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MLB free picks and best bets for August 5th

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White Sox are an MLB best bet
Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson throw to first to complete the double play after forcing Texas Rangers’ Marcus Semien at second in the first inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Aug. 4, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. Corey Seager was out at first. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 5th

MLB Best bets

Sitting 13-9-2 through three days is pretty solid, but we want to push that a little more in the green over the weekend. 

We have a few more ML plays today with BAL (-155), NYY (-155), and CHC (-148). They’re all on a bit of the high side from where I might normally bet, but I try to draw the line at -150, which means I’d need to spend $150 to make a $100 profit. These are close enough for me to roll with them. 

The Yankees are the biggest favorite in our model, which has them as 2.89 run favorites over St. Louis but Dakota Hudson’s advanced stats are always much higher than his real performance because he’s a groundball pitcher with an elite defense. Still, I like the Yankees to win here, but I won’t bet the spread.

Same goes for the Cubs, who we have as 1.57 run favorites over Edward Cabrera and a Marlins offense that has really struggled of late, and the Orioles, who are 1.90 run favorites over the Pirates. There is enough cushion in both of these matchups to feel good about the ML bets. 

Two runline bets I think are the best bets are SEA -1.5 (+112) and the CHW -1.5 (-108). These are also our two biggest return bets on the day, but the White Sox runline started the day at +110, which should tell you that the betting public feels good about them beating up on Glenn Otto and riding Dylan Cease to a win. 

The Mariners are 1.51 run favorites according to our model, which is a little close for comfort. However, I know that the year-long SIERA we use doesn’t truly reflect just how good Robbie Ray has been of late. Or how bad the Angels have been that even with seven home runs yesterday, they still lose. That has to just be deflating to a team. 

We have three O/U with the biggest question mark being WAS/PHI U 9 (-116). This only pushed yesterday because of the rain, but the model thinks this comes in at 7.30 runs, so I’m going to let the math do the talking here. If we add the context of the depleted Nationals lineup and the fact that Josiah Gray has flashed the ability to shut down opposing offenses, we can talk ourselves into agreeing with the model. 

We end with SD/LAD O 8.5 (-117) and CHW/TEX O 7.5 (-118). The White Sox bet is another way to pick on Glenn Otto and our model has that game at 8.96 total runs, while our model also sees the Dodgers/Padres game at 9.58 total runs, which doesn’t even account for the new offense the Padres will bring to town. 

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MLB pitcher Josiah Gray
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray throws to the plate during the first inning of an MLB game against the Los Angeles Dodgers Tuesday, July 26, 2022, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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