Quantcast

The top Giants vs. Buccaneers player props picks

Note: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links, Schneps Media may earn a commission.
giants buccaneers player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Giants could be in for it on Monday night when they head south to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in primetime. Tom Brady faces the team he hates the most fresh off back-to-back losses. Brady is 11-4 ATS in his career after losing two straight and New York is just 11-16 ATS as road underdogs on Monday Night Football. With so many high profile stars in action tonight, player props betting should be heavy for this one.

Let’s take a look at our favorite Giants vs. Buccaneers player props picks for this NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup, complete with betting analysis.

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

FANDUEL HOLIDAY BONUS

CLAIM NOW
NEW PLAYER BONUS$50 DEPOSIT-FREE BONUS!
ALL WEEKEND LONG!
CLAIM OFFER

The Best Giants vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This game should provide Chris Godwin with an incredible opportunity to get into the end zone for his sixth touchdown of the season. Antonio Brown is out. Mike Evans is red-hot and second in the league in receiving touchdowns, making him most likely to get some extra attention from the Giants secondary. Oh yeah, and Tom Brady is off back-to-back losses, playing the team he hates most.

Godwin would be a good play for this prop almost any week, as he is Tampa Bay’s leader in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. He even has a rushing touchdown to his name this year. But what makes him stand out in this matchup in particular is the Giants’ inability to cover slot receivers in the red zone.

BARSTOOL SPORTSBOOK

STATES: AZ, CO, IL, IN, MI, PA, VA, NJ, TN, IA, WV

GET THE APP
PROMO CODE:
AMNY1000
SIGNUP BONUS$1,000
RISK-FREE
BET NOW

The Giants have allowed 10 touchdown receptions by wideouts through nine games. Strikingly, eight of those 10 scores by wide receivers were tallied by slot receivers. Godwin is one of the league’s best in this role and should be able to produce a stat line similar to the one Cooper Kupp produced when he faced New York in Week 6. Kupp caught nine of 12 targets for 130 yards and two scores in that one.

Tampa Bay’s passing offense has produced 27 scores through the air already in nine games. That average of three such scores per game is a league high and jumps even higher when they are at home, as they average a mind-boggling 4.5 passing scores per game at Raymond James Stadium. Wide receivers have caught 18 of those 27 passing touchdowns, giving us an average of two wide receiver scores per game with which to work. With Brady having thrown at least four touchdowns in each of his four home games and looking to inflict maximum damage tonight, it’s hard to imagine Godwin NOT scoring.

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

NEW PLAYER BONUS!

CLAIM NOW
NEW PLAYER BONUSBET $1, GET $100!
EITHER TEAM TO SCORE
CLAIM OFFER

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns

The above leads us perfectly into this prop selection. How can you pass up a prop that pays better than even money for asking a guy to do what he has done in all of his home games so far this season?

That’s right, Tom Brady only needs three touchdown passes to cash this wager, yet, as mentioned, has thrown for at least four scores in all four of his home games this year. There are likely a couple starters in the NFL right now that won’t reach 18 passing touchdowns during the entirety of 2021. Brady has that many in four home games.

That four game sample space is not the extent of his conquests this season either. Brady has 27 passing touchdowns already, two more than the next closest guy, Patrick Mahomes, who has played an extra game. That means that on any field, Brady is averaging three touchdown passes per game, enough to win this pick. Tampa’s quarterback has thrown three or more touchdowns in five of his team’s nine games, tossing at least two in all but two contests.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores TD!

CLAIM NOW
NEW PLAYER PROMOBET $10, WIN $200
TD BONUS
CLAIM OFFER

It’s unlikely that the Giants are going to be the team to slow him down either. For starters, he loathes this franchise, which directly cost him two more Super Bowl rings. Secondly, New York just isn’t a very good pass defense on any front. They are ranked 21st in passing yards allowed and are tied for the seventh highest passing touchdowns against average. Worse yet, New York is knotted up with two other teams for the sixth highest passing touchdown percentage against (66.66%).

We know Brady isn’t going to put the brakes on with a large lead here. He will want to get this offense right again and grind the Giants to a pulp if he gets the chance. Doing that with his arm will only make things sweeter. He should explode in this one the way Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott did against this same defense earlier in the season.

Daniel Jones Over 240.5 Passing Yards

If our suspicions are correct and Brady is to pour it on tonight, then Daniel Jones is going to have to find a way to keep pace. Teams know by now that is unlikely to happen by pounding the rock, so Jones will probably have to take to the air if New York is to stand a chance.

Tampa Bay has been the league’s most dominant run-stopping unit for several years now and currently sit second in that category this season (although Vita Vea is out tonight). The Buccaneers allow less than 80 yards on the ground per game, despite having already faced three of the league’s top five rushing outfits. The Tampa Bay pass defense, however, is vulnerable, sitting 22nd in the NFL, allowing 254.2 yards per game.

The Bucs have clamped down a bit of late against the pass, but opposing quarterbacks have still topped this prop’s requirement in six of the nine games  (six of eight if you only consider games in which the starter played the entire game). It’s also worth noting that the three quarterbacks who failed to top this number are currently ranked 27th, 31st, and 32nd in passing yards per game, all far worse than the Giants’ No. 14 ranking.

Jones’ passing numbers have cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but he still would have cashed this wager in five of the eight games he played in full. Two of the three in which he failed to do so came against the league’s best and 12th pass defenses, while the third allows just a few yards more per game than this Tampa group.

New York enters play off a bye and could have some nice scripted pass plays early to take a chunk out of what we need here.

However, we expect the Giants to be chasing this game throughout and that will almost certainly be via Jones’ arm and legs. He should crest this passing yardage number in garbage time, at worst.

Lock in a $1,001 first bet match and a $100 MasterCard gift card with Caesars Sportsbook.

More from around NYC