Week 14 NFL best bets: Top picks and game totals

It’s Week 14 of the NFL season and the action is just heating up. With a bunch of teams on bye, we have a shorter slate of NFL action, but there are still some bets that we like.

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Spreads

New York Jets (+10) over Buffalo Bills

We all know by now that the Jets won the first meeting between these two teams and have looked like a much better offensive team with Mike White under center. However, I think this game simply comes down to the defenses. The Jets have a good, young defense, and the Bills also have a strong defense despite the loss of Von Miller for the season.

With their playoff hopes on the line, I think the Jets come out playing hard in this game, and I think it will be a close defensive struggle. Plus, now that the line moved up to +10, you get that extra half-point to potentially push which makes this bet even more enticing.

BET AVAILABLE AT: FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK (-110)

Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) over Miami Dolphins

This line started with the Dolphins getting 5.5 points. They are now favored by 3.5 points. That’s a massive nine-point swing and one that I can’t get behind. Yes, the Dolphins have looked good this season, but prior to their loss to the 49ers, they had played the Texans, Browns, Bears, Lions, and Steelers. That’s not exactly a murder’s row of opponents.

The Dolphins will now go on the road in a game the Chargers really need to win for their playoff hopes. Add to that the fact that Tua Tagovailoa is just 6-8-1 against the spread on the road in his career, and the Chargers will get back Mike Williams after weeks of being out with an ankle injury, and I think the Chargers can at least keep this to within a field goal.

BET AVAILABLE AT: BETMGM SPORTSBOOK (-115)

Detroit Lions (-1.5) over the Minnesota Vikings

This is a pick from my buddy “Thunder” Dan Palyo, who writes a substack of NFL and NBA bets. I highly encourage you to check that out because he’s a really smart dude, but a bit of his logic behind this bet was:

“Detroit looked damn good last week in dismantling the Jags and they feel like a team that is continuing to improve each week under Dan Campbell. Yes, they still have issues on defense and Minnesota is going to score some points here, but this offense is hitting its stride as Jared Goff is playing well and has a full complement of weapons in his employ.

Everyone who follows football (other than maybe some delusional Vikings fans) knows that Minnesota is probably the most overrated team at 10-2 team since the Steelers are years back.

The Lions are 5-2 ATS at home this year with an awesome +6.6-point differential.”

So I’m gonna trust my buddy Dan here.

BET AVAILABLE AT: FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK (-114)

Game Totals

Denver/Kansas City (UNDER 44.5)

The under is 11-1 in Denver games this year. 11-1! That’s obviously because this Broncos offense is the worst in the NFL. I expect them to be terrible again, especially with Courtland Sutton battling a hamstring injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so he seems unlikely to play this weekend. I just don’t see how Denver scores more than 10 points.

However, the Broncos’ defense has some fight, and I expect the Chiefs to get up to an early lead and then allow their running game to close it out, so, to me, that all sounds like a recipe for the under to hit again.

BET AVAILABLE AT: DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK (-105)

Cleveland/ Cincinnati (OVER 46.5)

If you’re in the state of Ohio, make sure to take advantage of the pre-registration deals before betting goes live in the New Year. You want to lock in the best offers possible now.

The Bengals are fully healthy with Ja’Marr Chase returning last week and Joe Mixon back this week. That’s perfect timing against a bad Browns defense. The Browns are 28th in the NFL opponents’ scoring rate, 20th in yards allowed per completed pass, and 26th in yards allowed per carry, so you can beat them through the air or on the ground.

The Bengals have also won four straight games and are starting to get cooking at the right time, and I think he can take advantage of this Browns’ defense. There is a reason that Cleveland games have hit the over more than half the time this year. One of only eight teams in the NFL who that is true for.

However, Deshaun Watson also has another week under center for the Browns, and they get to face a Bengals defense that also hasn’t been that good. The Bengals are 23rd in the NFL opponents’ scoring rate, 27th in yards allowed per completion, and 15th in yards per carry. If Watson is more in rhythm this week, this Browns offense can put up 20+ points of their own here.