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Patriots vs. Colts betting prediction, ATS pick

colts patriots prediction pick

Regardless of what the league does or doesn’t do with the Cleveland-Las Vegas mess Saturday afternoon, the highlight of the Saturday card is surely the night game when New England (9-4) heads to Indianapolis (7-6). The Patriots opened as small favorites, but sharp money quickly steamed the line the other way and now the Colts are laying as many as 2.5 points at several legal online sportsbooks.

Let’s take a look at this special Saturday Night Football NFL Week 15 matchup with our Patriots vs. Colts betting prediction and ATS pick.

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Patriots vs. Colts Prediction

After a 1-3 start to the season, including an 0-3 run at home, New England has gone on to win eight of its next nine games, including seven straight. Now, this surging unit is off a perfectly-timed late season bye and enters play well-rested against the Colts.

New England’s offensive game plan has been relatively simple. The Patriots have used power running to shorten games, keeping quarterback Mac Jones in plenty of second-and-manageable and third-and-short situations, which has both minimized risk and, simultaneously, amplified his confidence.

Indianapolis may know what’s coming, but will they be able to stop it? Prior to the windy affair in Buffalo last time out, New England’s offense had scored at least 24 points in each of its previous eight outings, averaging 33.8 points per game in that span. This week, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had extra time to work some wrinkles into his play calling. On the other sideline, so much of Indy’s success defensively this season has come via its league-leading ability to generate takeaways, but with the Patriots’ fairly conservative aerial attack and detailed-oriented approach, it will be difficult to replicate that in this game.

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Defensively, it’s hard to imagine New England improving much, even with the added prep time, and that is meant as compliment. The Pats have allowed just 7.2 points per game across its last five contests and boasts the league’s best scoring defense and third best yardage defense. The Patriots have also created the NFL’s third most turnovers per game (1.9), with that average spiking to 2.6 per game on the road, where New England is a perfect 6-0 SU this season.

Bill Belichick’s defensive approach is well-documented and you can expect it to follow suit here with the Pats likely to focus their energies on limiting Jonathan Taylor’s impact on the game. If Belichick is successful at this, it means taking the league’s leading rusher, a player with over 1,300 ground yards and 18 touchdowns, out of the equation, forcing Carson Wentz and the NFL’s 21st ranked passing attack to beat New England’s third ranked pass defense.

With Wentz’s history of holding onto the ball too long and struggling to play turnover-free football, this should be a huge advantage for the Patriots. And, given the fact that only one team has had a rusher top 100 yards against New England this season, it seems feasible that the Pats could execute this plan of attack.

Note: be sure to check out this look at the top Patriots-Colts player props.

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ATS Betting Trends

  • Belichick boasts a 19-4 SU and 13-9 ATS record on Saturdays, with his teams allowing just 16.7 points per game in those outings.
  • His teams have also gone 77-31 SU and 58-47 ATS in December games, conceding just 16.9 points per game, the least of any month. New England’s legendary head coach can also brag about a 70-46 ATS record as an underdog, including 48-35 ATS as a road dog.
  • Belichick’s groups will look to continue an 11-3 ATS run when entering play with a .500 or better record off an upset win against a team with a .500 or better record off a SU win of its own.
  • The Patriots have covered four of their last five outings as road underdogs and four straight against winning opposition. They have lost just one of their last six Saturday games ATS and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week. 
  • Indianapolis, meanwhile, has covered just three of its last 10 home games, including a 2-5 ATS record as favorites at Lucas Oil Stadium.
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Patriots vs. Colts ATS Pick

We are going to take this modest donation of points and back the surging Patriots, who seem to grow into themselves more with each passing week. They had players returning from an opt-out season in 2020, a massive number of high-profile free agent additions, and, of course, a rookie starting quarterback. It only made sense that it would take Belichick a bit of time to get this team on the same page.

While we believe this Colts team is well-built for this time of year, the Patriots match up well and need the win for any shot at that highly coveted playoff bye.

Look for the Patriots to shrink this game with the run and find a way to win, making it six straight ATS victories after allowing 14 points or fewer in their previous outing.

Our Pick: New England +2.5

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