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Mets 2022 preview: Odds, projections, more

Max Scherzer Mets
Max Scherzer/Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

No other team in Major League Baseball toes the fine line between success and Murphy’s Law (whatever can go wrong, will) like the New York Mets — and usually, it all goes wrong. 

But owner Steve Cohen continues to pump cash into the organization with the belief that they will be a World Series contender sooner rather than later. After a disappointing 2021 season that fell woefully short of postseason expectations, he was at it again.

A shopping spree that cost over $250 million brought in Max Scherzer to pair up with Jacob deGrom, Starling Marte to be a bona fide center fielder, Mark Canha to provide further outfield depth and cushion the loss of Michael Conforto, and Eduardo Escobar to bring more pop to the left side of the infield. 

On top of that, the Mets raided the Oakland Athletics and came away with one of their All-Star pitchers, Chris Bassitt, to provide a sturdy No. 3 option. 

Now the core of deGrom, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor have even more support within a well-rounded roster that — on paper — should be in the thick of the NL East race.

Murphy’s Law, however, already hasn’t been too far away.

DeGrom was shut down last week for a shoulder issue that has shut him down from throwing for at least one month. It’s left first-year manager Buck Showalter with the prospect of starting Tylor Megill on Opening Day rather than the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner himself, added even more anxiety in Queens when a hamstring issue cropped up shortly after deGrom’s exit. However, the 37-year-old is on track to start the team’s second game of the year on Friday for his Mets debut.

Brandon Nimmo, the perennial .400 on-base-percentage threat continues dealing with neck issues while an oblique problem looks as though it’s forcing Marte to right field for Opening Day — delaying the hope that the Mets have a legitimate, every-day center fielder that isn’t playing out of position.

All the while, trade rumors continue to swirl around Dominic Smith and JD Davis while the bullpen still leaves something to be desired; especially with closer Edwin Diaz still having to prove that he can be the elite shutdown man he was with the Seattle Mariners three years ago. 

Yes, this is a team that has vastly improved compared to last season. But, again, this is the Mets, who seemingly find ways to usher in calamity.

Which one will it be this year?

Let’s take a look at the team’s odds this season and their projected outputs:

2022 NL East, Mets odds

Team Projected record Odds to win division Odds to make playoffs Odds to win World Series
Atlanta Braves 93-69 +120 -370 +950
New York Mets 89-73 +200 -245 +1200
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74 +330 -140 +2200
Miami Marlins 83-79 +1500 +275 +9000
Washington Nationals 73-89 +6000 +850 +15000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here.

Mets projected Opening Day Lineup, 2022 stats

Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso/Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
  1. Brandon Nimmo (CF): 133 G, .258 BA, .809 OPS, 16 HR, 52 RBI
  2. Starling Marte (RF): 134 G, .271 BA, .758 OPS, 16 HR, 64 RBI
  3. Francisco Lindor (SS): 152 G, .258 BA, .800 OPS, 29 HR, 88 RBI
  4. Pete Alonso (1B): 151 G, .260 BA, .894 OPS, 43 HR, 114 RBI
  5. Robinson Cano (DH): 113 G, .259 BA, .715 OPS, 14 HR, 56 RBI
  6. Eduardo Escobar (3B): 138 G, .244 BA, .752 OPS, 26 HR, 82 RBI
  7. Jeff McNeil (2B): 133 G, .281 BA, .776 OPS, 14 HR, 64 RBI
  8. Mark Canha (LF): 133 G, .235 BA, .765 OPS, 19 HR, 65 RBI
  9. James McCann (C): 96 G, .233 BA, .662 OPS, 10 HR, 42 RBI

Bench

  • Tomas Nido (C): 60 G, .221 BA, .615 OPS, 6 HR, 25 RBI
  • Luis Guillorme (INF): 26 G, .254 BA, .696 OPS, 2 HR, 9 RBI
  • JD Davis (INF/OF): 73 G, .254 BA, .767 OPS, 11 HR, 37 RBI
  • Dominic Smith (OF/1B): 96 G, .254 BA, .737 OPS, 13 HR, 55 RBI

Starting Rotation

Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom/Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
  • Tylor Megill (R): 18 GS, 104 IP, 6-6, 4.22 ERA, 111 K’s, 1.28 WHIP
  • Max Scherzer (R): 31 GS, 188 IP, 13-8, 3.26 ERA, 247 K’s, 1.03 WHIP
  • Chris Bassitt (R): 31 GS, 176 IP, 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 170 K’s, 1.22 WHIP
  • Carlos Carrasco (R): 26 GS, 139 IP, 10-8, 4.06 ERA, 143 K’s, 1.25 WHIP
  • Taijuan Walker (R): 26 GS, 140 IP, 8-9, 4.55 ERA, 131 K’s, 1.33 WHIP
  • Jacob deGrom (R)*: 19 GS, 114 IP, 8-4, 2.43 ERA, 163 K’s, 0.91 WHIP

Bullpen

  • Trevor Williams (R): 64 IP, 4.35 ERA, 8.08 K/9, 1.30 WHIP
  • Sean Reid-Foley (R): 33 IP, 4.47 ERA, 10.31 K/9, 1.44 WHIP
  • Chasen Shreve (L): 40 IP, 4.69 ERA, 9.05 K/9, 1.40 WHIP
  • Drew Smith (R): 56 IP, 4.44 ERA, 9.07 K/9, 1.33 WHIP
  • Joely Rodriguez (L): 60 IP, 3.31 ERA, 9.85 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
  • Seth Lugo (R): 70 IP, 3.82 ERA, 9.91 K/9, 1.18 WHIP
  • Adam Ottavino (R): 67 IP, 3.77 ERA, 11.14 K/9, 1.33 WHIP
  • Trevor May (R): 66 IP, 3.66 ERA, 11.56 K/9, 1.20 WHIP
  • Edwin Diaz (R): 67 IP, 33 saves, 2.99 ERA, 13.43 K/9, 1.09 WHIP

*Denotes injured player

Projections courtesy of FanGraphs Depth Chart, which is a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by their staff.

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