NYC Mayor’s Race: Where things stand between Mamdani, Cuomo and Sliwa with less than 2 weeks remaining in campaign

New York City’s 2025 mayoral election is less than two weeks away now — with early voting starting this Saturday, Oct. 25. As a fall chill settles over the five boroughs, not much has changed in the polls — though the heat is turning up on one candidate to shake the race up in a big way.

Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, holds a strong lead in all major polls, topping independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa consistently by double digits.

Cuomo, who served 2 1/2 terms as governor before resigning amid allegations of sexual harassment that he has always denied, is running a revamped independent campaign after suffering a surprise blowout loss to Mamdani in the June Democratic primary.

The former governor, polling second to Mamdani, is far behind in most general election polls and struggling to capitalize further after a slight bump in polling following Mayor Eric Adams’ departure from the race in September.

As his campaign stagnates, Cuomo is sticking to his strategy of attacking Mamdani, arguing that he is the only candidate with the management and political experience required to be mayor.

But, he’s added a new strategy in his final push — publicly pleading with Sliwa to drop his bid.

Cuomo courts Republicans, pushing Sliwa to get out

Since a heated mayoral debate on Thursday, Cuomo has repeated the line, “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is really a vote for Zohran Mamdani,” on various radio shows and TV appearances, acknowledging that “the math is tricky” for a Cuomo victory unless Sliwa drops out.

Though he has repeatedly emphasized that he is a “lifelong Democrat,” Cuomo has taken to courting Republican voters who, more than they want to see a Republican win, hope to see Mamdani lose. Republicans make up only 11% of the New York City electorate, according to the Campaign Finance Board. Almost two-thirds of registered voters in the five boroughs are Democrats.

When reached for comment, Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi pointed amNewYork to Cuomo’s Tuesday media appearances, in which he has continued to plead with the Republican nominee to drop his bid and back Cuomo’s campaign.

On a morning WABC 77 radio segment with host Sid Rosenberg, Cuomo indicated that he would be “interested in” the prospect of offering Sliwa a position in his potential administration if the Republican dropped out.

“I don’t have horns,” Cuomo joked on the show. “I need your voters to vote for me.”

Still, the math is indeed “tricky” for Cuomo.

The 13 most recent polls conducted since mid-August all show Mamdani winning by at least 11 percentage points, with some projecting a win by 20 points or more. The Assembly member is consistently polling between 40% and 50%, while Cuomo is seeing predictions between 24% and 33% and Sliwa is scoring in the teens.

A Gotham poll sponsored by the AARP released Monday shows Mamdani and Cuomo in a close race in a hypothetical one-on-one, with Mamdani topping Cuomo by 4% in a poll with a 4% margin of error.

However, even if Sliwa opts to drop his bid, he will remain on the ballot — as will Adams.

Sliwa has reiterated that he has no intention of dropping out of the election. The founder of the vigilante group Guardian Angels and an animal rights activist, Sliwa ran unopposed in the Republican primary and has shown no public interest in ceding the campaign to help Cuomo.

“I suggest Andrew Cuomo come off his high horse,” Sliwa told reporters Monday morning when asked about the calls from Cuomo to drop out. “If he wants to win this election, go out and campaign for your voters.”

Spokespeople for Sliwa and Mamdani did not respond to requests for comment in time for publication.

Expert sees election ‘glide’ for Mamdani

Democratic strategist Trip Yang said Mamdani “looks to have a glide path to City Hall right now.”

Indeed, Mamdani is preparing for leadership. The Assembly member has begun planning more seriously for the mayoralty, though he said in an interview with amNewYork last week that he remains focused on winning the campaign itself before making too many plans for governing. In the interview, he said his campaign has enlisted a whopping 80,000 volunteers who are knocking over 100,000 doors each week.

The 34-year-old democratic socialist began his primary campaign in the fall of 2024 with almost no name recognition outside his Queens district, quickly amassed an unprecedented ground game, and got his affordability-centered message out with a fresh social strategy aimed at a young audience.

As for the pressure on Sliwa, some of which has come from his own party, Yang noted that Sliwa has steady support from most Republican power brokers in New York City and is a difficult character to push out of a race.

“Curtis Sliwa has been shot before; I think he can weather the scrutiny and the pressure from some Republican leaders to drop out and endorse Cuomo,” Yang said, referring to Sliwa’s attempted murder in 1992, allegedly by the Gambino crime family. “It’s going to take a miracle for Andrew Cuomo to pull this race off or even make it remotely competitive while Sliwa is still out there.”

Regarding Cuomo’s adopted strategy of publicly pressuring Sliwa to drop his bid, Yang said Cuomo may be wasting his time.

“Any minute that Cuomo is not focused on criticizing Mamdani with two weeks to go hurts Andrew Cuomo,” Yang said.

If polls are to be believed, it appears unlikely that Cuomo will be able to pull out a win on Election Day if the makeup of the race stays the same between now and Nov. 4.

“Even in a one-on-one,” Yang said, “it is very structurally hard for someone unpopular to beat someone more popular.”