With only about a month until NFL training camps are underway, bets are coming fast and furious on teams’ win totals for the 2022 season. Today, we’ll look at the betting odds for the AFC East teams to see if we can find any profitable betting angles before the NFL season kicks into high gear.
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Last year, the division was really a two-team race between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. While the Miami Dolphins, did make a run at the end of the season, it wasn’t enough to overcome the early success of the Northeast teams. The Bills road a 5-1 record in the division and an 11-6 record to their second straight division title.
The New York Jets finished 4-13 for their second straight last-place finish in the AFC East.
However, there is some optimism surrounding New York this season, so let’s see where the AFC East odds stack up as of Tuesday, June 21st:
2022 AFC East Division Winner
OK, so the optimism for the Jets doesn’t extend this far. The Bills are the current betting favorite for the Super Bowl, so it doesn’t come as a surprise that they would be this heavily favored to win the AFC East. As a result, it seems a bit like a race for second.
While the Patriots did finish second last year, it’s hard to count out a Dolphins team that added Tyreek Hill in the offseason. Both teams have questions about just how much growth we can expect from their young quarterbacks, but I would say the way the Dolphins closed last season, paired with the additions of Hill, Chase Edmonds, and Cedrick Wilson to go with a young and improving defense make them the real sleeper in the division.
Jets are an afterthought when it comes to division winner odds, but they have their own young quarterback who could experience growth and solid offseason moves, like the addition of safety D.J. Reed and drafting of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
So, perhaps we can then find an advantage to bet the Jets win total.
2022 AFC East Win Total Over/Unders
All AFC East odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, click here for up-to-date odds
- Buffalo Bills 11.5 (Last Season: 11) (-140 over/ +120 under)
- Miami Dolphins 9.0 (Last Season: 9) (+105 over/ -125 under)
- New England Patriots 8.5 (Last Season: 10) (-115 over/ -105 under)
- New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season: 4) (-165 over/ +135 under)
The odds for the Jets over started at just -125, but the betting public has been so heavy on that action that it has now gone to -165. Only the Atlanta Falcons have a win total over/under so low, so this is a really low over/under that seems might be low-hanging fruit from a betting perspective.
New York did a tremendous job in the draft and have clearly improved their team; however, they also have the NFL’s 27th-ranked schedule based on projected win totals. They will face the Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos, Patriots, and Bills before their Week 10 bye. That’s a brutal schedule that could see them win just two or three games.
As a result, it may be smart to wait on the win total odds to come down a bit before betting on the Jets to surpass 5.5 wins.
Betting the Patriots to go under 8.5 wins could be another interesting route. They won 10 games last year but really over-performed and had a string of games where they faced teams who were missing their best player: Browns without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Falcons without Calvin Ridley and Cordarrelle Patterson, Titans without Derrick Henry, then the Bills in a 30+ degree wind blizzard that saw them throw just three passes.
It all feels like a bit of a flukey season for the Patriots that now find themselves in an improved division and facing the NFL’s 25th-hardest schedule.
For more Jets coverage like this AFC East betting guide, visit amNY Sports
