Todd Harrison: Investors, take a look at both sides of Europe
While everyone else was obsessed about whether the force-fed policy measures would pass muster throughout the latest stages of the European financial crisis, we at Minyanville asked the question: What if they do?
The uniform view that the EU, ECB, IMF, LTRO, EFSF, ESM, EIB and other alphabet-soup institutions would somehow solve a debt crisis that took decades to build is worthy of a nose-scrunch. The predictable outcome - largely absent from the ongoing conversation - will be strict austerity measures and higher taxation. And neither is pro-growth.
In December, the smartest guys in the room urged investors to get out of the market, yet here we are a few months later and much higher, and the chorus is singing a much different tune. We were lucky enough to discuss the technical pattern that worked "8% to 10% higher" at the time - and now that we're there, the crowd is rife with blind ambition.
Minyanville pointed out the slowing global growth in May 2008, when crude oil was bubbling north of $130 a barrel. We offered the variant view that $50 crude would be more problematic than $150. Indeed, sometimes a slow, methodical burn can be more debilitating than a swift kick to the chops.
I don't profess to know if China announcing its lowest economic growth target since 2004 is enough of a sea change to reverse numerous years of financial engineering. But it does plant a seed - one that has seemingly been abandoned for the euphoria of higher prices and averted crises.
Todd Harrison is the author of "The Other Side of Wall Street" and the founder and CEO of Minyanville, an Emmy Award-winning financial media platform. Read him daily at www.minyanville.com.