Polling agencies project reelection for French leader Macron

Emmanuel Macron
French President and centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron shakes hands with well-wishers as he heads to the polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, Sunday, April 24, 2022. France began voting in a presidential runoff election Sunday with repercussions for Europe’s future, with centrist incumbent Emmanuel Macron the front-runner but fighting a tough challenge from far-right contender Marine Le Pen. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

Polling agencies projected that French President Emmanuel Macron comfortably won reelection Sunday in the presidential runoff, offering French voters and the European Union the reassurance of leadership stability in the bloc’s only nuclear-armed power as the continent grapples with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A second five-year term for Macron, if confirmed by official results later Sunday, would spare France and its allies in Europe and beyond the seismic upheaval of a shift of power in wartime. Macron’s rival, far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, quickly conceded Sunday night.

Her campaign had pledged to dilute French ties with the 27-nation EU, the NATO military alliance and Germany would, had she won, have shaken Europe’s security architecture as the continent deals with its worst conflict since World War II. Le Pen also spoke out against sanctions on Russian energy supplies and faced scrutiny during the election campaign over her previous friendliness with the Kremlin.

Polling agencies’ projections released as the last voting stations closed said Macron was on course to beat Le Pen by a double-digit margin. Five years ago, Macron won a sweeping victory to become France’s youngest president at 39. The margin is expected to be way smaller this time: Polling agencies Opinionway, Harris and Ifop projected that the 44-year-old pro-European centrist projected to win at least 57% of the vote.

Le Pen was projected to win between 41.5% and 43% support — a still unprecedented result for the 53-year-old on her third attempt to win the French presidency.

Early official results are expected later Sunday night.

If the projections hold, Macron would become only the third president since the 1958 founding of modern France to win twice at the ballot box, and the first in 20 years, since incumbent Jacques Chirac trounced Le Pen’s father in 2002.

Le Pen’s score this time rewarded her year-long efforts to make her far-right politics more palatable to voters. Campaigning hard on cost-of-living issues, she made deep inroads among blue-collar voters, in disaffected rural communities and former industrial centers.

Breaking through the threshold of 40% or more of the vote is unprecedented for the French far-right. Le Pen was beaten 66% to 34% by Macron in 2017. And her father got less than 20% against Chirac.

Several hundred Macon supporters gathered in front of the Eiffel Tower, singing the national anthem and waving French and European flags as television stations broadcast the initial projections of his win.

Still. the projected drop in support for Macron compared to five years ago points to what is expected to be a tough battle for the president to rally people behind him in his second term.

Many French voters found the 2022 rematch less compelling than in 2017, when Macron was an unknown factor, having never previously held elected office.

Leftist voters — unable to identify with either the centrist president or Le Pen’s fiercely nationalist platform — often agonized with the choices Sunday. Some trooped reluctantly to polling stations solely to stop Le Pen, casting joyless votes for Macron.

“It was the least worst choice,” said Stephanie David, a transport logistics worker who backed a communist candidate in round one.

It was an impossible choice for retiree Jean-Pierre Roux. Having also voted communist in round one, he dropped an empty envelope into the ballot box on Sunday, repelled both by Le Pen’s politics and what he saw as Macron’s arrogance.

“I am not against his ideas but I cannot stand the person,” Roux said.

Macron went into the vote with a sizable lead in polls but unable to be sure of victory from a fractured, anxious and tired electorate. The war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic battered Macron’s first term, as did months of violent protests against his economic policies. The upheavals created fertile ground for Le Pen.

Marian Arbre, voting in Paris, cast his ballot for Macron “to avoid a government that finds itself with fascists, racists.”

“There’s a real risk,” the 29-year-old fretted.

With the EU’s only seat on the U.N. Security Council and only nuclear arsenal, the outcome in France was being watched across the 27-nation bloc as it grapples with the fallout of the Ukraine war.

France has played a leading role in international efforts to punish Russia with sanctions and is supplying weapons systems to Ukraine. Le Pen’s ties to Russia became an issue during the campaign, raising questions as to how she would deal with the Kremlin if elected.

Earlier in the day, Le Pen voted in the northern town of Henin-Beaumont, in France’s struggling former industrial heartland, while Macron voted in the resort town of Le Touquet on the English Channel.

Appealing to working-class voters struggling with surging prices, Le Pen has vowed that bringing down the cost of living would be her priority if elected. She argued that Macron’s presidency left the country deeply divided, pointing to the yellow vest protest movement that rocked his government before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Macron sought to appeal to voters of immigrant heritage and religious minorities, especially because of Le Pen’s proposed policies targeting Muslims and putting French citizens first in line for jobs and benefits.

Macron also touted his environmental and climate accomplishments to trawl for young voters who backed left-wing candidates in round one but were often unhappy about the runoff match-up. Macron said his next prime minister would be put in charge of environmental planning as France seeks to become carbon neutral by 2050.