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MLB best bets: Free picks for MLB slate on August 17th

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Jose Altuve celebrates a home run in MLB action
Houston Astros’ Framber Valdez, left, picks up Jose Altuve in the dugout in celebration of Altuve’s home run off Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease during the fifth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 17th

MLB Best Bets

We’re off to a rough start this week in our MLB bets. We have to acknowledge that. While that doesn’t mean we need to ignore or change our process, which has been working for us recently, it does mean we should examine some blind spots. Right now, the model thinks San Diego should be dominating Miami, but it’s just not happening.

This Padres offense is so cold in this series, so that’s why I’m avoiding that game today, even though the model likes the Padres again. Sometimes you have to let your common sense and your own gut feelings help you make a decision and not blindly trust the math. 

We only have one game on the runline today, and it’s OAK +1.5 (-147). Oakland won last night’s game 5-1 and lost the first game of the series 2-1, so they are certainly keeping close to Texas. The Rangers are also throwing Cole Ragans, and the model only has Texas up by 0.24 runs, so I’m happy to take the Athletics here. 

We continue with three money line plays: CHC ML (-149), NYM ML (-155), and HOU ML (-148). A few of these are really straddling that -150 line that we like to keep to, but I still think they are solid bets. The Mets with Max Scherzer on the mound are 0.94 run favorite, according to the model, and Chicago is 1.46 run favorite over Washington, so those feel like safe bets to take these odds. 

Houston blew a lead late last night, allowing three runs in the last two innings, but I’m prepared to go back to them today. The model has them as 1.78 run favorites with Framber Valdez on the mound, and I know that the White Sox are banged up, so I’ll take this play. 

We end with five plays on the O/U. We have two unders with SEA/LAA U8.5 and TB/NYY U8.5. The Yankees have really been struggling of late, and this Tampa team is not built on offense, so the model sees this game, with 7.23 total runs. Similarly, the Angels are not a tremendous offensive team, and George Kirby is on the hill for Seattle so the model sees this total at 7.41 total runs. 

The three overs we have are: COL/STL O7 (-110), LAD/MIL O8.5 (-101), and PHI/CIN O8.5 (-102). The over in LAD/MIL hit last night, so we’ll go back to the well here with Eric Lauer and Tony Gonsolin on the mound, two pitchers out-performing their peripherals. Our model has this game at 10.07 total runs. The model also likes COL/STL to go over a bunch with an 8.52 total, which far exceeds the seven that Vegas set, which I think is too low. 

Lastly, we have a strong Phillies team in a plus offensive environment in Cincinnati, and our model has this at 9.70 runs, which is close, but a play we’ll make with inconsistent Nick Lodolo on the hill for the Reds. 

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Nick Lodolo pitches for the Reds in an MLB game
Cincinnati Reds’ Nick Lodolo throws during the first inning of an MLB game against the Baltimore Orioles in Cincinnati, Sunday, July 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

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