. Lombard’s fight-changing power makes him a safer bet, but his fight IQ can be questionable. Don’t count out Magny entirely.
A battle of flyweight up-and-comers should be fun. Scoggins has the better pedigree in terms of big wins, and he’s the wise bet to win a decision against Nguyen.
Not a major bout, but Nakai vs. Smith will help shape the bottom of the women’s 135-pound rankings. Smith is a tough out, and Nakai didn’t impress against Tate in her only UFC outing. Favor Smith by decision, but this is a bit of a toss-up.
Outside the octagon …
March 4: Bellator 151 (Thackerville, Oklahoma)
- Bantamweight: Joe Warren vs. Darrion Caldwell
Here’s a highlight from Bellator’s impressive 135-pound division. Warren talks a good game, but unbeaten prospect Caldwell will be a handful for the former promotional champion. Still, look for wrestling to carry Warren to victory in the main event.
March 11: Invicta FC 16 (Las Vegas)
- Women’s atomweight title: Ayaka Hamasaki (C) vs. Amber Brown
- Women’s flyweight interim title: Vanessa Porto vs. Jennifer Maia
Two title fights in non-UFC women’s divisions are worth any hard-core fan’s time.
Hamasaki holds wins over some of the best fighters of the previous generation of women’s fighters. While Brown’s career is off to a good start, she likely isn’t at Hamasaki’s level just yet.
At 125 pounds, Porto is the top-ranked fighter after champion Barb Honchak, who hasn’t competed since November 2014. Maia lost the first time these two met in 2011, and it’s fair to count on Porto to win again and claim the interim title.
March 12: World Series of Fighting 29 (Greeley, Colorado)
- Lightweight title: Justin Gaethje (C) vs. Brian Foster
Gaethje’s perfect run to the start of his career is starting to make him look like a big fish in a small pond. Foster is a solid veteran with a winning record in the UFC, but this is Gaethje’s fight to lose.
