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Best Bets and Prop Picks for Red Sox vs. Yankees

yankees red sox prop picks

The Boston Red Sox travel to the Bronx to face the New York Yankees tonight. The game marks the Major League Baseball’s return from the All-Star Break and is the lone game on today’s card.

The Red Sox will look to extend their 1 1/2 game lead in the American League East with a win, while the Yankees will look to cut into their 4 1/2 game deficit behind the second and final Wild Card spot. A win for New York tonight would be the club’s first over Boston this season, having dropped each of the first six meetings.

We have identified three prop bet wagering options in tonight’s AL East clash that should provide strong value to bettors. We share those with you now, accompanied by our rationale for each selection.

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Will Both Teams Score 3 or More Runs? – Yes (BetMGM -150)

The Yankees are one of the worst run-producing teams in the American League and are the obvious main concern here. However, they are at home where they have scored three or more runs in nine straight games, averaging 5.9 runs per game in that stretch.

They will face Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA over his last 13 starts. The Yankees have scored three or more runs against Boston in nine of Rodriguez’s last 10 starts.

Boston is less likely to be a concern, having scored the third most runs in the entire league this season. The Red Sox typically give Rodriguez good run support, scoring 3+ runs in each of his last seven starts, a span during which they scored seven or more runs five times. In the left-hander’s two starts against New York this season, Boston has bolstered him with an average of eight runs per game.

Boston has scored three or more runs in 65 of its 89 games thus far (73.0%) and 15 of its last 18 road contests (83.3%). Moreover, they have scored four or more runs in seven straight head-to-head meetings with the Yankees, including all six meetings this season, averaging a robust 6.6 runs per game in those seven wins.

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Boston Red Sox to Score Over 6.5 Runs (BetMGM +220)

This prop has some sneaky value, as the Red Sox have already scored seven or more runs 26 times in 89 games this season (29.2%). They enter tonight’s contest off of consecutive losses for the 16th time in 2021. They are a staggering 12-3 in that role, having topped 6.5 runs in eight of those 15 games (53.3%).

Boston has scored seven or more runs in five of Eduardo Rodriguez’s last seven starts, as well as both of his starts against the Yankees this season.

The Yankees come into tonight’s game having lost their final game before the break, 8-7. They are just 4-13 this season after allowing seven or more runs. They allowed seven and eight runs, respectively, in the two games this year after scoring seven or more runs in a loss. They have also allowed seven or more runs in each of the last three games after scoring and allowing six or more runs previously.

Boston Red Sox To Win By 4 Runs Or More (DraftKings +320)

If we hit our mark on Boston putting up a boatload of runs, the Yankees could struggle to keep pace. They have lost seven straight to the Red Sox, topping three runs just once in those games.

The Yankees lost by seven and five runs, respectively, in their last two games following an outing in which they both scored and allowed six or more runs.

They have also lost all four of the games in that role this season by multiple runs. Furthermore, those two games also happen to be the only two times this season where the Yankees played a game after scoring seven or more runs in a loss, like they will be doing tonight.

As mentioned, the Yankees are 4-13 after allowing seven or more runs prior. The Red Sox are 12-3 after consecutive losses. Eight of those 12 Boston wins came by four or more runs.

Boston has had 24 of its 55 wins in 2021 come by four or more runs (43.6%), while New York lost by four or more in 16 of their 43 defeats this season (37.2%). 

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