Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet.

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MLB Best Bets for August 11th

We went 5-2 on Wednesday night to continue a strong start to the week at 14-6 overall. We have a short slate on Thursday with a few “getaway games,” which usually mean we don’t see the top lineups for each tea.

We only have two runline bets tonight with PHI -1.5 (+128) and HOU -1.5 (-136). The Phillies have won 12 of their last 13, and the Marlins have been pretty poor of late, so I’m a bit surprised that the Phillies runline has odds this favorable. Even with Edward Cabrera on the mound, our model has the Phillies favored by 2.74 runs, so covering 1.5 feels comfortable, while the model also has the Astros favored by 2.48 runs because the underlying numbers for Cole Ragan’s debut were not great.

A few teams who I like straight up today are BAL ML (+110), CLE ML (-152), and CIN ML (-113). The Guardians are pushing our -150 cap. I usually don’t want to have to bet $150 to win $100, but -152 is close enough, so we’ll roll with it. I simply don’t trust Garrett Hill and neither does the model, as it favors Cleveland by 1.64 total runs. It’s honestly a total that could cause you to bet the runline, but I’m just going to go with the ML for now.

We bet against Boston last night, and we’re going back to that well tonight. The starting pitching has been really poor of late, and Baltimore has been tremendous. Our model has Baltimore favored by 1.83 runs, so you could actually even take the Orioles on the runline for even better odds, but that feels a bit too risky for me. The model also likes Cincinnati on the runline with Nick Lodolo on the mound, favoring the Reds by 1.70 runs today.