Two preseason Super Bowl contenders going in opposite directions face off when Green Bay travels to Buffalo to take on the Bills in Week 8’s Sunday Night Football showdown.
Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Game Details:
- Location: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
- Time: Sunday, October 30th at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- SPREAD: BUF -11.5
- OVER/UNDER: 47.5
Preview:
The last time there was a Sunday Night Football game in Buffalo, we were at the height of the COVID pandemic and no fans were allowed in the stadium. Needless to say, the atmosphere will be just a little bit different on Sunday night with the Bills currently the top seed in the AFC.
This will be the healthiest the Buffalo Bills have been since Week 1. Yes, Micah Hyde is still out for the rest of the season, but right tackle Spencer Brown is the only other starter the Bills will be missing. Gabe Davis is back to 100%, Ryan Bates will play, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips are back, Jordan Poyer is not on the injury report, and the list can go on and on.
Meanwhile, the Packers will be without wide receiver Allen Lazard and slot receiver Randall Cobb remains on the IR, so this might need to be a revenge game for former Bills first-round pick Sammy Watkins, who has battled injuries and inefficiency over the last few years.
Green Bay hasn’t thrown the ball well at full strength this year, which could be bad news against a Buffalo secondary that has been solid despite being without Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White for most of the season and also missing Jordan Poyer and Christian Benford for multiple games.
The Bills are 1tth in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, 7th in yards gained per completion, and 1st in the NFL in interceptions. They are also 7th in the NFL in sacks and four of their defensive linemen are in the top 20 in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) pass rush grades. That could be tough news for the Packers since their left tackle David Bakhtiari is questionable with a knee injury, especially considering Aaron Rodgers is not showing his old mobility and has a pressures-to-sack rate of 21.7%, which means that over one in five pressures ends in him being sacked.
When the Bills have the ball, it’s no secret they will try to rely on the arm of Josh Allen. That could play into Green Bay’s hands since the Packers are giving up 168.9 passing yards per game, which is the best in the NFL. They had stud cornerback Jaire Alexander, who will likely matchup with Stefon Diggs a fair share, but the Bills have a deep passing attack and lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation, so they are highly unlikely to run the ball a lot just because they are facing Green Bay.
The Bills rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game at 323 and also 1st in the NFL in net passing yards per attempt at 7.6 yards. They are 2nd in the NFL, only trailing the Chiefs in passing touchdowns with 17.
Green Bay could try to counter that by bringing extra pressure. The Packers are 4th in the NFL with a 27.1% pressure rate, but that’s because they’re one of the most blitz-happy teams, also ranking 4th in the NFL at 34%. But if you blitz Josh Allen, you give his offensive weapons the chance to be one-on-one, or you give Allen himself the chance to use his legs to escape the pocket into an open field, so it could be a tough dilemma for Green Bay this week.
Picks:
Player Props:
Josh Allen Over 34.5 Passing Attempts
The Bills are going to throw. That’s just who they are and what they do. Josh Allen is now playing on Sunday Night in front of the home crowd against a quarterback he grew up emulating. Oh, and apparently Allen is a little bit irked that Rodgers was talking a lot of trash during the celebrity golf match this summer that Rodgers and Brady won. I think Allen is going to try to make a statement on Sunday night for a number of different reasons.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-114) ON FANDUEL
Gabe Davis over 56.5 receiving yards
If Allen is going to throw a lot, he’s going to need somebody to throw to. Yes, Stefon Diggs will be on the receiving end of some, but if Jaire Alexander is on Diggs, don’t be surprised for Allen to go to Davis often. Also, Davis has proven numerous times that he can top this with just one reception.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-110) ON FANDUEL
Aaron Jones under 46.5 rushing yards
I think Jones will get some decent yardage on Sunday night, but I expect it to be through the air more. Teams simply do not run on the Bills, likely because they need to pass to keep up, and the Bills face the fewest RB rush attempts per game this season and allow the fewest running back rushing yards per game. Considering Jones also splits carries with AJ Dillon and hasn’t been effective of late, I’m taking the under here.
