As we inch closer to the halfway mark of the NFL season, we’re starting to see the contenders separate from the pretenders, including with individual awards like the NFL MVP, where the same few names have remained at the top of the list.
Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the NFL MVP race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes.
So what are the odds after Week 7?
Updated NFL MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
| Josh Allen | +125 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +400 |
| Jalen Hurts | +450 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1200 |
| Joe Burrow | +1600 |
| Justin Herbert | +2500 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to view
Obviously, a lot can still change in regard to injuries and team performance, but the NFL MVP race really feels like a three-man race at this point in the season.
Josh Allen (+200) remains the betting favorite and was shockingly at +160 last week, which means his odds got BETTER despite being on a bye. Allen currently leads the NFL with 2,187 total net yards gained and is 2nd in passing TDS, 5th in passing yards, and 5th in completion percentage despite playing seven and a half quarters less than the other leaders due to byes and blowouts.
He’s on pace for 5,610 passing yards and 48 TD, and what he’s doing is stupid. The Bills remaining schedule also only had three teams with a winning record: Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. It’s really hard to bet against Allen right now.
However, Patrick Mahomes (+500) is also having a historic season. He’s on pace for 5,243 passing yards and 49 TD, which would easily be enough to make him the favorite if it wasn’t for Allen. Mahomes crushed the 49ers on Sunday with 423 yards and three touchdowns on 25-of-34 passes and has this offense humming even without Tyreek Hill. The issue for Mahomes is that he was outplayed by Allen in the Bills’ victory over the Chiefs which will means Mahomes has to be CLEARLY superior to Allen the rest of the way to edge him out of the award.
The third man in the MVP race is another quarterback who was on a bye, Jalen Hurts (+600). The Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team and have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way with their toughest games coming against the Titans, Giants, and Cowboys. If you think this Eagles team can get 16-1 or undefeated then it’s going to be hard for the NFL to not award the player who drives that offense.
However, even with as well as Hurts has played, and he has been good, his MVP chances might require that kind of finish for the Eagles if he wants to top Allen and Mahomes.
Lamar Jackson (+1200) had also been involved in the NFL MVP conversation, but he had a rough October and fell from +500 just two weeks ago. In his four October games, two wins and two losses, Lamar has thrown for 648 yards, failing to hit 200 yards in three of those four games. He’s also thrown three touchdowns to four interceptions and taken eight sacks. He does have 267 yards rushing in those four games but no touchdowns, which isn’t going to be enough to keep him in this conversation.
