2022 NBA Playoffs: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Preview, Odds, and Pick

Andrew Wiggins attacks the basket in the 2022 NBA Playoffs
Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins (22) attempts a layup as Dallas Mavericks forward Dorian Finney-Smith (10) and guard Luka Doncic (77) defend during the second half of Game 4 of the NBA basketball playoffs Western Conference finals, Tuesday, May 24, 2022, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

After falling short in Game 4, the Warriors will, once again, try and wrap up the 2022 NBA Playoffs Western Conference finals with a win tonight in Game 5. After building a massive early lead in Game 4, the Mavericks held on to win 119-109 but can they do it again in California?


How to Watch:

  • DATE: Thursday, May 26th
  • TIME: 9 P.M. ET


Playoff Tale of the Tape:

Golden State STAT Dallas
114.1 (1st) Points Per Game 106.1 (9th)
109 (8th) Points Allowed Per Game 104.8 (6th)
37.8% (4th) 3PT Shooting % 37.9% (3rd)
36.2% (9th) Opponent 3PT Shooting % 35% (7th)
14.3 (12th) Turnovers per game 9.5 (2nd)
9-6 Playoff O/U 7-10
8-7 Playoff ATS 10-7


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Warriors Playoff Leaders:

Stephen Curry celebrates a 2022 NBA Playoffs win

  • Stephen Curry, PG: 27.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 38.4% 3PT
  • Klay Thompson, SG: 19.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 38.8% 3PT
  • Jordan Poole, SG: 18.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.4 APG, 39.5% 3PT


Mavericks Playoff Leaders:

Luka Doncic drives to the basket in the 2022 NBA Playoffs

  • Luka Doncic, PG:  32.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47% FG
  • Jalen Brunson, PG:  22.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.6 APG, 47.4% FG
  • Spencer Dinwiddie, PG:  13.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.3% 3PT


Key Injuries:

  • Gary Payton II, Golden State: Out (Elbow) Unlikely for Conference Finals
  • Otto Porter Jr., Golden State: Questionable (Foot)
  • Andre Iguodala, Golden State: Doubtful (Back)

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Game 5 Prediction and Free Pick:

  • I mentioned earlier that the Mavericks were up big in Game 4. They were up 29 points. In the 4th quarter. Golden State actually closed the gap to eight points with 3:23 to play. That’s a pretty remarkable run by Golden State and a pretty poor job of protecting a lead by Dallas. It does make me worry about the Mavericks’ ability to go into San Francisco and keep this series going. 
  • In Game 4, Dallas shot 46.5% from beyond the arc, and they will absolutely need to do that again to win. The margin for error is not large. When Dallas hits from three, they are tough to beat, and they shot well despite Luka Doncic going 3-11 from deep. They will need more performances like the ones they received from Dorian Finney-Smith (4-7 from three) and Reggie Bullock (6-10).
  • On the other hand, the Warriors were cold from deep until the fourth quarter. They’ve been playing a much shorter rotation due to their myriad injuries, so it’s possible they are beginning to see fatigue set in, but you’d expect the Splash Brothers to not string together poor shooting nights. 
  • On the defensive side, the Warriors could use Otto Porter Jr., who is one of their better wing defenders, so his injury status before the game will be crucial. 
  • However, the Warriors have controlled the rebounds pretty much all series thanks to Dallas playing a lot of small-ball and frequently has limited second-chance points for the Mavericks, which forces the Mavericks to be highly efficient on their initial shots. 
  • Last 5: GS is 4-1 in their last 5 games. DAL is 2-3 in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – Against the Spread: GS is 4-1-0 ATS in their last 5 games. DAL is 2-3-0.
  • Last 5 – Over/Under: GS is 2-3-0 on the O/U in their last 5 games. DAL is 3-2-0.
  • Last 5 – Score: GS averaged 113.2 total points in their last 5 games. DAL averaged 109.2 total points in their last 5 games.
  • Last 5 – Points Allowed: GS allowed 103.8 points on average in their last 5 games. DAL allowed 109.2 points on average in their last 5 games.