With just minutes to go before the NFL deadline passed, Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane pulled off a trade for Indianapolis Colts running back Nyheim Hines and another for Falcons safety, and former Bill, Dean Marlowe.
The Bills have had multiple injuries in the secondary, had long been rumored to be in the market for a running back, and Zack Moss had been a healthy inactive each of the last two games so, on the surface, the trades seem to make sense. However, does Hines fill a need that the Bills don’t have? Does his addition get them any closer to putting together a Super Bowl-worthy roster? Will Marlowe start over Damar Hamlin?
Below I’ll break down the pros and cons of the trade and dive into what this may mean for the Bills’ offense going forward.
NYHEIM HINES IS GOOD AND A GOOD FIT
Let’s start with an obvious but also important aspect of this trade: Nyheim Hines is a talented and versatile football player.
During his four years with the Colts prior to this season, he had averaged 4.2 yards per carry and cemented himself as one of the top receiving backs in the league. He had at least 40 receptions in every season, despite playing his last three behind an elite talent in Jonathan Taylor, and finished with over 425 receiving yards twice.
Hines is also a talented punt returning, averaging over 10 yards per return in his four-year career with two punt return touchdowns.
His ability to line up in the backfield, as a slot receiver, and play special teams provide a creative Buffalo coaching staff with numerous ways to get him on the field.
THE COST WAS MINIMAL
Another crucial element of this deal is that the Bills really didn’t have to give up much. As we covered above, Zack Moss had been a healthy inactive each of the last two games and was clearly no longer in Buffalo’s plans. The idea was for him to be a physical counterpart to Devin Singletary and James Cook, but he was unable to prove himself capable of that role. When you consider that the only other piece of the deal with a 6th-round pick that could become a 5th-rounder if Hines performs, it’s a really small price to pay for adding a versatile weapon like Hines.
DOES HINES ACTUALLY HELP THE RB ROOM?
This is the big question that many Bills fans are asking after this trade. On the surface, Hines and James Cook share the same skill set as dynamic receiving threats that can break a big play. Since Cook is coming off of arguably his best game as a pro, the timing seems weird to bring in a player who basically replaces him. Especially since Buffalo will now have a trio of running backs in Singletary, Hines, and Cook who are all not great fits for short-yardage situations.
But that’s what they have Josh Allen for, and much to the chagrin of some fans, the Bills were always likely to keep using Allen when they needed a tough yard or two, even if they had traded for a back like Josh Jacobs.
It’s also important to note that while Hines is also under contract for the next two seasons, he comes with zero dead cap if he’s released in the off-season. That means it’s entirely possible that the Bills are still bullish on James Cook’s long-term future but felt that Nyheim Hines was ready this season while Cook was still developing. Since the Bills are clearly aiming for a Super Bowl this year, delaying Cook’s involvement in the offense for one year in the hopes of bringing home a title likely seemed like a fair gamble.
WILL HINES REALLY BE MORE OF A RECEIVER?
We also can’t ignore the idea that Hines may see the field for Buffalo as more of a slot receiver. The Bills lost Jameson Crowder for an unidentified period of time with a broken ankle and Isaiah McKenzie has not quite broken out in the way the team hoped.
According to NextGen Stats, Nyheim Hines has been targeted on 29% of his routes since entering the league in 2018, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL (min. 900 routes). Hines has averaged a career-high 2.2 yards per route this season (3rd among RB, min. 80 routes).
Even though rookie wide receiver Khalil Shakir seems to have a bright future, Buffalo could view Hines as a complement to McKenzie or perhaps even competition for McKenzie in that slot/gadget role. He also certainly seems like a good bet to take the punt returner role from McKenzie so it’s possible this trade was more about that than James Cook.
WHY DEAN MARLOWE AND WILL IT HELP?
The simple answers here areas familiarity and yes. As a former Bill, Dean Marlowe knows Leslie Frazier’s system and can step in and play right away. With Jordan Poyer dealing with an elbow injury, that appears to be a crucial component of this deal. In fact, Marlowe may be pressed into action against the Jets on Sunday.
However, I think his addition is purely as a reserve safety. Damar Hamlin will likely still start opposite Poyer, and Jaquan Johnson will fill in if Poyer needs to miss time, but Marlowe gives the Bills an experienced backup who has familiarity with the defense, which is a crucial depth move for this secondary at the cost of just a 7th round pick?
ARE THE BILLS BETTER AFTER THE DEADLINE?
Not really.
I know this may seem like a surprising answer because I do think the Hines move was a good one for Buffalo but the upgrade from Cook to Hines will likely have a small overall impact on the team when you think about how often either player is used. I don’t expect Hines to become the feature back, so his addition simply improves the Bills’ personnel on the 20-30 snaps a game where Hines will be on the field. That’s important, yes, but I also believe Cook would have continued to grow into that role.
While Hines is clearly the better player at this juncture, I don’t believe his addition reshapes the offense in any truly substantial way. That’s also simply because it didn’t need to be. The truth of the matter is that the Bills’ offense was likely good enough to win a Super Bowl before the trade deadline. These trades just gave themselves a little extra insurance on their quest to get there.
When paired with the return of Tre White and Xavier Rhodes being activated onto the practice squad, the Bills are becoming healthier and deeper, which is likely as beneficial as making a splash trade at the deadline.
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