The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will battle for the final playoff spot in the NFC when they clash on Sunday night.
Detroit Lions (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Game Details:
- Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI
- Time: Sunday, January 8th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: GB ML (-240), DET ML (+196)
- SPREAD: GB -5.0
- OVER/UNDER: 49
Preview:
Both Detroit and Green Bay have a chance to end Sunday night with the seventh and final postseason ticket in the NFC, pulling off a pair of remarkable comebacks. Detroit and Green Bay have been two of the hottest teams in the NFL over the past two months. The Lions have won seven of nine, and the Packers have won their last four games. Since Week 13, the Lions are 3rd in overall DVOA and the Packers are right behind them at 4th.
When it comes to the playoff scenarios, it’s win-and-in for the Packers, but the situation is not as friendly for the Lions. They need to win and hope the Seattle Seahawks don’t beat the Los Angeles Rams earlier Sunday afternoon to make it in. If Seattle does beat Los Angeles then this game won’t matter for Detroit other than to try and keep Green Bay out of the playoffs.
Detroit comes into this game with the 5th-ranked pass offense, going up against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 10th. The last time these two teams met, Green Bay held Detroit to a season-low 137 passing yards, but Detroit didn’t have DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, or Jameson Williams in that game. With all three back in the lineup since Week 13, the Lions rank 1st in EPA per dropback, 2nd in pass offense, and 1st in passing touchdowns.
Jared Goff leads the NFL in passer rating over that time but should get a tough test against a Green Bay secondary that has allowed a passer rating above 90 just twice since early October, and have allowed over 250 net passing yards just six times all year. They’ve also recorded nine interceptions over the last four games, so they will make things tough for Goff.
Detroit will need to run well if they want to win this game since the Packers have the 31st-ranked run defense. D’Andre Swift is looking healthier by the week, recording 78 yards on 11 carries last week. The Packers have allowed over 150 rushing yards in half of their games, and they’ve allowed over 4.5 yards per carry in nine games—including five of their last seven, so if Swift is healthy, the Lions could ride him and Jamaal Williams to a win.
The Packers should also have an advantage on the ground since their running game ranks 3rd in the NFL and the Lions’ run defense ranks just 27th. The combination of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon has rushed for 1,800 yards and nine touchdowns this season, so they can help Green Bay control the clock.
The Packers will also hope to move the ball through the air through quick passing. Aaron Rodgers averaged 2.68 seconds to throw, which is the 10th fastest in the league, and the quick passes have helped him move the stick without a healthy receiving corps.
However, the Packers are healthy not and the Lions have really struggled with big plays, allowing 56 passes of 20+ yards, which is third most in the NFL. That could be good news for rookie wide receiver Christian Watson. Since Week 10, Watson ranks 10th in the NFL yards per reception at 16.1 and is tied for first in touchdowns with seven, so he is a real threat to Detroit over the top.
Pick:
Detroit 31 Green Bay 27
Player Props:
Aaron Jones OVER 58.5 rushing yards
Aaron Jones splits carries with AJ Dillon, but Jones got the majority of the work between the 20s vs. the Vikings, where he had 11 carries for 111 rushing yards. The Lions rank 28th in expected points added vs. the rush and 29th in rushing success rate, so I’m confident in Jones hitting this tonight.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at FanDuel (-114)
Jamaal Williams OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards
We covered above that the Packers can be beaten on the ground, and even with Swift emerging of late, Williams has continued to play well. He has double-digit carries in all but one game this season, and last week took 22 carries for 144 yards and a score. Williams also needs six more rushing yards to get to 1,000 yards for the season, at which point he earns a $250,000 bonus, so you know Detroit will ride him.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at BetMGM (-120)
Jared Goff UNDER 248.5 Passing Yards
Jared Goff is going on the road in Lambeau to take on a Green Bay defense that has been tremendous against the pass recently. The Lions could easily win this game if they ride their two running backs to a victory, but given that there is also a chance that the Detroit game won’t matter come kickoff if the Seahawks win early, I’m going to take the under here.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at BetMGM (-110)
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