The NFL playoffs continue this weekend with the Divisional Round, which features two games on Saturday and another two on Sunday. With two New York teams left in the postseason, we’ve found a few indicators that could make one of them a really good bet this weekend.
Below we’ll walk you through some of our best bets for spreads, totals, and even player props to make your weekend of football even more exciting.
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Divisional Round Best Bets
Spreads
Giants (+7.5) over Eagles
Maybe the bye isn’t such a good thing. Last year, we saw both number-one seeds lose after having a week off. Since number one seeds have started to get byes, they cover the spreads just 34% of the time after their week off. When they’re by 10 or less, they cover just 25% of the time.
Then you factor in that this is the third time these two teams are meeting this year. Historically, playoff rematches tend to favor the underdog, especially when it’s a road underdog, but that trend gets more pronounced in the Divisional Round, where road underdogs in rematches are 5-1 against the spread.
All of these are reasons to like the Giants, in addition to their backups playing the Eagles tough in a 22-16 Week 18 loss. I think the Giants can steal this game, but, at worst, I feel like 7.5 is too many points.
WHERE TO BET: You can get -1 at BetMGM (-110)
Bengals (+4.5) over Bills
Both of these teams escaped near-disaster in the Wild Card round with the Bills blowing a huge lead against the Dolphins and the Bengals needing a Ravens fumble at the goal line to seal the victory.
Still, these are two of the NFL’s top-five teams in Football Outsiders’ Overall DVOA, and they will be coming hungry in a game that has extra significance since these were the two teams playing when Damar Hamlin had a cardiac arrest, causing the NFL to cancel the game. These two teams and incredibly evenly matched, but there are two warning signs for the Bills.
First, Josh Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble against Miami and while both of the interceptions weren’t 100% his fault, Buffalo is committing way too many turnovers as a team with three in each of its last three games. They can’t give the Bengals extra opportunities and expect to win.
The second concern for Buffalo is the mediocre secondary play without Micah Hyde. Over the final eight games of the regular season, Joe Burrow averaged 268.3 passing yards per game and threw 18 touchdowns to six interceptions, so he can pick apart some of the weaknesses with the Buffalo backups. Add to that that the Bengals finished 12-4 against the spread this season, and they feel like a good pick with the points.
WHERE TO BET: DraftKings (+110)
Game Totals
Chiefs/Jaguars UNDER 51.5 points
Andy Reid has had two weeks to prepare for a Jacksonville offense that saw Trevor Lawrence throw four first-half interceptions against the Chargers. I know they came back and won, but Reid will be dialing up opportunities for his defense to capitalize on those same Lawrence mistakes. However, we also mentioned above that teams have struggled coming off of a bye in the postseason, and the Jaguars have been playing good football of late, so I think this game will be a bit more of a struggle than people think. I could see it finishing in the high 40s, but I’ll take the under on 51.5.
WHERE TO BET: DraftKings (-110)
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Player Props
Trevor Lawrence UNDER 17.5 rushing Yards
Lawrence has only hit this mark in six of his 18 games this season. He’s topped it just twice in his last six games, so perhaps Vegas is looking at the 26 yards rushing he had against Kansas City in the first matchup. However, 18 of those came on just one run, and Lawrence has nine rushing yards COMBINED over his last three games. With the passing game picking up steam, his rushing numbers have dipped, and I expect that to continue this weekend, which makes the under a best bet for me.
WHERE TO BET: FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
Dallas Goedert OVER 47.5 receiving yards
The Giants really struggle against tight ends, which we saw last weekend when T.J. Hockenson posted ten catches for 129 yards, which were both game-highs. New York is the most blitz-heavy team in the NFL, which leads to opportunities for tight ends to have huge days over the middle of the field. According to Pro Football Focus, the Giants have a coverage grade against tight ends of 39.0, which ranks 31st in the NFL.
Goedert averages 58.5 yards per game on the season, so this line feels super low to me. He had six catches for 46 yards in the last meeting between the two, but that 7.7 yards per reception was his lowest on the season. I can’t bet on that happening again.
WHERE TO BET: DraftKings (-140)
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown scorer
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We had Knox here last week, and he almost had two touchdowns, if the NFL could agree on what a catch actually is. Still, he hauled in one touchdown, which makes five consecutive games with a touchdown for Knox, who is a favorite of Josh Allen’s in the playoffs. In fact, Knox has five touchdowns in the last five Buffalo playoff games, so even if he isn’t putting up big yardage totals, he’s coming through when his team needs him. I expect this game to be relatively high scoring, which gives us a good chance at another Knox touchdown.
WHERE TO BET: Fanduel Sportsbook (+215)
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