Heisman Trophy update: Caleb Williams now virtual lock heading into championship week

We have just one week of the college football regular season left, and the Heisman Trophy race shifted drastically again after another injury and a poor performance from one of the favorites. As of now, Vegas sees this as a near virtual lock for Caleb Williams, but we’ll dive deeper into why. 

Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the Heisman Trophy race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes. 

So what are the odds after Week 13?

Updated Heisman Trophy Odds

Heisman Trophy odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook. To view, click here

The devastating injury to Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker made this a two-player race between Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and USC quarterback Caleb Williams. That is, until Stroud’s uneven showing in a lopsided loss to Michigan last week made this all but a surefire win for Williams.

Stroud came into last week with -110 odds; however, we mentioned that he was coming off two mediocre outings. He went 18-of-30 for 241 yards and one touchdown in a 43-30 win over Maryland, and before that he threw for just 76 yards on 10-of-26 passes against Northwestern and completed 18-of-30 passes last weekend with 241 yards and a touchdown in a win over Maryland. 

We knew he needed a big game against Michigan to seal the deal, and while going 31-for-48 for 349 yards and two touchdowns in good, he also threw two fourth-quarter interceptions and couldn’t get the Ohio State offense going at all in the second half. Considering that was Stroud’s last game before Heisman voting is done, it would seem unlikely for him to claim the trophy given his current +2000 odds. 

That means Caleb Williams, who was +100 last week and +600 over the summer is likely to take home the prize. The fact that Williams was at +1600 just three weeks ago tells you all you need to know about how volatile this race has been over the last month. However, Williams appears to be the last man standing. 

He ranks 7th in the nation in passing yards with 3,712 yards and is tied for fourth in touchdown passes with 34. The sophomore threw for 232 yards and one touchdown in last week’s win over Notre Dame and rushed for another 35 yards and three scores. He’ll have another chance to impress voters in the Pac-12 title game. 

There’s some hope that Michigan running back Blake Corum will also have another chance. He has been running third in the Heisman race for much of the last month, he suffered a knee injury in the first half against Illinois two weeks ago. He still finished with 108 yards and a touchdown but was unable to play against Ohio State and is no longer in the mix to be a Heisman finalist, which is a bummer for a guy who rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns. 

He will sadly be added to Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker as potential Heisman trophy candidates whose chances were cut short by injury. 

That leaves TCU quarterback Max Duggan as the likely third finalist and perhaps the only person with a chance of overtaking Williams. It’s highly unlikely, as the odds suggest, but TCU will play Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, so if Williams flops in historic fashion and Duggan puts forth a heroic effort, it could be possible. Just not likely. 

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