NYC Mayor’s Race: New poll finds Mamdani’s support for Palestinian rights and criticism of Israel helped him win primary

A new Data for Progress poll published Tuesday shows that primary voters for Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani (D-Queens) were mostly excited by the democratic socialist’s plans to lower costs and tax the rich and his support for Palestinian rights.

The poll, published jointly by Data for Progress and the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project, surveyed Mamdani primary voters on what drove them to support the 33-year-old candidate. The candidate delivered former Gov. Andrew Cuomo a crushing defeat against the odds that most polls had predicted.

Tuesday’s poll shows that Mamdani’s “support for Palestinian rights” was important to 96% of his voters — for 83% of his voters, it swayed their votes. His “willingness to criticize the Israeli government” was important to 88% of his primary voters, and 55% said it swayed their votes, according to the poll.

Mamdani has taken heat from pro-Israel Democrats, Republicans, and leaders in New York’s Jewish community for his criticisms of the Israeli government and stance on pro-Palestinian protests amid Israel’s war in Gaza.

The Assembly member had long declined to outright condemn the term “globalize the intifada,” which some see as a call to violence against Jewish people, but clarified his stance on the term earlier this month. Now, he discourages protesters from using the slogan, which others see as a call for Palestinian liberation.

Mamdani has routinely criticized Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and labeled the ongoing war a “genocide.” He has also said that, as mayor, the city would arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visited, citing the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu that cites alleged war crimes.

Though Mamdani has faced heavy-handed criticism from some establishment Democrats for his comments on Israel and sympathy for pro-Palestinian protesters, Tuesday’s poll shows that the assembly member’s views on the issue helped him in the primary. As Israel has ramped up its military actions in Gaza, where the Israel Defense Forces is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and the threat of famine encroaches, Americans have grown in their disapproval of the war.

According to a Gallup News poll published Tuesday, disapproval of the war has reached a new high of 60% in the United States. Young Americans especially disapprove of Netanyahu and the war. In the Democratic mayoral primary, New Yorkers under 40 provided the surge in voter turnout that helped propel Mamdani to victory.

Mamdani’s primary opponent, Cuomo, is a staunch supporter of Israel and is now running as an independent candidate in the general election. Mayor Eric Adams, who is running for reelection as an independent, is also supportive of Israel and is running on the “EndAntisemitism” party line.

According to the poll, Mamdani’s plans to lower costs for New Yorkers and tax the rich swayed voters the most. Both campaign promises mattered to 100% of Mamdani voters surveyed in Data for Progress’ poll, with 96% reporting that his economic agenda swayed their vote. Mamdani has promised that, if elected mayor, he will freeze the rent on rent-stabilized apartments, build more housing, make buses free, and hike taxes on New York’s richest.

Of those surveyed, 44% ranked Mamdani as their top choice in the primary, and 36% ranked Cuomo — the same level of support each candidate received in the first round of ranked-choice voting. The poll found that 68% of respondents had a favorable view of Mamdani overall, while Cuomo’s favorability rating is 44%. For Adams, only 11% of respondents said they viewed the mayor favorably.

The poll focused on issues related to Israel, the war in Gaza, and Middle East relations, which are the primary topics studied by MEIU. It asked respondents about their views toward the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which received an overall net favorability rating of -35 — 15% have a favorable view, 50% have an unfavorable view, and 34% of those asked had not heard enough about AIPAC to make a judgment.

When asked about their views on Netanyahu, just 10% of respondents to the poll said they viewed Netanyahu favorably. Seventy-four percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view, and 15% said they had not heard enough about the prime minister. Nationally, 9% of Democrats view Netanyahu favorably, according to the Tuesday Gallup poll.

Of those surveyed in the Data for Progress poll, 62% said they thought the U.S. government’s support for Israel is “too much,” 18% said the government’s support is “the right amount,” 6% said the support is “too little,” and 14% said they do not know enough to say. Regarding whether those surveyed sympathize more with Palestinians or with Israelis, 66% of those surveyed said they sympathize more with Palestinians, 16% said they sympathize more with Israelis, and 17% said they do not know.

Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed said they believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian people in Gaza. In contrast, 13% said they do not think Israel is committing genocide and 9% said they do not know. In regard to the ICC’s arrest warrant against Netanyahu, 63% of respondents said they think the next mayor of NYC should enforce the warrant, 20% think the next mayor should not enforce the warrant, and 16% do not know.