A year after Garrett Wilson took home the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, it seems that no Jets or Giants players are serious contenders for this year’s award.
It’s not a surprise since neither team used a first or second-round pick on an offensive skill position player and the field is stocked with lottery quarterbacks and the first top-10 pick running back we’ve seen in a while.
After covering the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds earlier, below I’ll discuss the players who the sportsbooks seem to like, which players pop as betting values, and whether either of the Jets or Giants rookies have any shot to climb into the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
|Bijan Robinson||Atlanta Falcons||RB||+300|
|Bryce Young||Carolina Panthers||QB||+475|
|Anthony Richardson||Indianapolis Colts||QB||+650|
|C.J. Stroud||Houston Texas||QB||+700|
|Jaxon Smith-Njigba||Seattle Seahawks||WR||+750|
|Jahmyr Gibbs||Detroit Lions||RB||+900|
|Jordan Addison||Minnesota Vikings||WR||+1700|
|Zay Flowers||Baltimore Ravens||WR||+1800|
|Quentin Johnson||Los Angeles Chargers||WR||+2000|
|Will Levis||Tennessee Titans||QB||+2500|
|Jalin Hyatt||New York Giants||WR||+2800|
In the history of the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, 34 winners have been running backs, by far the most of any position. Quarterback and wide receiver both have 11 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners each, while a tight end has never won the award.
Running backs have won the award in two of the last six seasons, with Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara winning in back-t0-back years in 2017-18, and in four of the last ten seasons with Todd Gurley winning in 2015 and Eddie Lacy winning in 2013.
The last two winners were wide receivers, Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase, and only three quarterbacks have won in the last ten years, Justin Herbert in 2020, Kyler Murray in 2019, and Dak Prescott in 2016. However, Dan Marino is the only quarterback to win Offensive Rookie of the Year with less than 12 starts in his rookie season, which could pose a threat to some of this year’s developmental signal-callers.
While it was a surprise for some to see a running back taken inside of the top ten in a league that no longer seems to value the position as highly, there is no question that Bijan Robinson (+300) is a special talent. He is one of the best running backs to come out of college in recent memory, and since the Atlanta Falcons were able to mount a successful rushing attack last year with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier, expectations are high for what they can do with a talent like Robinson.
Given how many running backs have claimed the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in the past, it’s hard to bet against a guy like Robinson who figures to hoard his team’s carries.
If you wanted to gamble on a quarterback overtaking Robinson then the only two real options are Bryce Young (+475) and C.J. Stroud (+700) since they are the only two I feel reasonably certain will start more than 12 games this year.
Young would appear to be the favorite to be the top quarterback since he was the consensus top pick in the NFL Draft and threw for 80 touchdowns and more than 8,300 yards during his career at Alabama. However, his receiving corps is potentially worse than the one he had last year with just Adam Theilen, Terrace Marshall, and Hayden Hurst to throw to.
Things aren’t much easier for C.J. Stroud, who had some questions about his ability to show up in big games during his career at Ohio State and his tendency to make bad throws under pressure. He will get a long leash in Houston but, like Young, will have an inexperienced receiving corps that might be worse than the one he had with the Buckeyes last year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+750) is a pro-ready receiver who landed in a great situation as the new slot receiver on a team with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the perimeter. Playing in the slot is where Smith-Njigba excelled at Ohio State in 2021 when he played with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Seattle uses a run-first offense which could hurt his chances to capture this award, but they also take deep shots down the field, which could lead to some big days for JSN.
We said no tight end has ever won the award but Dalton Kincaid (+3500) is not really a tight end, at least according to the Buffalo Bills who mentioned drafting him as more of a big slot wide receiver. Kincaid is a tremendous receiver and will be a huge mismatch in the middle of the field if the Bills scheme ways for him to be covered by slot cornerbacks. Think of the production Cole Beasley had catching passes from Josh Allen and now picture that with a 6’4″ frame and wide catch radius.
Jordan Addison (+1700) is in a great spot as the new number-two wide receiver across from Justin Jefferson, who will command tons of defensive attention and Jalin Hyatt (+2500) could be the main deep threat for a Giants team that is looking for playmakers on the outside and features one of the more innovative and skilled play-callers in Brian Daboll. That makes each player a decent longshot gamble if you wanted to place a small bet.
As of now, I’m fading Jahmyr Gibbs (+900) at this cost. Yes, Gibbs is talented. He has 4.3 speed, can catch passes out of the backfield, and even returned kicks in college; however, the Lions like to use a split backfield and just signed David Montgomery in the offseason. Even though D’Andre Swift is no longer in town, Gibbs is going to split carries and likely lose all of the red zone work to Montgomery, so I’m not convinced he can put up the stats to compete for this award.
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