MLB free picks and best bets for July 29th

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Trea Turner scores in an MLB game
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Trea Turner, left, scores on a single hit by Will Smith as Colorado Rockies catcher Elias Diaz turns to apply a late tag in the fourth inning of a baseball game Thursday, July 28, 2022, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms and check out our sign-up deals at the bottom of the article. 

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MLB Best Bets for July 29th

MLB best bets for Friday

The Mets and Rangers are the only two games I like on the ML with these odds. The Rangers won yesterday against Shohei Ohtani because the Angels’ putrid offense couldn’t score a single run against Spencer Howard. Martin Perez is due for some regression, but the model likes Texas by 1.65 runs. At odds of just -106, that’s too good to pass up. The model also has the Mets (-123) favored by .50 runs, and we agree that the Mets are the superior team here, even with Sandy Alcantara pitching. 

The model has spit out a few big run differential games today that should make for good runline bets, meaning they have to win by at least two runs. For starters, the model has the Dodgers as 3.03 run favorites over the Colorado, which is nice at -153 odds (I usually won’t go much above -150). The Yankees (-182 on the runline) and Blue Jays (-177 on the runline) are projected by the model to win by 3.91 and 2.06 runs respectively. The odds have gone up as the day has gone on, so these aren’t really attractive bets unless you’re using them as part of a larger parlay. 

Milwaukee is an interesting pick on the runline because they have positive odds at +101 but our model has Milwaukee winning by 2.84 total runs. Brayan Bello may be coming out of the bullpen, but he will still be the primary pitcher for Boston, and he has had a rough start to his career. With Rafael Devers and Trevor Story will on the IL, I’m not sure Boston can handle Brandon Woodruff. 

Lastly, our model like a few games on the over/under. The biggest discrepancy is the LAD/COL game where the model sees the game finishing with 13.79 runs, but Vegas has the O/U set at 11.5 (-116). The model also sees BOS/MIL going over the O/U of nine by 1.32 total runs (-116). Similarly, the model has CHW/OAK (-113) finishing with 9.5 runs, which is noticeably over the Vegas total of eight. 

On the under, the model sees St. Louis and Washington finishing with 7.75 total runs, which is under the O/U of nine enough for us to take this bet at -113 odds. 

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The Red Sox in MLB action
Boston Red Sox’s Alex Verdugo, left, celebrates with Xander Bogaerts after Bogaerts hit a three-run home run against the Cleveland Guardians during the sixth inning of an MLB game Thursday, July 28, 2022, in Boston. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

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