The NFL season is off and running. Over these next few weeks, we’ll start to see the contenders separate themselves both in terms of team results and individual awards like the NFL MVP.
Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the NFL MVP race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes.
So what are the odds after Week 1?
Updated NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen (+400) remains the betting favorite, and it’s hard to argue against it. Allen was 26-31 for 297 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 56 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He also did that against the defending Super Bowl champions. While Allen did throw two interceptions, one bounced in and out of Isaiah McKenzie’s hands, so it’s hard to fault Allen. He’s going to be the engine that drives the Bills all season and if Week 1 is any indication, it’s a powerful engine.
I think the rushing yards is what most separates Allen from Patrick Mahomes (+600) when it comes to potential NFL MVP voting, but Mahomes looked equally as good throwing the ball on Sunday. He went 30-39 for 360 yards and five touchdowns against an admittedly average Cardinals defense. Mahomes is clearly not going to shy away from pushing the ball without Tyreek Hill, so he remains a good bet at these odds because we know the Chiefs will remain one of the best teams in football.
I am still surprised to see Aaron Rodgers (+1500) with the fifth-best odds. The Packers looked bad on Sunday, and it’s becoming apparent that their strategy to replace Davante Adams with nobody was a poor one. Green Bay’s rookie receivers could become solid NFL contributors because they’re talented young players, but it’s not going to happen in the first half of this season, so it’s hard to envision Rodgers winning NFL MVP throwing to this receiving corps.
A quarterback has won this award each of the last nine years, so it’s probably your best bet to put your money on a quarterback. However, the only other position that has won an NFL MVP since 1986 is running back, and Saquon Barkley (+19000) certainly looked like he has the talent to match past winners like Adrian Peterson and Shaun Alexander.
The Giants’ offense looks like it will run through Barkley, who rushed for 164 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown and also caught six passes for another 30 yards. Barkley has always had the talent to play with the best runners in the league but has battled injuries.
If he can be fully healthy all year, and the Giants can sneak into the playoffs, a possibility with Dak Prescott now out for potentially six weeks, Barkley could put up elite numbers on one of the most improved teams in the league. That kind of story, while a longshot, could win an MVP and a small $10 bet would net you $1,900 in profit if it does.
For more football betting coverage like this NFL MVP piece, visit amNY Sports